Saturday, 13 May 2017

Gibraltar day 2

Day 1 is in the books, let's see what I like on day 2:

- The Reyes and Gurney lines look close enough to right to not consider
- Clark at 7/2 vs Norris is an interesting one, he wasn't bad when he ran into Chisnall in god mode last weekend, and had some good legs mixed in with some bad legs in winning yesterday. I think there might be value given Norris hasn't exactly been setting the tour on fire, especially in Europe. We only need 23% to bet here and I think we have enough, so 0.25u Clark 7/2
- Benito should be fine against Schindler, there were just way too many long legs from Martin yesterday to consider betting
- Quantock, while he's looked alright when I have seen him, didn't do enough yesterday to make me think he's on top form, which I think against Bunting I think he'll need, if he did a bit more I'd probably bet Quantock as Bunting's been incredibly unconvincing for a while now
- Klaasen should roll Caris
- Kist's a strange one, he got some good holds but then allowed Huybrechts to break with relative ease in others, very inconsistent. I don't think that he can pull together enough good legs to win enough against Smith
- Cullen/Cross is a pick'em game, which looks about right
- Johnson had some good fifteen dart legs against Vilerio, should have had another in the one leg that he lost, Price is a step up but we're being spotted decent odds, I think he can get there enough so 0.25u Johnson 13/5
- Huge opportunity for Suljovic this weekend, so I can't see him messing up against Tabern, who I don't think played well enough for long enough to truly threaten
- Chisnall, as mentioned a few times, is on great form, but 1/5 against Clayton? If Clayton misses doubles like he did yesterday then I think that it could be accurate, but I'm not sure that he does that again, and Chisnall was a bit of a clown show in the Premier League, at least until Wade got to match point and he remembered how to play. Very small bet here, 0.1u Clayton 5/1
- Ratajski at 9/1 vs Wright is nearly tempting, but I can't see Wright tripping up here
- Wade's over a 75% favourite against van den Bergh, who was pretty sloppy in round one but still won 6-2, Dimitri could turn up and cause the upset, but I doubt it's enough to bet
- Wilson didn't really start yesterday until he was 2-1 up, if he does that today he's probably 3-0 down instead, 89 average with no help from his opponent isn't as bad as it sounds but Wilson did hit 6/10 doubles, I think he can't win enough times here.
- Hendo only had two good legs yesterday - a fifteen darter which he rescued with a 170 kill, and a twelve darter to break and lead 5-3. White's been playing well over the past month and should capitalise on the up and down game of the Scot - 1u White 4/11
- Whitlock/Beaton has, if Beaton plays like he did yesterday, the potential to be closer than the linemakers suggest, this looks like a decent value play against the Aussie who was bad on the last Pro Tour weekend, and looked OK last week when running into Cross but nothing like peak Whitlock - 0.25u Beaton 9/4

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