Dobey/Price - Wafer thin game. Really, really tight. Can't see it as more than 51/49 in terms of Dobey over reasonable samples. More reasonable samples do favour Chris, but there really isn't much here other than to say this should be the pick of the quarters and let's enjoy it.
MvG/Rydz - Now here it's a bit different. This is pretty much floating at 3-1 in favour of van Gerwen. This is fairly consistent across all samples, and bear in mind that all those samples will include Callan's admittedly great play in this tournament. I'm going to tone my bet sizing down fractionally as a result, but only just, this is a big difference in quality of opponent and a huge difference in terms of what it'd do for the player in question.
Wright/Bunting - Another one where we've got a player who is offering all sorts of red flags in terms of trying to get a read, Wright appears to be both ridiculously ill but hugely outperforming his historical stats both at the same time, and it's hard to say what to trust. The answer is probably neither, and fortunately the standard projections are telling us that it is a clear no bet (although, oddly, the pointer is more in favour of Wright within that no bet window) so we can just leave the questions entirely.
Littler/Aspinall - Kind of the same really. Luke is a huge favourite, a price of about 1/5 doesn't really give us the edge, Nathan may be playing better than the historical stats state, and that's not unreasonable to think, but we can just ignore this one as well as the line looks in the right ballpark.
So pretty just back van Gerwen from where I'm sat.
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