The semi final games

Dobey/van Gerwen - This one reads like it should be moderately tight. van Gerwen's been here before so many times, where as it is unchartered waters for Dobey, who's pushed forward to a new round after two straight quarter finals. I think this one may play out a bit tighter than the market is suggesting, which is roughly around van Gerwen two times in three - Chris to me is showing a bit more than 40% chances, although the chances decline from year long to more seasonal stats, but a first glance indicates there could be a spot of value on the underdog.

Bunting/Littler - This one however looks more one sided. We all love Bunting's game but Littler looks on another level right now, getting more than half his legs tonight in twelve darts or less. This is looking like a projection of about 85/15, with the better stats coming in the more form based samples for Luke, Betfair doesn't have a match market up yet, but we can use the "to make the final" market as a proxy, which is maybe ever so slightly undervaluing Littler, possibly on account of it not quite getting volume from after he actually won his quarter yet. I can't see this one offering real value though.

As an aside, in terms of the Premier League, I've got to think that the line up is fairly close to set. The two Lukes and MvG will be there, Cross will retain top four if it's a Littler/MvG final, then Bunting and Dobey I think have probably done enough in this one to book returns. That leaves two spots. I would probably chuck Price in, a quarter final is fine, he looks like he's playing better right now than he has been, he will sell tickets and assuming Ando doesn't want it, he's the next highest player in the year long scoring charts, the game is there. We still need an eighth though - I wouldn't want to make that call, but how about we have a rework of the Contenders? Have the eighth guy rotate each week, but do it with the following gimmicks:

- It's a secret to everybody. The PDC should surely be able to pull off such shenanigans. NOBODY outside the tournament directors know until the entrance music hits, Royal Rumble style.

- The contenders' points count to the league table.

- For weeks 8/16, fans can vote for which of the previous seven contenders they want to appear in the fixed bracket week

- If a contender wins the week, they claim the spot for the rest of the tournament.

We'd need 14 players tops for this to work, are there 14 players that we could think of? Sure for me. Let's just work down the yearly scoring and look at who is up there that we haven't seen in the main PL before. We'd have the following in order:

Heta, Nijman, Noppert, Rock, Searle, Ross Smith, Menzies, de Decker, Wattimena, van Veen, van Duijvenbode, Scutt, Ratajski, Joyce

Now maybe you tweak that list a bit. Schindler's the next man out but would have obvious marketing value. I guess chucking Edhouse into the list would be fine, you know, on account of winning a major. Rydz has climbed up to just outside the numbers as well. I truly think it's the perfect season with a lack of real top names making a case for themselves, and lots of younger, hungry and developing players making names for themselves, that this could work out pretty darned well. Let me know your thoughts.