Connor Scutt (#42 FRH, 91.96 (#23), 431-369 (53.88%, #34))
Ben Robb (#127 FRH, 88.30 (#63), 5-9 (35.71%, #92))
Weird season for Damon. While he did make the best run he's yet made in a TV major, it seems as if he's really not done that much, despite statistically being a clear top 10 player whichever way you look at it. That run was at the UK Open, where he didn't have a straightforward path to the quarters, at which point he knocked out Luke Littler, but would tail off in the semi final disappointingly against Dimitri van den Bergh. Outside of that on TV, he got three back to back first round defeats, not playing badly in the Matchplay or Grand Prix but just running into a better player on the day, before a bit of a disappointing loss to Pietreczko in the European Championship, although there Ricardo did find a hundred average. Damon didn't qualify for the Grand Slam, and a last sixteen exit at the PC Finals is fine given it was against Humphries. Damon was surprisingly lacking in titles at lower levels - only making three final sessions on the European Tour (down from eight the previous season), of which only one was a semi final run, and a pair of Pro Tour titles, one early and one in the summer, both with dominant displays over Chris Dobey and Ryan Searle respectively. Damon's now into the top 10 in the world and is only defending third round money here, so ought to be able to hold that spot, but he's at the stage now where if he wants to push higher, for example to get into the Premier League which, if you're looking purely on stats, he has a claim to be included, he needs to make a big TV run, ideally a final, and he is good enough to bink one - although with a path that might look like de Decker, Bunting and Humphries to get out of the quarter, it's going to be a tough ask.
Scutt has had a fantastic 2024 season, and will make a return for a second straight appearance following last year's second round exit to Gerwyn Price. Connor would have made it here as a result of finishing top of the Challenge Tour rankings, but made enough from the Pro Tour to not only get here by right, but to likely claim a tour card by right, currently just in the top 64 but with an extra spot to play with given the likelihood Steve Beaton returns his card. On that Challenge Tour circuit, Scutt won two titles, made a further two finals, and was involved in a further nine events where he reached the last sixteen, as well as finishing top of the average table by a clear point and a half from Darryl Pilgrim, such was the difference in level of play between himself and the field. This afforded Scutt the chance to play much of the Pro Tour season, where he would reach three quarter finals, as well as one final - there Gary Anderson would be too good, but that sort of run, along with a finish solidly in the top 32 of the averages, gives you an idea of how good he is right now. He has also been able to make some TV appearances - making the UK Open through the Riley's qualifiers, he was perhaps unfortunate to draw Wesley Plaisier in round one and lose a decider, while his Challenge Tour win got him to the Grand Slam, where a 5-0 win over Dave Chisnall set him up well, but Ritchie Edhouse and then Ross Smith defeated him to leave him third in the group. His probable best showing of the year however was at Minehead, where he would reach a first (PDC) major quarter, taking out Martin Lukeman, Mario Vandenbogaerde and Daryl Gurney, before coming up one leg short against Dirk van Duijvenbode. Another excellent example of how losing your card may set you up stronger for the future.
Hard to say where Ben is. I've got nothing in the database outside of his appearance here last year, where he was able to win legs in every set of his first round game against Richard Veenstra, but not be able to turn any of them into actual set victories. This is his fifth appearance in total, and while he's always looked OK, he's only won the two sets in his previous four showings. What's he done this year? Well he made it here through winning the DPNZ qualifier, beating tour card holder Haupai Puha in the final and getting a couple of 90 averages along the way, but would only finish third in the DPNZ tour rankings, finishing behind both Kayden Milne and Mark Cleaver, averaging down in the low 80's (although with the usual level of opposition caveat), and picking up just two of the twelve titles, something done by three other players. Ben did return to the World Cup for another year, this year with Puha, and nearly cause a big upset, while both themselves and Germany beat Finland, it would be the Germans who would take a deciding leg to make it to the knockout stages, waiting on a two darter after 12 as Germany broke. Robb maintains a top 16 ranking in the WDF, where he did win the gold-ranked New Zealand Open as well as two other minor titles, but lack of data from New Zealand makes it hard to comment on what he actually needed to do to win them.
Find it hard to say that Robb has too much of a chance to improve his record. We know he's alright, but I do think he'll find it hard to progress his game unless he plays against higher level opposition more often. Scutt's a very tough draw and I think Connor should be able to advance pretty comfortably, what winning chances he has I wouldn't want to estimate simply down to having basically zero data at a high enough level of play on Ben. Agaisnt Heta, he's going to come up against a whole different level of player, but Scutt is not that far behind - the numbers do not lie and I'm thinking he has considerable equity here, the projections showing him more or less at the 40% level, which doesn't seem that unrealistic at all.
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