Friday, 31 January 2025

World Masters day 2

Day one was, all in all, pretty good, if you'd gone for any sort of combination of what I was thinking outside of just taking Hempel, you had a solid result, with the sizings I went for, bankroll bumped 20% so will always take that, what of day two though?

Wade/de Decker - First match is between two players straight through to this stage, and one that feels like it should be pretty close intuitively. Mike's probably a tad better, and is a tad better in the markets as well, I can't see any sort of value in this one at all.

Chisnall/Menzies - We've got a relatively recent TV rematch, that last one didn't go well for Menzies at all so hopefully for him, whose quali went well, it'll be better this time around. Market has it fairly close but just favouring Chizzy, I'm thinking maybe it should be a touch more in favour than it is, memories of their previous match up certainly won't harm things.

Clayton/Schindler - Ought to be another one that's fairly competitive, Clayton is the bookies' favourite but not by much. Maybe he should be a couple of ticks better off, I'm seeing very marginal value on the exchanges for Clayton, but it'd be a bit more if we look more form based, it's only a 50/50 sort of split on full year data (counting when Jonny was playing crap in 2024 H1) that's dragging it down to just a small edge.

Aspinall/Gilding - Got to think Nathan, having accepted a Premier League place, is over the injury issues he had, so is probably close to his best. That said, the projections track more and more towards Gilding the more recent you get, which seems counterintuitive but it is what it is, to the point where the weighted predictions say coinflip. There is a tad of a consistency advantage that Nathan has, but I'm thinking that there's enough there to probably take the underdog to pull off the upset.

Dobey/Searle - This is one that feels like it should be a fun watch, and one that the market isn't able to split massively, but is favouring Dobey. You'd think with Chris having pushed on largely in 2024 it might be a bit wider, but it's not and I'm only seeing this as around 55/45, so nothing really worth punting on here.

Littler/Baetens - Good to see Andy hit a bit of a vein of form to get to this stage, but this is obviously a bastard of a draw, I'm only seeing him as having around a 10% chance such is the level of play that Luke's producing, so there's no value in the markets here.

van Gerwen/Brooks - Bradley has made some nice developments of late and is playing well, but again, this is a tough draw, it's not as one sided as what Andy's running in to, but I'd be setting a fair line at around 5/1, which actually gives a tiny bit of value on betting on Michael to do the job we'd expect him to do here.

Anderson/van den Bergh - Gary is continuing to be a pretty solid player, while it turns out that Dimitri's put out a Dutch language interview indicating he's been playing through injury for a while. Maybe he's over it now - it's not going to dissuade me from betting on Anderson, a line of 1.4 seems to be undervaluing him somewhat, but I'll just tone my bet sizing down a touch in case we see a van den Bergh that is better than what we've been seeing of late.

Should get round two proper thoughts out later this evening.

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