The Friday games

Heta/Woodhouse - This one's moderately interesting, Damon was made to work by Scutt in the opening round, while Luke got a pretty trivial opening round win against Ilagan, before putting aside an under par Mike de Decker, only having lost the one set to this stage. The market is solidly favouring Heta, but maybe not enough, he's getting better relatively speaking against Woodhouse as we get more form based but looks around three in four at the very worst.

Clayton/Gurney - Two players back into action fairly quickly, with both coming through 3-2 victories in sets and under varying levels of danger as to whether they'd get through their opening games, Clayton arguably more so, and Gurney I think played a tad better in the first game. Weird spot for a projection, Jonny I think is a touch undervalued, although the most bullish sets for Gurney are both the full data set and the shortest term one, and the edge certainly isn't huge.

Bunting/Razma - Stephen probably wasn't at his best in the opening game, but it was still enough to get through a dangerous opponent in Gotthardt, while Razma got a pair of 3-1 wins, Kist looking really good early before falling off while Dirk was just not on it at all. Market seems to have the assessment round about right, Madars has a chance but it's only around one in four.

Price/Cullen - Gerwyn had relatively little trouble handling Keane Barry, while Joe put together his best game in quite some time to shock Wessel Nijman. The market is for me overreacting way, way too much to Joe having one good match - I find it hard to reconcile a line just the wrong side of 1.5 with a win chance (where here I'm averaging separate sample sizes, so these will sample his good game every time) of over 80% for Price. If Joe fucks me over again good luck to him.

Wattimena/Wright - Jermaine has come through two very swift wins over Stefan Bellmont and James Wade, and continues to look the best he has ever done, while Wright averaged several points lower than Plaisier but was able to scrape home with the win. This may look ridiculous, but Wright seems a lot closer than what the market suggests. I've got him around 40% on longer sample sizes, and then from September onwards he actually projects as a favourite around the other way (and around the other size the other way) - albeit with a fairly big consistency differential. The eye test says it's mad, but well north of 2/1 seems just wrong.

Humphries/Kenny - Not a huge deal to see here, Luke was not tested in his game and barely needed to get out of neutral to get a win, while Nick's dropped just the one set but doesn't look like producing anywhere near the numbers he'll need to be competitive in this one. Nick may be ever so slightly undervalued, but prices in the low double digits are not what is needed to have confidence in any sort of edge in causing the upset of all time.