Martin Lukeman (#36 FRH, 90.93 (#33), 496-458 (51.99%, #49))
Nitin Kumar (#165 FRH, 82.00 (#93), 35-42 (45.45%, #86))
It's possible this may be the last time we see Andrew as one of the seeded players here, with his UK Open win due to fall off the rankings in just a few months time, but the results he's been able to get suggest he's still around that level of maybe inside, but at worst just outside, the top 32. This year, TV's been alright - he didn't make the Grand Prix so may need to do more on the floor going forward if we are to see him as frequently as we did, and he didn't get through the Grand Slam qualifier, but everything else has been pretty much fine. His UK Open title defence would end at the second hurdle, he got past Josh Payne fine, but then ran into Peter Wright having one of his better games of the season. Then Andrew would have a best ever run at the Matchplay to the quarter final stages, avenging that loss to Wright and eliminating Krzysztof Ratajski, before van Gerwen pulled away from him in the second half of the match, Gilding having led 8-7 at the third break but only getting two legs after that. The last sixteen would be where he'd get to in the other events, the European Championship being very weird where he beat Luke Littler but then lost to Ricardo Pietreczko, while in the return to Minehead he'd knock out Kevin Doets and Dave Chisnall before being a distant second best to Ross Smith. Gilding's been in most of the Euro Tour events, but missed the last one so probably won't be a guaranteed player going forward, and only got through the first round just over half the time, with just the two runs into the last sixteen, while on the floor, a late semi final certainly helps things (without it, he'd not be in the 2025 Matchplay as he is provisionally right now), but a return of a couple of quarter finals and one other board win is not ideal for someone wanting to stick in the top 32, although he was picking up money consistently with very few first round defeats. There's still a good game in there, but I don't think his very best game is there any more, and how long he can hold on for is a difficult question to answer.
Martin Lukeman returns for a third straight year, and will be looking to get past the second round where he lost in the previous two years to Damon Heta and Martin Schindler. There were some questions as to whether Martin might drop down the rankings, his European Tour final would not stick around on his record for long in 2024, but any remote fears of losing his card were answered in some style by reaching the final of the Grand Slam. There, having come through the wild card qualifier, Martin topped a group headlined by Rob Cross, would then beat Ross Smith to reach the quarters, deny Cross again in the quarter final stages, and come through a big pressure semi final with Mickey Mansell to book his spot there for 2025. Of course, he got obliterated by Littler in the final, but I don't think Lukeman will particularly care about that. Elsewhere, there's also been promising signs - he got a very good run going at the UK Open, beating Jermaine Wattimena in a high quality contest, Leonard Gates, Danny Noppert in another decider and Gary Anderson to reach the quarter finals, where he'd lose out to Dimitri van den Bergh. His only other TV appearance was a quick exit in the PC Finals to Connor Scutt, but on the floor, Martin's probably had his best season to date, with a very early semi final run, two further quarter finals, and a very good record of not making mistakes in the first round. He's not quite doing enough to get on the Euro Tour automatically, but is within striking distance if he can have a good start to 2025, but did play just shy of half the events, albeit with limited success, just getting two wins over Brendan Dolan and Callan Rydz. It's been a great 2024, and the draw is such that he can very easily get a best run here to give good momentum going into 2025.
Nitin will make his fourth appearance here, and is back after a three year absence, and is still looking for not only a first win, but also a first set, having previously been whitewashed by Jeffrey de Zwaan, Brendan Dolan and Ricky Evans. Kumar won the Indian qualifier - how exactly that worked, I'm not sure, there looked to be three events looking on Dart Connect so I assume there was some sort of points system, but Kumar winning all the events, including with a 90 average in two of the finals, makes the actual ins and outs of it academic. Those sorts of averages show that he is capable of putting together the sort of play that can win sets, so he'll just need to bring his best game. Outside of that qualifier, Nitin was in the Asian Championship, where he came through his group fairly comfortably only to lose to fellow international qualifier Lee Lok Yin 5-4 in the last sixteen, while on the Asian Tour as a whole, he averaged just over 80, but did have a few good runs, peaking with a final in Dubai where he lost to Paolo Nebrida, and he would make a couple of semi finals and three quarter finals outside of that, enough to finish a respectable twelfth on the Asian Tour order of merit. He also played in a couple of WDF events in Mongolia, winning one of them, but it's kind of hard to tell the standard that he would have faced in those tournaments.
Nitin has never been outright bad, in the previous worlds he's been at he's steadily got better, but this is kind of an awkward draw against one of the better Pro Tour players who's probably playing as well as he's ever done at this moment, so I'm thinking that Lukeman should be more or less a lock to advance, Nitin has the game to nick a set for sure, but it's a question of if he turns up or not. Gilding against Lukeman has the potential to be one of the closer games in round two - I've got Martin as a tiny favourite looking at year long stats, but maybe with his recent TV breakthrough and the confidence that will give him, it could be a little bit more of an edge for Smash. Certainly a match which should give the viewers value for money.
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