Thursday, 4 March 2021

UK Open round 1-3 bets (part 2 - live updates on Friday)

If I'm going to give an actual bet recommendation, I will edit this on the fly tomorrow and post them in bold at the bottom - this is just a rough and ready guide for myself and others as to what sort of trigger level you want to look for as matches appear, do not treat it as gospel. I may very well go with some tips that contradict what I'm posting here if someone dominates a round 1/2 match, or if someone completely shits the bed but still somehow sneaks through. I'll only post up thoughts for round 2, round 3 has too many permutations and we can work that out more on the fly.

Kuivenhoven v Koltsov/Rodriguez - Probably looking Maik as 2/1 dog regardless of opponent
Barry v Nentjes/Burnett - Tricky, probably say Keane would be 4/6 or so against Geert? Dunno about against Richie
Mitchell v Peters/Williams - Seems flippy against Williams. Would guess Scott would be 1/2 or there abouts against Luc?
Teehan v Baggish/Claydon - Would guess that Baggish is a similar price against Ciaran as against Brett, so about 4/7? If Brett comes through maybe Ciaran's a small favourite?
Smith v van Peer/Schindler - Jeff and Martin seem similarly matched long haul. Martin's in a bit better form I think, so maybe he's about 8/11? No clue on Berry, as he's a fair dog I'd assume the same again?
Hamilton v Edhouse/Mol - Guess this'd be around a 4/5 Hammer evens Edhouse game. Damian would surely be around 3/1 again, maybe slightly shorter.
Lerchbacher/Williams v Mathers/Shepherd - Both of these seem flippy, we don't have much on Lerchbacher, and what we do have on Jim seems a bit of an underestimate. Would think that the winner of the second game should be about 4/6 roughly, but would be heavily reliant on first round reads to touch this one.
Noguera v Hudson/de Vreede - Think Hudson has a bit of an edge here, maybe 4/6? If Ryan gets through, probably a coin toss?
Kay/McDine v Rodriguez/Raman - Urgh, four players we have no read on, or at least reliable data. Would take a punt that Rowby would enter against McDine at 4/6, maybe slightly shorter?
Telnekes v de Vos/Zonneveld - If Niels comes through, he should be favoured against Derk. 8/11 seems like a par score.
Tabern v Gawlas/Vos - Adam's probably favoured, but not by much. Seems like 4/5 would be about right, Alan is competent enough. Would probably think about Vos if we're seeing 5/2.
KFL v Murnan/Dennant - Murnan rates 60/40 against Kai, but is playing much better than that.
Collins v McGuirk/Main - Snapping off either player against Collins at odds against. Robert's figures are worse than Jack's.
de Decker v Griffin/Fisher - Would imagine that Mike comes in as a solid favourite. Hard to say how much, perhaps 4/9 or 2/5, that kind of area?
Taylor/Michael v Lukeman/Verberk - Would think Lukeman would have a small edge over Michael. Maybe slightly more over Taylor. Neither's by much. If Verberk comes through, reassess everything.
Blades v Jones/Taylor - Blades would be close against Jones. Very small edge, 4/5 or so. If Taylor comes through, would guess he's 2/1.
Brown/Carlin v Jackson/Rafferty - No clue. Maybe Carlin, if he played Rafferty, would be 8/11? Seem to be saying that things are 60/40 a lot, but that's how it seems to me.
Thomas v Barstow/Wenig - Based on the Super Series, Barstow against Thomas would be too close to call. Lukas isn't that far behind.
Borland v Davis/Doets - Assuming Kevin comes through, he should be matched up very evenly against Borland. Maybe William's got a tiny edge.
McEwan/Bialecki v van der Wal - Don't think Jitse's too impressive. Complete anyone's game situation. If either of the first round players look good and we can get evens, go with it.
Lovely v Heaver/Pronk - Eddie and Jason seem like basically the same player.

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