Friday, 12 May 2017

121 out, early Gibraltar thoughts

Another weekend, another European Tour event. With the severely depleted field (no MvG, Anderson, Taylor or van Barneveld we knew about, Lewis dropped out yesterday) it's open season for this title. Obviously Wright is a big favourite, but he's in the same half as both Chisnall and Wade (although neither is in Wright's quarter), so there's great opportunities in the other half - Suljovic and Klaasen being the only players in the adjusted top 10 to be in that side of the draw (although numbers 11 through 14 are as well). Come to think of it, why the hell is it being held in Gibraltar? Surely Spain would be a much better bet when it comes to both growing the game and in terms of quality of player making it through - Reyes is seeded here but Alcinas and Rodriguez have both shown they can compete at a much higher level than any Gibraltan has ever done, Barbero's no mug either, giving them a shot would surely be better. Of course, the PDC is sponsored entirely by bookmakers, most of which fled to the Rock once the internet became a thing, so it's probably just an excuse for the PDC to nice them up or something.

Saw no bets I liked this morning. Keep an eye out tomorrow morning or later today for round 2.

So, a 121 out. Should we go treble first or bull first? Let's assign similar probabilities as we did when analysing the 135 - no bounceouts, no missed big numbers, hit trebles 1 out of 3, doubles 2 out of 5, and when shooting at bull we hit 1 in 5 and also miss completely 1 in 5.

Warning - lots of maths follows

Going treble first - a third of the time we leave 61 by hitting treble 20. Here, if we hit treble 11, we are either out or leave a shot at double. If we hit single eleven, we are out if we hit bull, or leave single for double most of the time, either by hitting 25, or hitting any other single number that isn't a large enough even number to get below 40. This gives:

Out: 2/45 (T20/T11/D14) plus 2/45 (T20/11/bull) = 4/45
On a double: 3/45 (T20/T11/miss) plus 1/75 (T20/11/even miss 10 or over) = 2/25
On single for double: 37/225 (T20/11/anything that isn't bull, 10, 12 etc)

The other two thirds of the time we leave 101, and go treble 17. Here, we either hit and have the same bull scenarios listed above, or miss and then go back upstairs and leave either a double or something in the 61-80 range (can go 16's to try to leave 36 if blocked, it doesn't change the equation). This gives:

Out: 2/45 (20/T17/bull)
On a double: 1/75 (20/T17/large even number) plus 4/27 (20, 17, T20) = 109/675
On single for double: 37/225 (20/T17/anything that isn't bull, 10, 12 etc)
On 61-80: 8/27 (20/17/20)

So in total, going treble first:

Out: 13.33%
On a double: 24.15%
On single for double: 32.89%
On 61-80: 29.63%

Now let's go bull first. If we hit the bull, we are either:

Out: 2/75 (bull/T13/D16)
On a double: 13/75 (bull/any other two dart combo)

If we hit 25, we are either:

Out: 2/25 (25/T20/D18)
On a double: 3/25 (25/T20/miss) plus 2/15 (25/20/T20) = 19/75
On single for double: 4/15 (25/20/20)

If we miss completely, it gets quite sketchy as there become lots of permutations, so let's be careful. Four misses don't actually kill us as they leave 101, 104, 107 or 110 so if we hit one of those we have:

Out: 1/375 (20, 17 etc/Tsomething/bull)
On a double: 1/1250 (20, 17 etc/Tsomething/big even number) plus 2/225 (20, 17 etc/miss treble/hit treble) = 109/11250
On single for double: 37/3750 (20, 17 etc/Tsomething/anything that isn't bull, 10, 12 etc)
On 61-80: 4/225 (20, 17 etc/miss treble/miss treble)

If we hit 2 to leave 119, this is the only shot which doesn't leave a fat number to leave a double if we hit a treble, assuming we go 19 first, so this leaves:

On a double: 1/900 (2/T19/T10) plus 2/900 (2/19/T20) = 1/300
On single for double: 2/900 (2/T19/10)
On 61-80: 4/900 (2/19/20)

The rest of the permutations don't give us a shot, but all give us a dart at a double with exactly one treble. Thus we have:

61-80: 1/15 (random big number/miss treble/miss treble)
On a double: 1/12 (random big number/hit one treble in two darts)

Sum all that wall of figured together, and we get:

Out: 10.93%
On a double: 52.30%
On single for double: 27.88%
On 61-80: 8.89%

Cliffs: going bull first goes out 2.4% less often, or 1 in 40 legs, but leaves us on a double more than twice as often if we don't, giving us an extra dart next visit much, much more frequently.

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