1701 - And what price would we have got on a Barney/Wright double?
1626 - That's the standard stupid decider. Start six without a meaningful treble, then a 180, make pig's ear of the set up shot, miss bull for 129, Barry hits last dart. Great. Result is we're down a bit more than 5% on where we started, as opposed to up nearer to 10%. Just the three stragglers in the 3-8 room to clear as well as the last one on each stage board. Then draw and re-evaluate.
1620 - Of course he then gets broken, Barry holds, then starts six without a treble. I do have an image of Huybrechts captioned "local man ruins everything" somewhere.
1614 - Well, both those punts that I didn't like are in, and Kim's 4-2 up with the darts so ought to be OK?
1607 - Also, that's one way to make sportradar seem even more useless than normal - list what looks like every single game from boards 3-8, but just results only. Why bother?
1605 - And of course Barney ruined everything by coming from 5-2 down to beat Sedlacek when I had nothing on it. Marvellous.
1548 - Tricole got home, so that's something I guess.
1538 - I'll probably just do a scattergraph after the event. But three people winning with 70-something in the SECOND round? No, I'm not going to give my Leon Weber money back, although Lukasiak going 77 and the guy I bet on only winning two legs is a head scratcher. It's not like any leg went beyond seven visits!
1533 - Just as an aside, does it feel like we've had a lot more bad games this year? Yeah there'll be the odd thing like that awful bounce out van Schie had on Bissell (that board appears awful) but how many people have won with an average under, say, 85?
1528 - As I've just checked and seen that Rupprecht (who I have insufficent data for in any sample) beat Crabtree, that's all the projections done, so I can at least close a couple of tabs. Williams might be falling away after a good start but still just a break down.
1526 - Somewhat a relief that Doets ran five straight from 4-1 down. A little bit of a recovery at least.
1520 - Ran some of the few remaining projections and have added a couple more bets. Tricole and Scutt. Not liking the first one but it feels like his sort of match, not liking the second one as Sparidaans has looked decent enough in the first couple of games. DC has just caught up on the stage games so may jam one or two more in shortly.
1511 - Not a good few minutes. Hood passed up a real good chance to win that match, Warner got blown away, and Doets is down quite a bit early to Pietreczko. As long as Huybrechts gets the job done I think we should still be fine but it was looking a lot better half an hour ago.
1447 - Looks like Hood just missed a nine, damn. Still, at least he got the break.
1440 - Urgh, Wright game opened at more or less where I thought it was. That's a shame. Also missed out on an alright Pratnemer price by seconds and the value's all gone. Difference in timings on all the boards is really throwing me off.
1427 - Good lord. Jim Long averages 79. Still doesn't drop a leg. EU Q-School ladies and gents. Still waiting for them to put up a Wright/Labanauskas market, they need to hurry up a tad. Meikle playing well but Willie not really giving him much shot at a break.
1411 - Added moderate bets on Warner and Patrik Williams, and a pretty big one on Hood. That last one doesn't seem close, especially form wise.
1357 - Few projections run. Wright comes in at just over 40/60 against Darius, but he doesn't have the legs for short data to be reliable. If it was, it would likely be a lot worse for him. Clemens/Bialecki I think Gabriel has about a 55/45 edge, Lipscombe about the same over Kenny, Lovely/Lukeman showing as a flip but same with the Wright game, switch in Lukeman there. Williams/de Graaf both showing about 55/45, but mostly just long data there, Pratnemer/Williams appears flippy. This Rosney/Burton game is getting too close for comfort, the former seems to have remembered how to play in the last hour.
1349 - OK, a bit of a lull in proceedings so time to blast out a few more round three thoughts.
1345 - Oh you are taking the piss, right? Kist was 5-1 down and pulled it back to 5-5, only to lose the decider? Sure, he'd have needed to catch the big fish to win it as played, but still, I assumed that one was long dead.
1342 - And Bates over Plaisier is the biggest pick up of the day. Or, as Homer would say, the biggest pick up so far.
1334 - On the main stages, nice little pick up with Lovely, most of which is going back thanks to Bialecki. Have added plays for round 3 (some of these may be late round 2 additions) - Meikle looks slightly undervalued against O'Connor, Weber I think is worth a small stab, same with Dolan, as mentioned Doets is solid even at what looks like a short price already, but the big one is on Huybrechts over Barry. These project nowhere near a 1.9 price. Although he cost me a bet, will give props to Leek, that was a great performance.
1317 - Oh that was a very nice couple of minutes, what with Patrik Williams making the comeback, Sietse Lap looking really good, then Adam Warner (although not bet on) nicks the game against Meulenkamp. Probably should start looking at round three punting very shortly.
1300 - And what on earth is going on with Bradley Brooks. Currently averaging under 80 at 3-3 against a qualifier. Maybe they had one leg where they both missed a load of doubles but this isn't an isolated incident.
1259 - Think I'm finally caught up. Could do with DC doing the same on boards one and two really.
1241 - Right, gone through them all. Added a bit on Bates, Griffin and Burton. Smaller fliers on Williams (whenever you can lay Dekker it is usually right to do so!) and a tiny play on Henderyck. Some of the first three could have been bigger, but I'm just getting vibes and a tad flustered.
1231 - This is looking pretty disappointing from Tweddell so far. Also shame Rusty couldn't pull that off, 6-5 loss is unlucky. Not seen stats yet though. Going to do round two bets now.
1217 - Done the same with Kist over Bialecki just to be safe and not miss the off on the stage boards. Another one that I think is about 60/40 (in favour of Kist obv), market has it closer, so will go. Also van den Herik gets it done easily. How the hell was he nearly a 2-1 dog?
1212 - Took a little bit on Lovely to beat McGuirk in my first round two bet. 3 on the exchange is worth a small punt when I'm seeing it as basically 60/40.
1205 - Looks like the round two schedule is falling relatively nicely where I don't need to rush to bet that much and can concentrate on data. Which is nice.
1201 - Langford/Rosney. Oh my god what an absolute shitshow. Or, to use the correct 21st century terminology, proper darts.
1152 - Few games just completed. Lost a minbet on Potter, but he didn't play well, Landman just showed up and can't complain about that one.
1145 - That 6-1 win for Rupprecht now that the score is through on DC is certainly up there for the most unconvincing 6-1's I've ever seen. Thought Walker would do a lot better there. Burton also nicely through to keep that board moving.
1141 - Didn't notice Ehlers withdrew, not that I think it matters much, hope he's back playing soon.
1130 - Yikes, Merk gets home, but I did NOT realise that they were just breaking each other for fun, and I thought he had the darts in the decider. As such, when I did flip the match on in the last leg I was a tad concerned, but no major dramas...
1123 - Jesus christ that is one hell of a performance by Whittaker. All legs won under 15, two under 12. Yikes.
1115 - We're under way. Bates looks to have the best start (don't have boards 1-2 running, just using DC), Griffin looked like he was understandably flying against Bereza but Filip's clawed it back a tad.
1043 - Just tidying it up so the newest update is on the top. Some people might hate that, and I can't recall what I did previous, but I think it makes more sense doing it this way.
1042 - Round three done. I hate that Barney does not have enough data in December onwards to count into my projection as there is no way that should be returning 50/50 - it'd only bump it to 57/43 or so which I still don't think is Sedlacek favoured enough. I guess I have to go with a minbet and pray? Doets I thought wouldn't be as short in the market as he is, but if anything he should be shorter. Huybrechts, Dolan and Meikle might be a bit undervalued, but not going to say how much until I put things into the betsizing tool. Now, we wait.
1035 - Just done with round two. A couple of projections partially surprised me - first quite how close van Schie and Bissell were, and second quite how much better Gawlas was than Dudeney. The market however appears to have noticed as well, I'm not going to put on round 2/3 bets until I know a bit better how the round one shots have gone (particularly the Merk one, but that goes early) for bankroll management reasons, but I don't think I'm missing any obscene value if the market picks up on these points.
1027 - Just got through with round one projections. An awful lot of players where I have no data to work with, and quite a few more where I have limited data, but I've put a few punts on, albeit wildly cut the bet size. One I've gone heaviest on is Merk - I've got full data on both him and Beeton, he's 1.8, and projecting well into the 70% range, nearer eighty than seventy. I hope he's not got a bit of an undisclosed injury or cold or whatever. Also taken van den Herik, Tweddell and Sharp for moderate sizings then very small on Rusty (hate this one as I can only use full year data but it projects as a coinflip, reduced to absolute minimum as it doesn't feel right), Potter, Lap and Sparidaans. Onto what I can pull from rounds 2-3 now.
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