Niels Zonneveld (#44 FRH, 89.93 (#44), 433-402 (51.86%, #52))
Robert Owen (#77 FRH, 88.58 (#59), 243-273 (47.09%, #81))
Clemens is hanging on in the top 32, but for how much longer it is unknown given he is defending semi final money in this event, even a quarter final would not guarantee him a top 32 spot after the worlds, that's just how precarious a position he is in. Still without a ranking title, he didn't come particularly close to adding one (as Schindler did), with a floor record of just the one quarter final all season, and while Gabriel did get enough board finals and other appearances to get into Minehead, albeit ranked fairly low down which threw him into a first round tie with Luke Humphries, that's not the sort of record that someone in the top 32 should be producing. The European Tour wasn't much better, he did play most of the events and made the final day on a few occasions with a best run to the quarters in Sindelfingen, but it would only be enough to scrape into the field at Dortmund as one of the last few in, where he lost to van Gerwen in round one. His floor results have regressed enough that he failed to make both the Matchplay and Grand Prix for the first time since 2019, and his only other ranking appearance at the UK Open saw a tough opening tie against Danny Noppert, which Danny narrowly won. It makes you wonder if confidence is an issue, but the darts he's throwing look somewhat better than the results he's been getting, so with the draw not being the worst, maybe Clemens can use this event to spark a revival in form.
Looking to stop him will be Niels Zonneveld, a player still well south of 30 who it seems like we've been watching forever. Niels has been one of those players in the past who's been kind of too good not to have a tour card, but not quite good enough to retain it, this season has seen what feels like genuine progression to solidify a top 64 spot. The highlight would be in the final Euro Tour of the season in Prague, where Niels would reach the semi finals, knocking out seeds in Dave Chisnall and Ricardo Pietreczko, only losing to Kim Huybrechts by the odd leg in 13 and finishing an agonising £250 short of making a European Championship debut. The floor has also seen progression with three quarter finals, albeit mostly in the first half of the season, which allowed for a bit of a Minehead cameo, eliminating Willie O'Connor and Nathan Aspinall before the in form Mike de Decker was too strong. This is now his fourth appearance here, and he got his first win twelve months ago over Darren Webster, and he'll be looking to at least repeat that, if not go further, it genuinely feels like this is the best he's ever played and that he has good chances to put a little bit of a run together.
His opponent will be Robert Owen, whose appearance here is a bit fortunate as if it were not for Dom Taylor's issues, Owen would have been the last man out, and while he qualified through the Pro Tour list, Jeffrey de Graaf making it both ways shunts him into the international qualifiers list. A bit weird, but it's where we are. Robert is here for a second appearance, returning after a year away and looking to go slightly better than a narrow defeat to Andrew Gilding two years ago. Probably still best known for his UK Open semi final run now over six years ago, Owen has had a moderately quiet season, picking up a win over Karel Sedlacek in the only major he played this year, but nearly beating Kevin Doets to get into the pot with the big boys. Owen has shown some flashes - he's made a couple of floor quarters, firstly on the opening weekend where he defeated James Wade, then later on in October where he defeated Ross Smith, but losing out in round one more often than not saw him miss Minehead by a couple of grand. However, a couple of European cameos where he defeated multiple Krzysztofs in consecutive weekends would give him enough cash to creep into the field.
There is not an enormous amount between the two first round players. Less than a point and a half is not huge, and while Niels is better, it's only around 55/45 better on the projections, which I feel might be a bit of an underestimate and could be nearer 60/40. That said, Robert is basically on a free hit so maybe that comes into play. Clemens is a bit better again, but once more, it's not prohibitive, it's nowhere near a 2-1 shot, closer to 60/40, and I think with the players' respective form and confidence, 60/40 would be the better shout than 65/35, Owen being that little bit further off where Gabriel would have a tad more than a two in three chance. Genuinely competitive little section of the draw, but one that might have the potential of turning into a tough watch and one for the purists.
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