Cameron Menzies (#38 FRH, 92.67 (#15), 590-459 (56.24% (#13))
Leonard Gates (#106 FRH, 87.27 (#74), 181-141 (56.21% (#14))
Bit of a weird season for Aspinall. The obvious thing to point out is that a lot of the season may have been affected by injury - he did take somewhat of a break after the Matchplay, missing a group of five events straight after having already taken two pairs of events off, and similarly had a spell of four Euro Tours in a row where he was absent. He came back around September time - with an odd interview where it sounded like he was indicating he was still a fair bit away from coming back, only to show up on the Pro Tour two days after that event finished. I think in the circumstances, looking back at what he did pre-Matchplay would be misleading, so let's look at what he's done since. He did play the last eleven Pro Tour events, but only made two board finals, but generally speaking the averages were pretty good, only dropping under 90 a couple of times and cracking three figures on more than one occasion, which was just enough to creep into the Minehead field, where he knocked out the number one seed Chris Dobey before losing to Niels Zonneveld. He picked up Euro Tour wins over Ratajski and Chisnall amongst others, which was just enough to see him creep into the Dortmund field only to draw Luke Humphries, while possible opponent here Menzies stopped him from qualifying for the Grand Slam. It's always hard to tell exactly where somebody is at in this sort of spot, but there's enough decent signs to make me think he's on the right track and probably playing better than the statistics suggests.
And he may need every little bit of that, as he's drawn a possible stinker in Cameron Menzies, who if not the most dangerous opponent he could have drawn, was certainly top of the Pro Tour rankings and would be in the conversation of everyone who has even the slightest bit of knowledge. Menzies' talent has been known for years, but 2024 has seen him finally make the breakthrough on the big stage, and he is throwing a lot, lot better than the rankings suggest, and may be getting even better now that he's finally cut back some of the day job. Cameron was consistently pushing further and further on the floor, getting a run of five straight quarter finals (and six in seven) mid season, which included a first final where he lost to Chris Dobey by an odd break, but he would claim a ranking title in the penultimate event of the season over Stephen Bunting. This would give him more TV appearances - after a bastard UK Open draw against Gary Anderson, Menzies would just miss the Matchplay, but make the Grand Prix, although there his preparation seemed rushed and he didn't win a single leg. He would qualify for the Grand Slam and get out of a group including Noppert, Schindler and Greaves (only just though), then edge out James Wade in the last sixteen before losing in a deciding leg to Mickey Mansell with the draw being wide open for him. Most recently he beat Jim Williams before losing to Ryan Joyce at Minehead, maybe a bit disappointing but everything's pointing in the right direction for Menzies.
In his way is Leonard Gates, who returns for a second appearance here after a year absence, and qualifies as a result of topping the CDC rankings. On that tour, Gates was able to win three titles, to finish level on points with Jim Long and just ahead of Stowe Buntz. Nice performance, but he was able to do a bit more in the CDC world, being able to claim the Continental Cup with wins over Alex Spellman and Jim Long at the business end of the event. This qualified him for the Grand Slam, where he picked up a win over Peter Wright and gave Rob Cross and Martin Lukeman fairly competitive games. Gates would also make a surprise appearance at the UK Open, winning one of the Riley's qualifiers and knocking out Conan Whitehead, Rhys Griffin and Jim Williams to make the last 64, where he would also face Martin Lukeman, ending up with a 10-5 reverse. Leonard's also played much of the seniors circuit, but seemingly hasn't made as much of an impression in 2024 as he did in 2023, and continues to do enough in the WDF events to maintain a top ten ranking in the world in that system, so would have been seeded for that event if he hadn't qualified here.
I think both players in round one will be mildly unhappy with the draw, Gates especially so - Gates very much has a puncher's chance with the sort of game that can win a set early, and if he gets off to a fast start then who knows, but I think Menzies is north of 80% to claim a second round berth. There against Aspinall, it would be very hard to judge things for obvious reasons stated above, but the projections show a coinflip. While Nathan is probably playing better in the second half of the year than the first so may be underrated, Menzies may be the same based on confidence and likely better preparation, so I think it remains too close to call and a real highlight match of the pre-Christmas line-up, assuming Leonard doesn't spoil the party.
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