Friday, 6 March 2026

UK Open round 4 projections

Same methodology as always, going to be a handful where we can only use the long and/or medium samples, but those will be noted. These are ordered in descending order of interestingness, and I have bolded the stage games. Those where I say there's no short data, you should probably bump the guy I don't mention, as those who don't have short data haven't won games of late. And they likely haven't done so for a reason. Except Campbell, that one can probably be reversed given Chizzy, but he's not the same given he's not a card holder so didn't get as many chances to get the legs in the bank.

Joyce 49-51 Manby
Gotthardt 52-48 Sykes
van Gerwen 52-48 Aspinall
Cullen 53-47 Schindler
Coates 42-58 Barry
Veenstra 59-41 Clemens
Suljovic 39-61 Wattimena
Scutt 62-38 Pilgrim
de Decker 63-37 Lipscombe
R Smith 65-35 Gilding
van Duijvenbode 35-65 Anderson
Ratajski 66-34 Evans
Doets 67-33 de Graaf
Dobey 68-32 Wade
Long 31-69 Razma
Lukeman 30-70 Edhouse (no short data on Lukeman)
Culleton 29-71 Gruellich
van den Bergh 29-71 Noppert (no short data on van den Bergh)
Gurney 25-75 Zonneveld
Rock 76-24 O'Connor
van Barneveld 19-81 Nijman (no short data on van Barneveld)
Menzies 81-19 Wright
Chisnall 81-19 Campbell (no short/medium data on Campbell)
M Smith 82-18 Weber
Woodhouse 17-83 Humphries
Cross 17-83 van Veen
Lukasiak 13-87 Pratnemer
Bunting 87-13 Tricole
Littler 87-13 Heta
Clayton 88-12 Merkx
Boulton 8-92 Searle
Ritchie 4-96 Price

I mean they're never putting Gotthardt/Sykes on anything but 3-8, I know, but hitting 3/8 of the most boring games is not the greatest of looks. Still, at least a couple should be good? Probably still just watching on DC though.

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