Karel Sedlacek (#63 FRH, 90.77 (#36), 352-339 (50.94%, #55))
Rhys Griffin (#101 FRH, 86.32 (#78), 188-243 (43.62%, #90))
Solid year of progression for Josh. While he's maybe not at the level a lot of us thought he'd be at by now 24 months ago when the hype level was at its peak, it's not been a bad year and there has been some decent forward momentum generated. The big one was a first breakthrough at European Tour level, winning the title in the Netherlands with wins over van Duijvenbode, Menzies, Price, Schindler and Clayton, and he'd do a generally good job in that tour, not making too many errors and pushing through to four further final sessions outside of that win. At the lower level of the Pro Tour, Rock added a further four finals, turning two of them into wins, and with two of those finals coming in the last three events, it's a pointer that he's rounding into form at the right time nicely. I suppose the big disappointment has been the lack of progression on the TV stage - he did get an expected UK Open win against Patrick Geeraets but would lose to Rob Cross in the fifth round, but everything else has been a case of first round exits - Ross Smith at the Matchplay isn't unwinnable, Ryan Joyce at the Grand Prix is certainly winnable, Mike de Decker at the Euros isn't an absurd ask, in fairness his Grand Slam group draw was very tough so we can forgive that one, and while he got through a round of the Players Championship Finals as expected against Ricky Evans, he'd not win a leg against Jermaine Wattimena in the next round. He's seeded 18 here, he's a bit better than that in terms of levels, but it's going to be hard to push the rankings up further without a decent TV run somewhere.
Karel looks like he may have just done enough to retain his tour card after a mediocre 2023 season where he didn't make the worlds last year, but this year has been a fair bit better with steady floor play which is reflected in a decent scoring rate, and the occasional good result. On the floor, Sedlacek did enough to make it here as well as make the Players Championship Finals - a top 40 average is not bad at all, and he had a couple of decent runs, with a quarter final early in the season (albeit not facing the toughest opponents) and then a best run of a semi final in August, but again not facing anyone really tricky until the last sixteen, where Joyce then Clemens is not trivial but certainly not the hardest combination to get through. It was mainly steady accumulation that got him to Minehead, with more first round wins than losses and getting to the board final or better on ten occasions. At Minehead he'd run into Ryan Joyce who'd win 6-4, and earlier in the season at the same venue Sedlacek would lose his first game to Robert Owen at the UK Open. The only other TV was the World Cup, where with Adam Gawlas, Czechia would finally make some inroads, coming through an interesting group of Iceland and Bahrain, only to narrowly lose to Sweden in the last sixteen. The European Tour added the odd bit of extra cash, but it was just the three appearances, with one first round and two second round losses. Still, it's a better year, and assuming he does hold his card then there's plenty to build on in 2025.
Rhys Griffin will make a debut here after winning his tour card as one of the last points qualifiers at Q-School. To say it's been a tough debut season would not be unfair - Rhys was well out of the top 100 averages at Pro Tour level, and would suffer more than 20 first round defeats on the floor. He did win his board once in July, and has got the odd notable win, including a couple over Dirk van Duijvenbode, but it was nowhere near the production needed to get anywhere near Minehead. At the UK Open he would squeeze past a Riley's qualifier in the first round, but then lose out to Leonard Gates in round two. The European Tour was a total loss, with him not qualifying for a single event, but seemingly out of nowhere he did get through the tour card holder qualifier for the World Series finals to gain some stage experience, although it was only brief, losing out 6-4 to Jeff Smith in the opening round. He's still relatively young, having played Development Tour this decade, but it looks like at least for now the Pro Tour level is a bit above him unfortunately.
Hard to look past Sedlacek in round one. He's got the advantage in pretty much every metric you could care to mention, and I can't see how Griffin has much more than a one in four chance over a match length he's probably never played before. In round two, it should be Rock's game to lose, having about a two in three chance, maybe a bit more (assuming Karel wins), but with the TV results maybe at the back of his mind, maybe Sedlacek can show up as we know he can and ask some serious questions of Rocky.
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