Doets/Dobey - Kevin got away with one against Ratajski, going down 2-0 offering nothing then being reliant on Krzysztof butchering a stack of match darts, while Chris got through a good game with Rock, where he was just that little bit better. Naturally the projections are loving Chris hugely as they are in every Doets game, if Kevin continues to godmode his way through this tournament then I'll guess we just get stung again, but that's just a risk I'm going to take.
Owen/Rydz - Someone we didn't think would get to the quarter finals is going to get to the quarter finals, but enough about Peter Wright, Robert got through a pretty nip and tuck game before he got the key break against Ricky Evans, while Callan continues to roll back the years playing at near peak form with another great win, this time over Dimitri. Callan's projections are ahead of Owen's for longer spells, for most recent form it does swing hugely in his favour, but it's not quite enough to make us think Owen isn't undervalued, although it will be for just the tiniest of tiny stabs.
Pietreczko/Aspinall - Ricardo looked pretty solid in eliminating Scott Williams, while Nathan was nowhere near as good as a 4-0 scoreline against Andrew Gilding suggests he actually might have been. The line in this one looks pretty good, I'm not seeing any edge whatsoever either way, Nathan's a favourite but not by much, with Ricardo playing like shit in the early stages (where Nathan was strongly favoured), maybe you can make a case for the German, but that was when Aspinall wasn't playing great either so call that a wash.
Bunting/Woodhouse - Stephen was very solid in a relatively routine win over Madars Razma, while Woodhouse had to overcome a nine and a huge deficit against Damon Heta to get over the line. Stephen is favoured here and correctly so, looking pretty solid in all samples but a few percent better in the more recent ones, it all relates to Luke having maybe just more than a one in four shot which more or less takes the game out of gambling interest.
van Gerwen/de Graaf - Michael was given a surprisingly tough time by Brendan Dolan, while Jeffrey got through Paolo Nebrida in a little bit of a gift of a game. Surely de Graaf's run comes to an end here, 1.2 I don't think is fully representing the edge MvG has in this one, it's not a big edge but it's enough for me to have a small play.
Littler/Joyce - For the second time in two games Luke was made to work, and for twice in two games he should have been 2-0 down in sets, but meh, he got through Ian White, while Ryan needed to go through an extremely tough and good quality game with Ryan Searle which went all seven sets. Think the market is ever, ever so slightly underrating Joyce here, but it's the sort of thing where the margins of error I build into the model say it's only worth a couple of nickels on Ryan so yeah, move on.
Should be back on NYE for the quarters.
No comments:
Post a Comment