Florian Hempel (#53 FRH, 89.44 (#49), 334-326 (50.61%, #61))
Jeffrey de Zwaan (#83 FRH, 88.17 (#69), 225-266 (45.82%, #84))
Seems like it's been a quiet year for Daryl, who's hanging on in the top 32 and still just about playing top 32 level darts, there or there abouts. On the floor, Gurney had a fairly respectable season, winning his board on more than ten occasions, and peaking with a mid season final, losing a deciding leg to Alan Soutar in that final in June, making a further three semi finals and two quarters, running into Chris Dobey in those events a disproportionate amount of the time. In Europe, Daryl was in and out of the seeded players, playing all the events and having some good runs, hitting a semi final in Hildesheim, having a fairly easy path right up until he faced Luke Littler, and two more quarters in Hungary and Switzerland, either beating the number 1 seed or whoever beat the number 1 seed prior to two losses to Ryan Searle. The TV hasn't been quite as kind as he's struggled somewhat for results, with the odd exception. He drew Ross Smith and Gerwyn Price in the UK Open and Matchplay and lost both of those, which is fair enough, would stun Michael van Gerwen in Leicester then, with the draw somewhat wide open, disappointingly lose to Joe Cullen, avenge that loss to Price at the Euros before losing to van Duijvenbode, then after failing to qualify for the Grand Slam (which he's not been at for five years now, surprisingly), he got a bit of a run going at Minehead, beating an out of sorts Peter Wright and then Michael Smith, before Connor Scutt was far too good for what Daryl was able to do. Gurney had a couple of cameos in unranked TV events, but the story's generally been better on floor than on stage, and maybe lacking in results compared to how he's playing.
Florian is another who it seems has been having a quiet year, making what is a fourth straight appearance at a venue which has generally been kind to him having got into the field as one of the last quarter of Pro Tour qualifiers. Stage appearances have been very limited for Hempel this year - only playing in the two Minehead events, getting one win at both, in the UK Open it was Mario Vandenbogaerde he beat before losing to Gian van Veen, then in the Players Championship Finals, he got a solid win over Jonny Clayton before dropping off a bit against Dirk van Duijvenbode. European Tour events were also limited, just making the two events (one as an alternate) and only getting the one win over Callan Rydz, one of his losses actually coming against potential second round opponent Gurney. It was mainly the floor where he did most of his work - ending in the top 50 in averages, Hempel was solid in not losing early on (only 11 first round losses), but only picked up the two board wins, turning one into a semi final beating a pretty good line up including Clayton, Searle and Chisnall, so it was pretty much an entire season of picking up a grand or fifteen hundred quid on regular occasions to get him to Minehead and get him here, and if you can keep doing that you're pretty much a top 64 player and will keep on keeping your card for as long as you can do it - which is exactly what Florian has done.
Jeffrey was a huge name in the sport around the late 10's when he was threatening to become the next huge big thing and reaching the semi finals of the Matchplay, but his career has stalled somewhat of late, to the point where he needed to regain his card in 2023 and, if he doesn't get past these two players (as a bare minimum), will need to do the same again following a mediocre 2023 where, a good UK Open run aside, he was getting mediocre results, and it's been much the same this year, not making this event automatically but returning after a stellar display in the PDPA qualifier, where after a sluggish opening game Jeffrey averaged 99 against van der Velde, nearly 105 against Krcmar and then 98 against Paul Krohne, arguably the best we've seen him play in half a decade. If he can do that sort of thing here, and we know that his ceiling is at that sort of level, he'll be alright, but he's just not been showing it consistently. The only TV showing was the UK Open, where he would beat van der Velde (again) prior to losing to Patrick Geeraets, and it's not like he was on the stage much on the European Tour either, making just a pair of appearances where he did at least get to the seeds both times, but the seed was van Gerwen both times. This leaves the huge bulk of data being from the floor - here his numbers have not been great, only scraping into the top 100 in averages, and the results haven't been great either - losing in the first round as often as not, and only winning his board on a singular occasion, leaving him over five grand short of making the Players Championship Finals. Yes, he's had some bad draws, but looking at who's knocked him out there's plenty of average or frankly worse players doing that. We know the peak, we just need to see it more often, and given he's still only 28, there is still plenty of time for him to get back there.
The first round is fascinating. Florian's been doing the better numbers all year, but that PDPA qualifier showing makes me think this one could well turn out to be closer than the two in three chances that Hempel is projecting at with season long stats. Hempel and Gurney actually project pretty close to each other (although Hempel is more inconsistent), while a Gurney/JdZ second round match projects similar to the first round, although with the same provisos, doubling down on that given that if Jeffrey does get through, it's likely going to give a second data point to say we should look at current form fairly strongly rather than seasonal statistics.
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