Another weekend, another European Tour event. With the severely depleted field (no MvG, Anderson, Taylor or van Barneveld we knew about, Lewis dropped out yesterday) it's open season for this title. Obviously Wright is a big favourite, but he's in the same half as both Chisnall and Wade (although neither is in Wright's quarter), so there's great opportunities in the other half - Suljovic and Klaasen being the only players in the adjusted top 10 to be in that side of the draw (although numbers 11 through 14 are as well). Come to think of it, why the hell is it being held in Gibraltar? Surely Spain would be a much better bet when it comes to both growing the game and in terms of quality of player making it through - Reyes is seeded here but Alcinas and Rodriguez have both shown they can compete at a much higher level than any Gibraltan has ever done, Barbero's no mug either, giving them a shot would surely be better. Of course, the PDC is sponsored entirely by bookmakers, most of which fled to the Rock once the internet became a thing, so it's probably just an excuse for the PDC to nice them up or something.
Saw no bets I liked this morning. Keep an eye out tomorrow morning or later today for round 2.
So, a 121 out. Should we go treble first or bull first? Let's assign similar probabilities as we did when analysing the 135 - no bounceouts, no missed big numbers, hit trebles 1 out of 3, doubles 2 out of 5, and when shooting at bull we hit 1 in 5 and also miss completely 1 in 5.
Warning - lots of maths follows
Going treble first - a third of the time we leave 61 by hitting treble 20. Here, if we hit treble 11, we are either out or leave a shot at double. If we hit single eleven, we are out if we hit bull, or leave single for double most of the time, either by hitting 25, or hitting any other single number that isn't a large enough even number to get below 40. This gives:
Out: 2/45 (T20/T11/D14) plus 2/45 (T20/11/bull) = 4/45
On a double: 3/45 (T20/T11/miss) plus 1/75 (T20/11/even miss 10 or over) = 2/25
On single for double: 37/225 (T20/11/anything that isn't bull, 10, 12 etc)
The other two thirds of the time we leave 101, and go treble 17. Here, we either hit and have the same bull scenarios listed above, or miss and then go back upstairs and leave either a double or something in the 61-80 range (can go 16's to try to leave 36 if blocked, it doesn't change the equation). This gives:
Out: 2/45 (20/T17/bull)
On a double: 1/75 (20/T17/large even number) plus 4/27 (20, 17, T20) = 109/675
On single for double: 37/225 (20/T17/anything that isn't bull, 10, 12 etc)
On 61-80: 8/27 (20/17/20)
So in total, going treble first:
Out: 13.33%
On a double: 24.15%
On single for double: 32.89%
On 61-80: 29.63%
Now let's go bull first. If we hit the bull, we are either:
Out: 2/75 (bull/T13/D16)
On a double: 13/75 (bull/any other two dart combo)
If we hit 25, we are either:
Out: 2/25 (25/T20/D18)
On a double: 3/25 (25/T20/miss) plus 2/15 (25/20/T20) = 19/75
On single for double: 4/15 (25/20/20)
If we miss completely, it gets quite sketchy as there become lots of permutations, so let's be careful. Four misses don't actually kill us as they leave 101, 104, 107 or 110 so if we hit one of those we have:
Out: 1/375 (20, 17 etc/Tsomething/bull)
On a double: 1/1250 (20, 17 etc/Tsomething/big even number) plus 2/225 (20, 17 etc/miss treble/hit treble) = 109/11250
On single for double: 37/3750 (20, 17 etc/Tsomething/anything that isn't bull, 10, 12 etc)
On 61-80: 4/225 (20, 17 etc/miss treble/miss treble)
If we hit 2 to leave 119, this is the only shot which doesn't leave a fat number to leave a double if we hit a treble, assuming we go 19 first, so this leaves:
On a double: 1/900 (2/T19/T10) plus 2/900 (2/19/T20) = 1/300
On single for double: 2/900 (2/T19/10)
On 61-80: 4/900 (2/19/20)
The rest of the permutations don't give us a shot, but all give us a dart at a double with exactly one treble. Thus we have:
61-80: 1/15 (random big number/miss treble/miss treble)
On a double: 1/12 (random big number/hit one treble in two darts)
Sum all that wall of figured together, and we get:
Out: 10.93%
On a double: 52.30%
On single for double: 27.88%
On 61-80: 8.89%
Cliffs: going bull first goes out 2.4% less often, or 1 in 40 legs, but leaves us on a double more than twice as often if we don't, giving us an extra dart next visit much, much more frequently.
Friday, 12 May 2017
Monday, 8 May 2017
Euro Tour 4 aftermath
Congrats to Peter Wright on yet another win this year, and in amazing style with the whitewash over Michael van Gerwen. But what awards will we give?
Best player performance: I'm going to give this to Dave Chisnall. Four twelve darters in his opening game, another two in round three over Adrian Lewis, another over Cross and another against van Gerwen, who he only just lost 6-5 to, with MvG averaging over 110 in the legs Chisnall won, so great pressuring there. Pity he couldn't finish the second leg in the eighteen darts van Gerwen let him have, or hold the decider in fifteen, as I think he'd have given Wright a great game.
Best single match performance: Going to be hard to beat Wright in the final. Dekker against Wilson played some good stuff with two twelves, all but one leg in under fifteen and over 100 average when losing legs, van Gerwen in the semi final was also excellent as mentioned above. Don't want to give two things to Chisnall, his opening game would probably have taken it if he hadn't got quite so far in the tournament in such a consistent manner.
Worst player performance: I'll go for Reyes here. Ceder isn't a complete bunny, but to only win three legs (only one being in fifteen or less) and average 82 in the ones you lose? That's not good for a seed. When, on throw, your opponent starts with a 3 and you still lose the leg... Wade is close, he really should finish Webster off from the position he had, given Mark was really sluggish in the opening round.
Worst single match performance: There's only the one 6-0 all tournament, but van Gerwen didn't exactly play badly. Beaton against Ceder probably, Clemens was statistically worse but probably would expect to lose.
Looking to the majors, Dekker's done himself no harm but probably needs one more big run to be in real Matchplay contention, Ratajski's also looking solid for the European Championship with another grand in the bag. The current lineup for the latter has a great range of players in terms of countries represented, but there's an awful lot of time for that to change.
New adjusted rankings, and a big change:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright (UP 1)
3 Gary Anderson (DOWN 1)
4 Dave Chisnall
5 James Wade
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Phil Taylor
11 Benito van de Pas (UP 1)
12 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 1)
13 Simon Whitlock
14 Ian White
15 Gerwyn Price
16 Alan Norris
17 Daryl Gurney
18 Michael Smith
19 Robert Thornton
20 Joe Cullen
For reference, Rob Cross is within four grand of the top 50.
Best player performance: I'm going to give this to Dave Chisnall. Four twelve darters in his opening game, another two in round three over Adrian Lewis, another over Cross and another against van Gerwen, who he only just lost 6-5 to, with MvG averaging over 110 in the legs Chisnall won, so great pressuring there. Pity he couldn't finish the second leg in the eighteen darts van Gerwen let him have, or hold the decider in fifteen, as I think he'd have given Wright a great game.
Best single match performance: Going to be hard to beat Wright in the final. Dekker against Wilson played some good stuff with two twelves, all but one leg in under fifteen and over 100 average when losing legs, van Gerwen in the semi final was also excellent as mentioned above. Don't want to give two things to Chisnall, his opening game would probably have taken it if he hadn't got quite so far in the tournament in such a consistent manner.
Worst player performance: I'll go for Reyes here. Ceder isn't a complete bunny, but to only win three legs (only one being in fifteen or less) and average 82 in the ones you lose? That's not good for a seed. When, on throw, your opponent starts with a 3 and you still lose the leg... Wade is close, he really should finish Webster off from the position he had, given Mark was really sluggish in the opening round.
Worst single match performance: There's only the one 6-0 all tournament, but van Gerwen didn't exactly play badly. Beaton against Ceder probably, Clemens was statistically worse but probably would expect to lose.
Looking to the majors, Dekker's done himself no harm but probably needs one more big run to be in real Matchplay contention, Ratajski's also looking solid for the European Championship with another grand in the bag. The current lineup for the latter has a great range of players in terms of countries represented, but there's an awful lot of time for that to change.
New adjusted rankings, and a big change:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright (UP 1)
3 Gary Anderson (DOWN 1)
4 Dave Chisnall
5 James Wade
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Phil Taylor
11 Benito van de Pas (UP 1)
12 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 1)
13 Simon Whitlock
14 Ian White
15 Gerwyn Price
16 Alan Norris
17 Daryl Gurney
18 Michael Smith
19 Robert Thornton
20 Joe Cullen
For reference, Rob Cross is within four grand of the top 50.
Sunday, 7 May 2017
Things can only get Dekker
Well that was embarrassing, after Dekker got us off to a great start, Benito nearly cocked it up then both Wade and Smith got the breaks they needed and threw them away, each losing 6-5 in a decider. van den Bergh and van Duijvenbode couldn't really get close but that's well within the range of expected results, Ratajski was able to keep it on throw up to 4-3 so I'm fine with that. End result is that all the gains from round 1 have been given back already, sigh. Today:
Suljovic is a 60/40 favourite over Cullen, who looked very good against Clayton. Suljovic did what he needed to, he's the better player and while I wouldn't be surprised with him getting turned over, I think that it doesn't quite happen often enough to bet.
Klaasen-Webster is around the same line, Webster really wasn't firing that great yesterday, it's more that Wade was worse and missed his shots. Klaasen faced a sub-75 average van Duijvenbode, and won 6-2 while only winning one leg in under 15 darts, so wasn't exactly on top form either. Leaving it alone.
Huybrechts-Dekker sees Kim around a 70% favourite, Dekker didn't need to throw too many good legs to overcome Norris, while Huybrechts was clicking late. Think this may be a game too far for Jan.
Wright is 75/25 against Gurney, Gurney had some good legs against Henderson but I don't think he produces enough of them that it's worth a bet either way - Wright should win but it's a bit short against a competent opponent.
Cross is a small favourite over West, this seems fine, could see this going either way.
Chisnall is similar against Lewis - Chizzy was lights out yesterday with four (!) twelve darters, while Lewis got through in a close one against White, dropping an 11 darter to break at 4-4 and following it up with solid play. Think that Chizzy wins a close one, as the market has it close I'll leave it alone.
Benito is only a small favourite against Price, and wasn't too convincing against Murnan, surviving a match dart and not throwing well at all for the first half of the game. Price was a mix of fifteens and over fifteens, just getting the one break in six visits which was enough. Can't see overwhelming value.
van Gerwen ends Ceder's run, end of.
Bets before the final session seem unlikely with me prioritising United/Arsenal, so that's it for the weekend, but I should be back later with a roundup.
Suljovic is a 60/40 favourite over Cullen, who looked very good against Clayton. Suljovic did what he needed to, he's the better player and while I wouldn't be surprised with him getting turned over, I think that it doesn't quite happen often enough to bet.
Klaasen-Webster is around the same line, Webster really wasn't firing that great yesterday, it's more that Wade was worse and missed his shots. Klaasen faced a sub-75 average van Duijvenbode, and won 6-2 while only winning one leg in under 15 darts, so wasn't exactly on top form either. Leaving it alone.
Huybrechts-Dekker sees Kim around a 70% favourite, Dekker didn't need to throw too many good legs to overcome Norris, while Huybrechts was clicking late. Think this may be a game too far for Jan.
Wright is 75/25 against Gurney, Gurney had some good legs against Henderson but I don't think he produces enough of them that it's worth a bet either way - Wright should win but it's a bit short against a competent opponent.
Cross is a small favourite over West, this seems fine, could see this going either way.
Chisnall is similar against Lewis - Chizzy was lights out yesterday with four (!) twelve darters, while Lewis got through in a close one against White, dropping an 11 darter to break at 4-4 and following it up with solid play. Think that Chizzy wins a close one, as the market has it close I'll leave it alone.
Benito is only a small favourite against Price, and wasn't too convincing against Murnan, surviving a match dart and not throwing well at all for the first half of the game. Price was a mix of fifteens and over fifteens, just getting the one break in six visits which was enough. Can't see overwhelming value.
van Gerwen ends Ceder's run, end of.
Bets before the final session seem unlikely with me prioritising United/Arsenal, so that's it for the weekend, but I should be back later with a roundup.
Saturday, 6 May 2017
Euro Tour 4 round 2
Ahhhhh, that's much better. Doesn't always work out as well as that, as we've seen previously, but it is very nice when it happens. Round 2 starting within the hour so let's get going:
Norris/Dekker - Norris hasn't really done a huge deal since the UK Open, but he's still installed as around a 65/35 favourite. There might be small Dekker value here, he was really on point yesterday, I'll punt it - 0.25u Dekker 15/8
Reyes/Ceder - Ulf pulled out a huge shock and is much shorter odds today against a better player, although that may be lack of information - Ceder won most of his legs in fifteen darts, which is a solid showing. There's enough here to think Reyes isn't an auto win, so no bet.
Klaasen/van Duijvenbode - Dirk's looked alright this year, and we're getting very good odds. More importantly, he seems to have solidified mentally, previously if he had blown a 4-0 lead like yesterday he would lose the match, but he got over the line. Small value here - 0.25u van Duijvenbode 27/10
Whitlock/Cross - Cross looked solid yesterday, and Whitlock had a bad weekend last time out. Can't blame any Cross bettors at 6/4, but I'll look at form over more than one weekend and leave it alone.
Chisnall/Clark - Chizzy way too short and I don't see Clark doing enough to bet at 7/1.
Cullen/Clayton - I know Cullen's been a bit hit and miss recently, but Clayton wouldn't be 6/4 if it wasn't for recent form. If Cullen had been a touch more solid over the past few weeks I'd fire on him, but he hasn't, so I can't really bet.
van de Pas/Murnan - Murnan opened up with a couple of fifteen darters then dragged himself over the line averaging only 85, that's not great form and Benito is off the back of one of the tournaments of his life. I like his chances even given the big odds on here - 1u van de Pas 3/8
Huybrechts/Hopp - Max was very hit and miss yesterday, finishing off with two four visit legs to seal the game, but missing clumps of doubles. Kim should punish that but is too short and Hopp may well throw enough good legs to creep home.
Wade/Webster - Webster didn't look good yesterday, uncharacteristic bad finishing, scoring not really there to compensate. Wade is a good price here - 1u Wade 2/5
Price/van den Bergh - Dimitri had a good comeback win and seems to be playing well, Price isn't that much of a step up from King, not enough for me to think that Dimitri can't grab this one time in three - 0.25u van den Bergh 2/1
Smith/West - West wasn't missing a thing on doubles but still only averaged 90, he's too short here against a Smith who made a tour semi just last weekend. Smith, even if he misses some doubles, should get enough of them to get home anyway - 1u Smith 4/6
Gurney/Henderson - Hendo started OK but then let Meulenkamp get into the match way too easily, a fifteen darter (on double 1 lol) on throw in the decider was good, but I think Gurney will be clinical enough. Not so much to bet at 2/5 though.
Suljovic/Ratajski - Is this really an 80/20 game? Ratajski really put the afterburners on after a sluggish opening and ended with an average just shy of the ton, seems much closer than the odds suggest - 0.25u Ratajski 39/10
Wright/Richardson - James doesn't have enough to win but Wright is too short to really consider betting.
van Gerwen/Brown - MvG is 1/20 and Brown averaged 86, no prizes for guessing what happens here.
White/Lewis - probably the most intriguing game of the night, Lewis rolled Bunting easily and should be better today, White won't be without chances but I'm not sure if 2/1 is enough to punt.
Norris/Dekker - Norris hasn't really done a huge deal since the UK Open, but he's still installed as around a 65/35 favourite. There might be small Dekker value here, he was really on point yesterday, I'll punt it - 0.25u Dekker 15/8
Reyes/Ceder - Ulf pulled out a huge shock and is much shorter odds today against a better player, although that may be lack of information - Ceder won most of his legs in fifteen darts, which is a solid showing. There's enough here to think Reyes isn't an auto win, so no bet.
Klaasen/van Duijvenbode - Dirk's looked alright this year, and we're getting very good odds. More importantly, he seems to have solidified mentally, previously if he had blown a 4-0 lead like yesterday he would lose the match, but he got over the line. Small value here - 0.25u van Duijvenbode 27/10
Whitlock/Cross - Cross looked solid yesterday, and Whitlock had a bad weekend last time out. Can't blame any Cross bettors at 6/4, but I'll look at form over more than one weekend and leave it alone.
Chisnall/Clark - Chizzy way too short and I don't see Clark doing enough to bet at 7/1.
Cullen/Clayton - I know Cullen's been a bit hit and miss recently, but Clayton wouldn't be 6/4 if it wasn't for recent form. If Cullen had been a touch more solid over the past few weeks I'd fire on him, but he hasn't, so I can't really bet.
van de Pas/Murnan - Murnan opened up with a couple of fifteen darters then dragged himself over the line averaging only 85, that's not great form and Benito is off the back of one of the tournaments of his life. I like his chances even given the big odds on here - 1u van de Pas 3/8
Huybrechts/Hopp - Max was very hit and miss yesterday, finishing off with two four visit legs to seal the game, but missing clumps of doubles. Kim should punish that but is too short and Hopp may well throw enough good legs to creep home.
Wade/Webster - Webster didn't look good yesterday, uncharacteristic bad finishing, scoring not really there to compensate. Wade is a good price here - 1u Wade 2/5
Price/van den Bergh - Dimitri had a good comeback win and seems to be playing well, Price isn't that much of a step up from King, not enough for me to think that Dimitri can't grab this one time in three - 0.25u van den Bergh 2/1
Smith/West - West wasn't missing a thing on doubles but still only averaged 90, he's too short here against a Smith who made a tour semi just last weekend. Smith, even if he misses some doubles, should get enough of them to get home anyway - 1u Smith 4/6
Gurney/Henderson - Hendo started OK but then let Meulenkamp get into the match way too easily, a fifteen darter (on double 1 lol) on throw in the decider was good, but I think Gurney will be clinical enough. Not so much to bet at 2/5 though.
Suljovic/Ratajski - Is this really an 80/20 game? Ratajski really put the afterburners on after a sluggish opening and ended with an average just shy of the ton, seems much closer than the odds suggest - 0.25u Ratajski 39/10
Wright/Richardson - James doesn't have enough to win but Wright is too short to really consider betting.
van Gerwen/Brown - MvG is 1/20 and Brown averaged 86, no prizes for guessing what happens here.
White/Lewis - probably the most intriguing game of the night, Lewis rolled Bunting easily and should be better today, White won't be without chances but I'm not sure if 2/1 is enough to punt.
Friday, 5 May 2017
Euro Tour 4 round 1
Have a few minutes before work to look at the odds. Max Hopp qualified, wow
0.25u Ratajski 10/11 vs Lennon, I'm not all that convinced about Lennon at this stage, Ratajski was playing well enough to do the triple qualification from Eastern Europe last weekend and we have enough on the Pole at this stage to know he's competent.
0.5u Richardson 8/15 vs Rowley, I was bigging Rowley up a couple of posts ago for having a good weekend, but Richardson should be too good here enough of the time if he has the slightest bit of consistency.
0.5u Clark 8/11 vs Berndt, Clark's hanging around in my live top 90 and has plenty of experience and this seems too long against a domestic qualifier.
0.25u Clayton 10/11 vs Kist, Clayton was white hot last weekend, while I think this is close normally I'm thinking the form differential is enough that the Welshman gets home enough to make it a bet.
0.25u Dekker 11/10 vs Wilson, Dekker reached a Pro Tour semi final last weekend, while Wilson has had quite the poor start to the year. Dekker should win this one at least half the time.
Considering Lerchbacher and Lewis, if it weren't for Lewis travelling having played last night I'd probably fire on him for sure.
0.25u Ratajski 10/11 vs Lennon, I'm not all that convinced about Lennon at this stage, Ratajski was playing well enough to do the triple qualification from Eastern Europe last weekend and we have enough on the Pole at this stage to know he's competent.
0.5u Richardson 8/15 vs Rowley, I was bigging Rowley up a couple of posts ago for having a good weekend, but Richardson should be too good here enough of the time if he has the slightest bit of consistency.
0.5u Clark 8/11 vs Berndt, Clark's hanging around in my live top 90 and has plenty of experience and this seems too long against a domestic qualifier.
0.25u Clayton 10/11 vs Kist, Clayton was white hot last weekend, while I think this is close normally I'm thinking the form differential is enough that the Welshman gets home enough to make it a bet.
0.25u Dekker 11/10 vs Wilson, Dekker reached a Pro Tour semi final last weekend, while Wilson has had quite the poor start to the year. Dekker should win this one at least half the time.
Considering Lerchbacher and Lewis, if it weren't for Lewis travelling having played last night I'd probably fire on him for sure.
Thursday, 4 May 2017
Matchplay Qualification Race
Going to try to project the qualifiers. Would say that all of the top 16 seeds as of right now (which is the 1-14 from the adjusted rankings in the previous post plus Smith and Thornton) are safe, either mathematically as a seed or because they easily have enough in the bank from the Pro Tour to qualify if they slip out of the top 16. Will also say that the top 8 on the Pro Tour right now (Norris, Price, Gurney, Cullen, King, Bunting, Reyes and West) are safe as well - there's over a seven grand drop from West to Wilson who's currently ninth, and West is nearly fifteen grand above the current cutoff value. Which leaves eight spots. I've considered everyone who is within 10k of the current cutoff point (excepting Terry Jenkins, as he's seemingly retired, anyone more than a whole Pro Tour win behind already isn't catching up barring miracles) and extrapolated what their winnings should be as follows:
- Taking their current data from Burton's standings (https://twitter.com/bsd987/status/858724094791081986), which include mincashes from the Euro Tour 4/5 if they've made it
- From the Pro Tour (six events remaining), I've taken their average winnings from the Pro Tour so far this year, and averaged it with the average winnings from the UK Open Qualifiers, assuming they paid out the same amounts, weighting it 2:1 in favour of the Pro Tour as it's more recent and a larger sample size.
- From the European Tour (five events remaining), I've looked at how many games on average a player wins once they get in from their last five events, then looked at how often they have qualified and used that as a marker. Work out how many they get in to on average going forwards, then multiply that by how much they win - so if they've won a total of three games in their last five appearances, I'd credit them with £1,600 for each time they make it. For the Euros, this extrapolates across the five remaining events as they haven't had any of the qualifiers for them yet (one is tonight), for the UK based players, I've scored for ET4/5 separately based on how often they win, but only if they've qualified for it, otherwise they obviously get zero, for ET6-8 I've projected the same as the European players.
Two quick notes - for Rob Cross, I've used an average of winning 1.5 games each time he makes a European Tour event - I'm not using a sample size of one event where he won three games, getting through the first round then beating a seed half the time seems like a reasonable adjustment. For Dimitri van den Bergh, as he missed one of the Euro qualifiers (not sure why as it was on the same night as another one he did play in - would guess the main event clashed with a Development Tour weekend or something), I've said that one he didn't take part in would be a loss, so he's qualified for 2/3. He might easily prioritise other events again and not take part in all of them, plus saying he'll definitely qualify for all five remaining events may skew the data.
So who are the last eight:
Rob Cross 46750
James Wilson 41083
Steve Beaton 38757
Kyle Anderson 36540
Christian Kist 35210
Ronny Huybrechts 35084
Darren Webster 32327
Chris Dobey 32220
----------------------
John Henderson 31623
Jonny Clayton 31193
Justin Pipe 30927
Robbie Green 30463
Jermaine Wattimena 28000
Mark Webster 27523
James Richardson 26393
Jan Dekker 25916
Dimitri van den Bergh 24334
Jeffrey de Graaf 23784
Vincent van der Voort 23700
Kevin Painter 21260
Rowby John Rodriguez 21262
So it is, er, the exact same eight making it that are listed in Burton's tweet that I link to above. What a pointless exercise. But it should give you an idea on form who's closing the gap on form better than others.
Getting bets up for round 1 of Sindelfingen seems unlikely. Round 2 seems more realistic, watch on Friday evening/Saturday morning for plays.
- Taking their current data from Burton's standings (https://twitter.com/bsd987/status/858724094791081986), which include mincashes from the Euro Tour 4/5 if they've made it
- From the Pro Tour (six events remaining), I've taken their average winnings from the Pro Tour so far this year, and averaged it with the average winnings from the UK Open Qualifiers, assuming they paid out the same amounts, weighting it 2:1 in favour of the Pro Tour as it's more recent and a larger sample size.
- From the European Tour (five events remaining), I've looked at how many games on average a player wins once they get in from their last five events, then looked at how often they have qualified and used that as a marker. Work out how many they get in to on average going forwards, then multiply that by how much they win - so if they've won a total of three games in their last five appearances, I'd credit them with £1,600 for each time they make it. For the Euros, this extrapolates across the five remaining events as they haven't had any of the qualifiers for them yet (one is tonight), for the UK based players, I've scored for ET4/5 separately based on how often they win, but only if they've qualified for it, otherwise they obviously get zero, for ET6-8 I've projected the same as the European players.
Two quick notes - for Rob Cross, I've used an average of winning 1.5 games each time he makes a European Tour event - I'm not using a sample size of one event where he won three games, getting through the first round then beating a seed half the time seems like a reasonable adjustment. For Dimitri van den Bergh, as he missed one of the Euro qualifiers (not sure why as it was on the same night as another one he did play in - would guess the main event clashed with a Development Tour weekend or something), I've said that one he didn't take part in would be a loss, so he's qualified for 2/3. He might easily prioritise other events again and not take part in all of them, plus saying he'll definitely qualify for all five remaining events may skew the data.
So who are the last eight:
Rob Cross 46750
James Wilson 41083
Steve Beaton 38757
Kyle Anderson 36540
Christian Kist 35210
Ronny Huybrechts 35084
Darren Webster 32327
Chris Dobey 32220
----------------------
John Henderson 31623
Jonny Clayton 31193
Justin Pipe 30927
Robbie Green 30463
Jermaine Wattimena 28000
Mark Webster 27523
James Richardson 26393
Jan Dekker 25916
Dimitri van den Bergh 24334
Jeffrey de Graaf 23784
Vincent van der Voort 23700
Kevin Painter 21260
Rowby John Rodriguez 21262
So it is, er, the exact same eight making it that are listed in Burton's tweet that I link to above. What a pointless exercise. But it should give you an idea on form who's closing the gap on form better than others.
Getting bets up for round 1 of Sindelfingen seems unlikely. Round 2 seems more realistic, watch on Friday evening/Saturday morning for plays.
Monday, 1 May 2017
Players Championship 9/10, Euro qualifiers
Seems like somewhat of a standard weekend with the world numbers 1 and 2 picking up the titles, but there's a fair bit underneath to have a look at underneath, so let's go:
Performance of the weekend - There's an awful lot of contenders for this. I'll mention Ratajski before I start as he's qualified for another three of the European Tour events, adding three grand guaranteed to the five he already has in the book means he doesn't need to do too much to qualify for the European Championship - it only took £8,500 to make it last year, although there are a couple of extra events this time around, slightly offset by seeds not getting ranking points if they bust in round 2. One win or another qualification should do it. Over here, Robbie Green made a semi final and backed it up with a last 16 run, but busted the two Euro qualifiers. Jonny Clayton made a quarter and the last 16, and was able to qualify for both of the Euro events, which is a bit better if you ask me. Nicholson picked up 1500 quid and qualified for one event, Hudson picked up a grand in each Pro Tour event, which was bettered by Jon Worsley, getting a last 32 and a quarter final. Simon Preston had a last 16 run and cashed the other event, Paul Rowley also managed to cash both events (including a win over Peter Wright) and see off Robert Thornton to qualify for Sindelfingen. Matt Clark did the qualifying double and got 1500 quid including a win over Whitlock, so deserves some credit as well. With nobody up top putting together two really deep runs I'm looking deeper, and I'll go for Jonny Clayton. 6-0 in both of the Euro qualifier finals and picking up nearly four grand before running into Adrian Lewis and Gary Anderson is a great return and sees him solidify his spot in my live adjusted top 50, gaining a couple of spots in the process with the potential to get more over the next two weekend, Josh Payne being very much in his sights to hit the top 45.
Best tournament performance - Thornton from nowhere to reach a final is an obvious choice, as he's played so bad over the last 18 months, but his level of opposition wasn't the greatest, as it's all kind of dangerous players, but ones he should beat - Steve Lennon and Ryan Searle leading the new card holder charge, Bowles can occasionally be a threat, Gilding is equally out of form, and de Decker isn't anything special. If the highest ranked player you beat is Robbie Green, then I'll look to alternatives. Green's semi final run wasn't too hot, he beat Suljovic in round 2 but aside from that, at least on current form, the best he beat was Darren Johnson. Mike de Decker probably had the best Saturday run, dropping no legs before round 3 where he beat Gurney and then won 6-2 over Edhouse. Let's look at Sunday - Steve West might be close, Jamie Lewis isn't the easiest round 1 opponent, Henderson isn't the easiest round 2 opponent, then you had Michael/Green/Norris before he ran into Anderson. I think it has to go to one of the tournament winners - Anderson beat both of the other two in the top 3 and dropped just five legs in the other five matches, while van Gerwen beat Lewis and Anderson, dropping seven legs in the other five games. I'll go for Anderson here.
Best single match performance - Darren Johnson 6-1 over Chisnall is a contender, Worsley managed to turn over Whitlock, Rowley over Wright is also a good shout. I think the Rowley win over Wright just takes it, with none of the top 3 losing to anyone outside of it other than this game, I think that's good enough.
Worst weekend long performance - Looking down the rankings, Barney took the weekend off (that I'm going to play everything didn't last too long), Taylor did as well, in the top 10 Wade had a shocker, beating Rob Hewson before losing 6-1 to John Bowles, then losing a first round deciding leg match against Ted Evetts. Huybrechts just outside also fared poorly, but at least his first round loss was to Rob Cross. The second round loss was to Ryan Searle though. Whitlock was poor, having a pair of opening round losses to Matt Clark and Jon Worsley, Bunting lost opening round games to Tabern and Payne, but at least qualified for the one Euro event he needed to, Webster also busted twice in round 1 to Murnan and Rowley, and busted one of the Euro qualifiers to Aden Kirk. Caven continues to bring the comedy, being swept by Clayton, losing to Andrew Gilding, and being denied in both Euro qualifiers by Matt Clark and Matthew Dennant, but this is expected of him now. Got to go to Whitlock, purely because he is in form and those losses are so unexpected.
Worst single tournament performance - Peter Wright when he went out in the last 64 is the only answer here.
This week I'm probably going to put up some thoughts on the 121 out, and maybe look at the Matchplay race a little, as it's getting quite tight for a lot of players.
Current adjusted top 20:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 Dave Chisnall (UP 1)
5 James Wade (DOWN 1)
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Phil Taylor
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Benito van de Pas
13 Simon Whitlock
14 Ian White
15 Gerwyn Price
16 Alan Norris
17 Daryl Gurney
18 Michael Smith
19 Robert Thornton
20 Joe Cullen
Performance of the weekend - There's an awful lot of contenders for this. I'll mention Ratajski before I start as he's qualified for another three of the European Tour events, adding three grand guaranteed to the five he already has in the book means he doesn't need to do too much to qualify for the European Championship - it only took £8,500 to make it last year, although there are a couple of extra events this time around, slightly offset by seeds not getting ranking points if they bust in round 2. One win or another qualification should do it. Over here, Robbie Green made a semi final and backed it up with a last 16 run, but busted the two Euro qualifiers. Jonny Clayton made a quarter and the last 16, and was able to qualify for both of the Euro events, which is a bit better if you ask me. Nicholson picked up 1500 quid and qualified for one event, Hudson picked up a grand in each Pro Tour event, which was bettered by Jon Worsley, getting a last 32 and a quarter final. Simon Preston had a last 16 run and cashed the other event, Paul Rowley also managed to cash both events (including a win over Peter Wright) and see off Robert Thornton to qualify for Sindelfingen. Matt Clark did the qualifying double and got 1500 quid including a win over Whitlock, so deserves some credit as well. With nobody up top putting together two really deep runs I'm looking deeper, and I'll go for Jonny Clayton. 6-0 in both of the Euro qualifier finals and picking up nearly four grand before running into Adrian Lewis and Gary Anderson is a great return and sees him solidify his spot in my live adjusted top 50, gaining a couple of spots in the process with the potential to get more over the next two weekend, Josh Payne being very much in his sights to hit the top 45.
Best tournament performance - Thornton from nowhere to reach a final is an obvious choice, as he's played so bad over the last 18 months, but his level of opposition wasn't the greatest, as it's all kind of dangerous players, but ones he should beat - Steve Lennon and Ryan Searle leading the new card holder charge, Bowles can occasionally be a threat, Gilding is equally out of form, and de Decker isn't anything special. If the highest ranked player you beat is Robbie Green, then I'll look to alternatives. Green's semi final run wasn't too hot, he beat Suljovic in round 2 but aside from that, at least on current form, the best he beat was Darren Johnson. Mike de Decker probably had the best Saturday run, dropping no legs before round 3 where he beat Gurney and then won 6-2 over Edhouse. Let's look at Sunday - Steve West might be close, Jamie Lewis isn't the easiest round 1 opponent, Henderson isn't the easiest round 2 opponent, then you had Michael/Green/Norris before he ran into Anderson. I think it has to go to one of the tournament winners - Anderson beat both of the other two in the top 3 and dropped just five legs in the other five matches, while van Gerwen beat Lewis and Anderson, dropping seven legs in the other five games. I'll go for Anderson here.
Best single match performance - Darren Johnson 6-1 over Chisnall is a contender, Worsley managed to turn over Whitlock, Rowley over Wright is also a good shout. I think the Rowley win over Wright just takes it, with none of the top 3 losing to anyone outside of it other than this game, I think that's good enough.
Worst weekend long performance - Looking down the rankings, Barney took the weekend off (that I'm going to play everything didn't last too long), Taylor did as well, in the top 10 Wade had a shocker, beating Rob Hewson before losing 6-1 to John Bowles, then losing a first round deciding leg match against Ted Evetts. Huybrechts just outside also fared poorly, but at least his first round loss was to Rob Cross. The second round loss was to Ryan Searle though. Whitlock was poor, having a pair of opening round losses to Matt Clark and Jon Worsley, Bunting lost opening round games to Tabern and Payne, but at least qualified for the one Euro event he needed to, Webster also busted twice in round 1 to Murnan and Rowley, and busted one of the Euro qualifiers to Aden Kirk. Caven continues to bring the comedy, being swept by Clayton, losing to Andrew Gilding, and being denied in both Euro qualifiers by Matt Clark and Matthew Dennant, but this is expected of him now. Got to go to Whitlock, purely because he is in form and those losses are so unexpected.
Worst single tournament performance - Peter Wright when he went out in the last 64 is the only answer here.
This week I'm probably going to put up some thoughts on the 121 out, and maybe look at the Matchplay race a little, as it's getting quite tight for a lot of players.
Current adjusted top 20:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 Dave Chisnall (UP 1)
5 James Wade (DOWN 1)
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Phil Taylor
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Benito van de Pas
13 Simon Whitlock
14 Ian White
15 Gerwyn Price
16 Alan Norris
17 Daryl Gurney
18 Michael Smith
19 Robert Thornton
20 Joe Cullen
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