Jim Williams (#51 FRH, 91.13 (#32), 313-287 (52.17%, #44))
Paolo Nebrida (#126 FRH, 86.80 (#76), 100-79 (55.87%, #16))
It's been a good year for Smith. Very, very good year. For my money, established himself as clearly a top 16 player, the numbers are all there, the results are there, I just don't think he quite gets the credit he deserves on occasions. Let's go through what he's done - on the floor, he got another title, maybe making hard weather of it against Plaisier and only winning by the odd leg, but a win is a win, and he was to augment that with several other good runs including four semi final appearances, including three in a row earlier in the season, which is no mean feat. On the Euro Tour, Smith had by far his best season - having only had a singular semi final prior to 2024, he made huge inroads, reaching two finals, only losing by the odd break to Gary Anderson and Dave Chisnall in those finals, along with another two semi finals and just the four occasions where he was not able to be involved on the final day's proceedings. On telly, the UK Open could maybe have gone better, nicking an expected game against Gurney 10-8 but falling to Clayton in the next round by the same scoreline. He had his best run at the Matchplay to date by defeating Josh Rock and then Gerwyn Price prior to losing to James Wade, then it was Clayton again who did for him in Leicester having beaten Gian van Veen. He didn't play bad against Woodhouse in a game that looked like it played closer than the scoreline in Dortmund, then more disappointingly he was a distant second best at the Grand Slam against Lukeman in the last sixteen after coming through a very competitive group. That said, Smith would make his best major run outside of the one he binked at Minehead, where he reached a semi final beating van den Bergh, Plaisier, Gilding and Williams, and would not let Littler run riot in an 11-9 semi final defeat. One of the biggest power scorers in the game, I don't know why he seems undervalued.
Jim has maybe stepped back a little in 2024. Still trying to juggle work and darts, he's dropped a bit from someone who, if playing the whole tour, would have made the Matchplay etc, to someone who I get a sense is just coasting to holding a top 64 spot and not really pushing on to where he could be, which if personal circumstances dictate is fine, it just seems like a bit of a wasted talent. On the Pro Tour, Jim finished within the top 32 on the averages, but missed a handful of events and wasn't really able to make deep inroads into those that he did play, only losing in the first round eight times but only winning his board three times, never pushing forward to beyond the quarter final stages which, as a previous Pro Tour winner, might be disappointing. Jim wouldn't have appeared in the European Tour at all were it not for two appearances as replacements late in the season, in Hungary he defeated fellow alternate Alan Soutar before only just losing to Martin Schindler, while in Switzerland he narrowly lost to Karel Sedlacek. Jim's singles appearances were limited to Minehead but he did appear at the World Cup for a debut after Price withdrew late, and in a surprise Wales lost to Croatia in the first knockout round, then in those Minehead appearances, Williams disappointingly lost to Leonard Gates and then maybe unsurprisingly lost to Cameron Menzies, to leave him with a relatively disappointing season. Still, the numbers are fine, and we know from his BDO days and his previous win of a PDC title that he has a knack of winning, so let's see how he does.
Paolo is here for a third straight year, and a third appearance overall, having lost in his debut two years ago in a tight one to Danny Jansen, while last year he lost a similarly tight game to Simon Whitlock. Nebrida is back on account of finishing in third place on the Asian Tour, where he was able to win four titles throughout the course of the season, reach a further two finals, and outside of a small number of players who only played a couple of tournaments, finish with the second highest average on the entire tour, only behind Tomoya Goto. This would get him into the Asian Championship, where he got through the group with little worries, but would be surprisingly beaten in the last sixteen by some Malaysian player I don't know much about. Nebrida did get a call up to the Bahrain Darts Masters, where he pushed Michael Smith to a deciding leg, but other than that, it's hard to say where his game is at - the WDF doesn't seem to have any penetration in the Philippines, he's not even ranked in their system, so it's just the Asian Tour and that which we can judge him off, where we know what we always knew - he's alright, but he isn't spectacular.
Jim should be fine in round one. We have enough data on Paolo to be somewhat confident in a prediction and it's saying Williams 80/20, and I think most of us are agreed that Jim is better than his ranking suggests. Against Smith, then it's kind of the same, I think most of us agree Ross is better than his ranking suggests, so there is somewhat of a differential, but it's not gigantic, I'm projecting Williams (assuming he wins round one obv) to nick it one in three times, which I think the fan who knows how good the players are would not say is outlandish in the slightest.
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