The Sunday games

de Graaf/Nebrida - Kind of hard to call this one, given the relative lack of data on Paolo, but Jeffrey was given a far tougher than anticipated test by Sweeting before stunning Gary Anderson, while Nebrida dodged all the bullets against Jim Williams before despatching a very disappointing Ross Smith. Paolo doesn't have enough recent data (indeed it's probably all from this tournament and nothing else) to give a reliable three month trend spot, but the longer data are both at 69% (nice) for de Graaf, which doesn't indicate any real secure value, although Jeffrey is probably overvalued a tad.

Doets/Ratajski - Kevin fairly easily got rid of van Leuven before causing one of the bigger upsets to date in eliminating Michael Smith, while Krzysztof was involved in a high quality game against Toylo but one where it didn't seem like he was in a huge amount of danger. The market seems to be overreacting to Kevin having one good game, Ratajski is just too consistently good and this might be one of the strongest edges we have to date in this event.

van den Bergh/Rydz - Dimitri didn't end up having too much trouble defeating Dylan Slevin, while Callan looked fantastic in his first round game, then didn't look quite as good against Schindler but still won 3-0 anyway. This feels like a standard no bet game, I'm thinking Dimitri is better, but it's only around 55/45 or there or there abouts, and as the market is only just shading things in the Belgian's favour, we can avoid this one.

Evans/Owen - Final last 32 game and it's between two players nobody thought would be here, at least not both of them, Ricky getting through two 3-2 slugfests against Mathers and Chisnall, while Owen was not made to work quite so hard against Zonneveld and Clemens. This is a weird one - both sets of longer data can't really separate the players, but the most recent sample size, which although not the largest, is enough to be used, does favour Robert and does favour him strongly in consistency, making the overall number 55/45 and with Ricky being favoured the other way, makes Stack Attack a decent play in my eyes.

Clayton/Price - Now we kick into the real business end, with two World Cup teammates facing off having both been tested in last set deciders. An easy one to avoid this for me, Price is projecting a touch better than 60/40 for me, which given the lines is right in the middle of the no bet territory, it is influenced a tad by the full year data which doesn't really help Jonny, but I'm not sure it swings things enough to consider taking a shot on the Ferret.

Humphries/Wright - I think this one can be avoided from a betting standpoint entirely. I was on Peter against Wattimena, but when I saw his complete lack of interest in the walk on, supposedly due to illness (which miraculously first got known about 10 minutes before the game as usual), I took the option to cash out for break even. Oops, but as we really can't get an accurate read on where Wright's game is actually at, I'm not even going to suggest anything for this one.