Was only able to get one bet up for yesterday, but at least it worked - I suppose the big thing is that results have really opened up the tournament - van Gerwen looks as close as a lock as you can get to reach the semis, while the corresponding quarter is all seeds, meanwhile on the other side Peter Wright's elimination opens things up primarily for Mensur Suljovic, who had one of the standout performances of today, but for a bunch of other players - there's nothing to say that Viljanen can't beat Chris Dobey and reach the final session on this form, while Huybrechts, Cullen, Klaasen, Smith and King are all players who are capable of reaching a final. Let's go through the bracket:
Michael van Gerwen/Vincent van der Meer - Stupid odds obviously, van Gerwen didn't look on top form against Kallinger, but didn't need to be, performing at the sort of level that van der Meer has been this weekend, won't be touching this but it's hard to see how van Gerwen doesn't kick things up and advance easily.
Jamie Bain/Martin Schindler - Bookies have this close to evens, as Schindler had easily the best performance of his short career in beating Ian White with fifteen darters for fun. Bain I mentioned yesterday, and my stats, while both are very limited, suggest that Bain should be a substantial favourite. This looks a great spot - 0.5u Bain 5/6
Benito van de Pas/Daryl Gurney - The bookies look to have this absolutely bang on - they have Gurney as the slightest of favourites in a flip, and so do I. Gurney's probably been the more consistent of recent while Benito's form has been real patchy, Gurney looked a touch better in round 2, I wouldn't disagree with you if you wanted to bet Gurney but I don't think there's enough edge.
Simon Whitlock/Cristo Reyes - Whitlock's listed as having a really small edge, no more than around 55/45, Reyes played a bit better in the legs he won today but lost a lot more, my stats say that Whitlock should be a small favourite, so will leave alone.
Kim Viljanen/Chris Dobey - Huge game for Dobey, who's already done enough this weekend to massively improve his Matchplay chances, and he's fallen into a great position to do even better. The stats of the two on won legs is extremely close - Viljanen actually having a tiny 1% edge to win in regulation, but Kim has quite a small sample and Dobey leads by 8 points on losing average. Dobey's somewhere in the 62-65% favourite range on the market, I'll leave it alone.
Kim Huybrechts/Joe Cullen - I think this should be a bet for Huybrechts. The market has it as him having not even a 60/40 edge, which I think he easily has - while Kim's weakness is his inconsistency, his average on losing legs is within Cullen's to 0.02 per visit. When he's winning legs he's blowing Cullen out of the water. Let's punt - 0.5u Huybrechts 3/4
Jelle Klaasen/Michael Smith - Smith is a small favourite after seeing off Chris Quantock who didn't show, despite Klaasen beating Rob Cross 6-0. Smith did a bit better on raw stats today, looks better than Jelle on historical stats, but not by a large enough amount where I want to gamble. Should be a great watch.
Mensur Suljovic/Mervyn King - Mensur's two twelve darters backed up with a couple of fifteens was the best performance of the day as far as I'm concerned and will have the home crowd behind him against King, who swatted aside Zoran Lerchbacher in great style, every won leg in fifteen or less, finishing with a twelve. Mensur's a bit shorter than a 2/1 favourite and seems to be peaking in form, but I think there's potentially very small value on King - if it wasn't being played in Austria. It is, so I'll say the line is fine.
Saturday, 24 June 2017
Austria day 2, one quick bet
Don't have a lot of time to look too in depth regarding the betting for this one, and scanned yesterday's and didn't like much. There is one line I do like though - 0.25u Bain 11/4 vs Norris - Bain's statistics before today were twelve out of fifteen won legs in fifteen darts or less - yesterday he held with fifteen, broke with fifteen, held with fifteen, missed three at double to break in fifteen, held in fifteen, broke in fifteen then held in eighteen. Of course, he's inconsistent and averages low 80's in the legs he loses, but there's little to suggest that Norris is playing well enough for this not to be a value bet, even if Bain is on a bad leg he may well get shots.
Sunday, 18 June 2017
Players Championship 13/14 aftermath
These events got finished today, as well as the qualifier for Leverkusen, so let's get right into it:
Performance of the weekend - A few contenders here, but I think it has to go to Gary Anderson for a win and a final, regardless of how highly ranked you are, that's some feat. Contenders included Rob Cross, with his two semi final performances pushing him up into my live top 35, Robert Thornton and Daryl Gurney had solid weekends, Vincent van der Voort was solid, Richard North was really close to winning this with a quarter final, last sixteen and qualification for Leverkusen, Richie Corner also deserves a mention for two board finals, pushing him close to the live top 80.
Best tournament performance - Step up Steve Beaton, winning a first title in a long time, including wins over Anderson, Cross, Chisnall and whitewashes of Shepherd and Dennant. Shepherd and de Zwaan's quarter final runs should be mentioned in dispatches, along with Ian White making another final.
Best single match performance - Nothing really stood out in the Euro qualifier, and nothing seemed amazing today, so let's look at Saturday - Harry Robinson (who I assumed was some upcoming kid, not someone who played the worlds twenty years ago, oops) with two 6-0 wins to open up including over Steve West seems like a good shout, and I can't see anything that really gets too close. In a weekend where it seems the older guys brought it, this seems appropriate.
Worst weekend long performance - A few bad performances from highly ranked players - Wright, as the top seed in both, only raked in £2500, but falling to van der Voort and Cross, on current form, isn't really that bad, Klaasen lost to Meeuwisse and Newell after beating Brian Woods, which seems hard to beat, then Benito van de Pas lost both first round games to Steve Hine and Richie Corner, so there's that. Benito it is.
Worst single tournament performance - Wade losing round 1 to Wattimena isn't really that much of a shock, so let's revert to Jelle Klaasen going down in the opening round to Yordi Meeuwisse.
Current adjusted top 20 - King would have been back up in the top 20, but Thornton outplayed him enough this weekend so he holds on for now:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 James Wade
6 Mensur Suljovic
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Adrian Lewis
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Michael Smith
11 Ian White (UP 3)
12 Daryl Gurney (UP 3)
13 Simon Whitlock (DOWN 2)
14 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 1)
15 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 3)
16 Phil Taylor
17 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
18 Alan Norris (DOWN 1)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Robert Thornton
Performance of the weekend - A few contenders here, but I think it has to go to Gary Anderson for a win and a final, regardless of how highly ranked you are, that's some feat. Contenders included Rob Cross, with his two semi final performances pushing him up into my live top 35, Robert Thornton and Daryl Gurney had solid weekends, Vincent van der Voort was solid, Richard North was really close to winning this with a quarter final, last sixteen and qualification for Leverkusen, Richie Corner also deserves a mention for two board finals, pushing him close to the live top 80.
Best tournament performance - Step up Steve Beaton, winning a first title in a long time, including wins over Anderson, Cross, Chisnall and whitewashes of Shepherd and Dennant. Shepherd and de Zwaan's quarter final runs should be mentioned in dispatches, along with Ian White making another final.
Best single match performance - Nothing really stood out in the Euro qualifier, and nothing seemed amazing today, so let's look at Saturday - Harry Robinson (who I assumed was some upcoming kid, not someone who played the worlds twenty years ago, oops) with two 6-0 wins to open up including over Steve West seems like a good shout, and I can't see anything that really gets too close. In a weekend where it seems the older guys brought it, this seems appropriate.
Worst weekend long performance - A few bad performances from highly ranked players - Wright, as the top seed in both, only raked in £2500, but falling to van der Voort and Cross, on current form, isn't really that bad, Klaasen lost to Meeuwisse and Newell after beating Brian Woods, which seems hard to beat, then Benito van de Pas lost both first round games to Steve Hine and Richie Corner, so there's that. Benito it is.
Worst single tournament performance - Wade losing round 1 to Wattimena isn't really that much of a shock, so let's revert to Jelle Klaasen going down in the opening round to Yordi Meeuwisse.
Current adjusted top 20 - King would have been back up in the top 20, but Thornton outplayed him enough this weekend so he holds on for now:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 James Wade
6 Mensur Suljovic
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Adrian Lewis
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Michael Smith
11 Ian White (UP 3)
12 Daryl Gurney (UP 3)
13 Simon Whitlock (DOWN 2)
14 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 1)
15 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 3)
16 Phil Taylor
17 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
18 Alan Norris (DOWN 1)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Robert Thornton
Wednesday, 14 June 2017
Challenge Tour
While Hamburg was going on last weekend, we had the penultimate weekend of Challenge Tour matches, notably Mark Dudbridge won one and finalled another to open up over an £800 lead in second place, with Wayne Jones still leading the way in the race for a tour card. Matt Edgar won another from seemingly nowhere, it's not unexpected given what we know of him (he did after all make the Players Championship Finals last year) but his form this year, when he's been playing, has been iffy, while Kevin McDine and Warrick Scheffer grabbed the other two events, climbing to sixth and tenth respectively, while Luke Humphries kept in touch with a £1500 weekend. Will be interesting to see what happens on the last week, which isn't until September.
The main point of this post is re: Lisa Ashton, who's played three of the four weekends (I think the fourth clashed with a ranking BDO event), and didn't do too badly at all, making a quarter final and picking up £550. There was a suggestion that the BDO should use one of its wild card slots for the Grand Slam on Ashton on account of being back to back world champion, with Durrant having two of the automatic spots from being both the world champion and World Master. I'm not so sure.
While I don't track the women's events, it was pretty easy to look up Ashton's results in the two most recent ranking events (the BDO site doesn't keep news older than that, so if there were stats for the World Masters, I couldn't find them). She's won 30 legs and lost 13, what are her numbers like?
Out of the legs lost, she's averaging 83, which is in the same ballpark as Kevin Painter, James Richardson, Devon Petersen and Mark McGeeney, so not too shabby. Bear in mind that nobody in my whole database even averages 98 on this stat.
In terms of twelve darters, she did this twice, so 6.66%, which again isn't sloppy. There's a possibility of sample size issues, but this is a better number than Alan Norris, James Wilson, Brendan Dolan and Mark Webster. However, it becomes a bit unstuck when you look at other stats. Another eight of those legs were in fifteen darts, which makes fifteen darts or fewer weigh in at 33.33%, i.e. one in three. This is a similar number again to McGeeney, but of those with any sort of sample, the only ones who are really much worse are BDO players - the only PDC player with any sort of sample that's this poor is Martin Schindler, who's down below 25%.
It doesn't get better looking at eighteen dart legs - this is only 70% overall. There's a few players from the PDC down this sort of level - Jamie Caven, Devon Petersen and Andrew Gilding are less than three points higher, Andy Hamilton's basically the same, but there is nobody with a sample size as large as Ashton's that is below 70%.
So how would she actually do in the Slam? Let's recall the selection - it's 16 players from winning or finalling PDC events, 8 players from a PDC qualifier and then 8 players from the BDO, of which she would be one. Let's say she gets the easiest draw she can from the automatic qualifiers, which given the selection methods, we'll call James Wade and Mark Webster, and that she also draws someone who's down on the cusp of the top 64 in the PDC who's binked the qualifier. We need someone with a sample, let's go with James Richardson. We'll mix it up a touch and say that it's actually played under Premier League rules rather than a race to five, only so I don't need to tweak a spreadsheet, and we play all 12 legs so we can say a most likely result without worrying about stopping at 7 legs:
vs Wade: 8.53% win, 13.89% draw, 77.57% loss, most likely result 8-4 Wade
vs Webster: 14.29% win, 18.08% draw, 67.64% loss, most likely result 7-5 Webster
vs Richardson: 14.61% win, 18.13% draw, 67.26% loss, most likely result 7-5 Richardson
Should she get a bad draw and end up in van Gerwen's group: 0.63% win, 2.44% draw, 96.93% loss, most likely result 9-3 van Gerwen.
The main point of this post is re: Lisa Ashton, who's played three of the four weekends (I think the fourth clashed with a ranking BDO event), and didn't do too badly at all, making a quarter final and picking up £550. There was a suggestion that the BDO should use one of its wild card slots for the Grand Slam on Ashton on account of being back to back world champion, with Durrant having two of the automatic spots from being both the world champion and World Master. I'm not so sure.
While I don't track the women's events, it was pretty easy to look up Ashton's results in the two most recent ranking events (the BDO site doesn't keep news older than that, so if there were stats for the World Masters, I couldn't find them). She's won 30 legs and lost 13, what are her numbers like?
Out of the legs lost, she's averaging 83, which is in the same ballpark as Kevin Painter, James Richardson, Devon Petersen and Mark McGeeney, so not too shabby. Bear in mind that nobody in my whole database even averages 98 on this stat.
In terms of twelve darters, she did this twice, so 6.66%, which again isn't sloppy. There's a possibility of sample size issues, but this is a better number than Alan Norris, James Wilson, Brendan Dolan and Mark Webster. However, it becomes a bit unstuck when you look at other stats. Another eight of those legs were in fifteen darts, which makes fifteen darts or fewer weigh in at 33.33%, i.e. one in three. This is a similar number again to McGeeney, but of those with any sort of sample, the only ones who are really much worse are BDO players - the only PDC player with any sort of sample that's this poor is Martin Schindler, who's down below 25%.
It doesn't get better looking at eighteen dart legs - this is only 70% overall. There's a few players from the PDC down this sort of level - Jamie Caven, Devon Petersen and Andrew Gilding are less than three points higher, Andy Hamilton's basically the same, but there is nobody with a sample size as large as Ashton's that is below 70%.
So how would she actually do in the Slam? Let's recall the selection - it's 16 players from winning or finalling PDC events, 8 players from a PDC qualifier and then 8 players from the BDO, of which she would be one. Let's say she gets the easiest draw she can from the automatic qualifiers, which given the selection methods, we'll call James Wade and Mark Webster, and that she also draws someone who's down on the cusp of the top 64 in the PDC who's binked the qualifier. We need someone with a sample, let's go with James Richardson. We'll mix it up a touch and say that it's actually played under Premier League rules rather than a race to five, only so I don't need to tweak a spreadsheet, and we play all 12 legs so we can say a most likely result without worrying about stopping at 7 legs:
vs Wade: 8.53% win, 13.89% draw, 77.57% loss, most likely result 8-4 Wade
vs Webster: 14.29% win, 18.08% draw, 67.64% loss, most likely result 7-5 Webster
vs Richardson: 14.61% win, 18.13% draw, 67.26% loss, most likely result 7-5 Richardson
Should she get a bad draw and end up in van Gerwen's group: 0.63% win, 2.44% draw, 96.93% loss, most likely result 9-3 van Gerwen.
Sunday, 11 June 2017
Hamburg aftermath
So that's the sixth European event in the books, half way through the schedule, and it's another win for Michael van Gerwen, with a simply crushing performance right throughout the event. What awards shall I give? Let's see.
Best player performance: Michael van Gerwen. Hudson is close and he played some great stuff, but in a lot of cases he just ran into someone not on his game, and exploited it. MvG didn't care what the other guy was doing and rolled regardless. I'd give the best single match performance to MvG if I didn't generally not give multiple awards to the same player - four twelve darters in one first to six game is insane. He didn't miss a beat throughout the event, only the semi final wasn't really peak performance.
Best single match performance: A few contenders here, Stephen Bunting's return to form against Kyle Anderson was pleasing, Dave Chisnall against James Wilson was top notch, but it has to go to Cristo Reyes - beating a top three player with every leg in under fifteen darts on his end, including two twelve darters, truly shows what he can do.
Worst player performance: James Wade, holy mother of God, wins two legs, neither in fifteen and one in more than eighteen, and in the legs he didn't win he averaged 67? Go home lad, you're drunk.
Worst single match performance: Can't give to Wade twice, so let's give it to Hopp. Hugely favoured opening game on home soil, blasts in a twelve dart leg to break including a 170 kill in the opening leg, holds to make it 2-0, then averages under 80 for the rest of it and loses 6-2. Just get some consistency. It'll come, he is after all just 20, but it seems like he should have enough experience to grind out these sorts of games given the great start he had, rather than capitulating in hilarious fashion.
Up 4.3 units on the betting this weekend. It does feel good when the underdog bets hit, it gives some cushion when two favourite bets that look like locks don't come in at all.
New adjusted top 20 - as mentioned a few posts ago, I'll include the full top 100, and their current score to three significant figures. Plus/minus in the top 20 is from the last table of just the top 20, if you want to see the change from the last top 100, dig it out in the archives, I think the last one followed the worlds.
1 Michael van Gerwen 1.12m
2 Peter Wright 473k
3 Gary Anderson 427k
4 Dave Chisnall 225k
5 James Wade 214k
6 Mensur Suljovic 209k (UP 1)
7 Raymond van Barneveld 207k (DOWN 1)
8 Adrian Lewis 186k
9 Jelle Klaasen 181k
10 Michael Smith 176k (UP 1)
11 Simon Whitlock 175k (DOWN 1)
12 Benito van de Pas 173k
13 Kim Huybrechts 171k
14 Ian White 170k (UP 1)
15 Daryl Gurney 169k (UP 1)
16 Phil Taylor 165k (DOWN 2)
17 Alan Norris 161k (UP 1)
18 Gerwyn Price 160k (DOWN 1)
19 Joe Cullen 122k
20 Robert Thornton 111k
21 Mervyn King 110k
22 Stephen Bunting 101k
23 Cristo Reyes 97.1k
24 Darren Webster 89.2k
25 Steve Beaton 88.3k
26 Mark Webster 87.5k
27 Terry Jenkins 85.6k
28 Kyle Anderson 81.9k
29 Brendan Dolan 81.8k
30 James Wilson 76.5k
31 Chris Dobey 72.7k
32 Justin Pipe 71.4k
33 Vincent van der Voort 70.6k
34 Steve West 70.0k
35 Robbie Green 62.3k
36 Christian Kist 61.8k
37 Jamie Caven 57.6k
38 Rob Cross 56.6k
39 John Henderson 56.5k
40 Jermaine Wattimena 54.0k
41 Max Hopp 52.8k
42 Jonny Clayton 52.5k
43 Jamie Lewis 51.4k
44 Ronny Huybrechts 51.0k
45 Kevin Painter 49.0k
46 Dimitri van den Bergh 48.9k
47 Andrew Gilding 46.1k
48 Josh Payne 44.5k
49 Rowby John Rodriguez 42.2k
50 Joe Murnan 42.1k
51 Ricky Evans 41.2k
52 Mick McGowan 38.6k
53 Jeffrey de Graaf 37.8k
54 Ron Meulenkamp 34.7k
55 Devon Petersen 33.7k
56 Jan Dekker 33.2k
57 James Richardson 32.8k
58 John Michael 31.5k
59 Dirk van Duijvenbode 27.8k
60 Dave Pallett 27.4k
61 Keegan Brown 25.4k
62 Andy Hamilton 24.1k
63 Darren Johnson 23.9k
64 Zoran Lerchbacher 23.6k
65 Simon Stevenson 21.3k
66 Willie O'Connor 20.9k
67 Andy Jenkins 20.9k
68 Andy Boulton 20.5k
69 Mark Frost 20.1k
70 Pete Hudson 19.7k
71 Ted Evetts 19.6k
72 Magnus Caris 18.7k
73 Mickey Mansell 17.8k
74 Ronnie Baxter 17.7k
75 Paul Nicholson 17.2k
76 Wayne Jones 16.5k
77 Mike de Decker 16.5k
78 Vincent Kamphuis 16.0k
79 Berry van Peer 16.0k
80 Mark Walsh 15.8k
81 Richard North 15.5k
82 Matt Clark 15.3k
83 John Bowles 15.0k
84 Dragutin Horvat 14.9k
85 Wes Newton 14.7k
86 Alan Tabern 14.3k
87 Kim Viljanen 14.2k
88 Peter Jacques 14.0k
89 Richie Corner 13.9k
90 Stuart Kellett 13.9k
91 Chris Quantock 13.4k
92 Jeffrey de Zwaan 12.9k
93 Ryan Searle 12.8k
94 Nathan Aspinall 12.6k
95 Yordi Meeuwisse 12.4k
96 Steve Hine 12.2k
97 Steve Lennon 12.0k
98 Mick Todd 11.6k
99 Ryan Meikle 11.4k
100 Martin Schindler 11.3k
Best player performance: Michael van Gerwen. Hudson is close and he played some great stuff, but in a lot of cases he just ran into someone not on his game, and exploited it. MvG didn't care what the other guy was doing and rolled regardless. I'd give the best single match performance to MvG if I didn't generally not give multiple awards to the same player - four twelve darters in one first to six game is insane. He didn't miss a beat throughout the event, only the semi final wasn't really peak performance.
Best single match performance: A few contenders here, Stephen Bunting's return to form against Kyle Anderson was pleasing, Dave Chisnall against James Wilson was top notch, but it has to go to Cristo Reyes - beating a top three player with every leg in under fifteen darts on his end, including two twelve darters, truly shows what he can do.
Worst player performance: James Wade, holy mother of God, wins two legs, neither in fifteen and one in more than eighteen, and in the legs he didn't win he averaged 67? Go home lad, you're drunk.
Worst single match performance: Can't give to Wade twice, so let's give it to Hopp. Hugely favoured opening game on home soil, blasts in a twelve dart leg to break including a 170 kill in the opening leg, holds to make it 2-0, then averages under 80 for the rest of it and loses 6-2. Just get some consistency. It'll come, he is after all just 20, but it seems like he should have enough experience to grind out these sorts of games given the great start he had, rather than capitulating in hilarious fashion.
Up 4.3 units on the betting this weekend. It does feel good when the underdog bets hit, it gives some cushion when two favourite bets that look like locks don't come in at all.
New adjusted top 20 - as mentioned a few posts ago, I'll include the full top 100, and their current score to three significant figures. Plus/minus in the top 20 is from the last table of just the top 20, if you want to see the change from the last top 100, dig it out in the archives, I think the last one followed the worlds.
1 Michael van Gerwen 1.12m
2 Peter Wright 473k
3 Gary Anderson 427k
4 Dave Chisnall 225k
5 James Wade 214k
6 Mensur Suljovic 209k (UP 1)
7 Raymond van Barneveld 207k (DOWN 1)
8 Adrian Lewis 186k
9 Jelle Klaasen 181k
10 Michael Smith 176k (UP 1)
11 Simon Whitlock 175k (DOWN 1)
12 Benito van de Pas 173k
13 Kim Huybrechts 171k
14 Ian White 170k (UP 1)
15 Daryl Gurney 169k (UP 1)
16 Phil Taylor 165k (DOWN 2)
17 Alan Norris 161k (UP 1)
18 Gerwyn Price 160k (DOWN 1)
19 Joe Cullen 122k
20 Robert Thornton 111k
21 Mervyn King 110k
22 Stephen Bunting 101k
23 Cristo Reyes 97.1k
24 Darren Webster 89.2k
25 Steve Beaton 88.3k
26 Mark Webster 87.5k
27 Terry Jenkins 85.6k
28 Kyle Anderson 81.9k
29 Brendan Dolan 81.8k
30 James Wilson 76.5k
31 Chris Dobey 72.7k
32 Justin Pipe 71.4k
33 Vincent van der Voort 70.6k
34 Steve West 70.0k
35 Robbie Green 62.3k
36 Christian Kist 61.8k
37 Jamie Caven 57.6k
38 Rob Cross 56.6k
39 John Henderson 56.5k
40 Jermaine Wattimena 54.0k
41 Max Hopp 52.8k
42 Jonny Clayton 52.5k
43 Jamie Lewis 51.4k
44 Ronny Huybrechts 51.0k
45 Kevin Painter 49.0k
46 Dimitri van den Bergh 48.9k
47 Andrew Gilding 46.1k
48 Josh Payne 44.5k
49 Rowby John Rodriguez 42.2k
50 Joe Murnan 42.1k
51 Ricky Evans 41.2k
52 Mick McGowan 38.6k
53 Jeffrey de Graaf 37.8k
54 Ron Meulenkamp 34.7k
55 Devon Petersen 33.7k
56 Jan Dekker 33.2k
57 James Richardson 32.8k
58 John Michael 31.5k
59 Dirk van Duijvenbode 27.8k
60 Dave Pallett 27.4k
61 Keegan Brown 25.4k
62 Andy Hamilton 24.1k
63 Darren Johnson 23.9k
64 Zoran Lerchbacher 23.6k
65 Simon Stevenson 21.3k
66 Willie O'Connor 20.9k
67 Andy Jenkins 20.9k
68 Andy Boulton 20.5k
69 Mark Frost 20.1k
70 Pete Hudson 19.7k
71 Ted Evetts 19.6k
72 Magnus Caris 18.7k
73 Mickey Mansell 17.8k
74 Ronnie Baxter 17.7k
75 Paul Nicholson 17.2k
76 Wayne Jones 16.5k
77 Mike de Decker 16.5k
78 Vincent Kamphuis 16.0k
79 Berry van Peer 16.0k
80 Mark Walsh 15.8k
81 Richard North 15.5k
82 Matt Clark 15.3k
83 John Bowles 15.0k
84 Dragutin Horvat 14.9k
85 Wes Newton 14.7k
86 Alan Tabern 14.3k
87 Kim Viljanen 14.2k
88 Peter Jacques 14.0k
89 Richie Corner 13.9k
90 Stuart Kellett 13.9k
91 Chris Quantock 13.4k
92 Jeffrey de Zwaan 12.9k
93 Ryan Searle 12.8k
94 Nathan Aspinall 12.6k
95 Yordi Meeuwisse 12.4k
96 Steve Hine 12.2k
97 Steve Lennon 12.0k
98 Mick Todd 11.6k
99 Ryan Meikle 11.4k
100 Martin Schindler 11.3k
Hamburg final session
Thanks for busting 20 three times in a row Alan, much appreciated
No huge surprises apart from Hudson making the final session from nowhere, obviously van Gerwen should be much too strong and is priced at stupid/1 on for the match. The other games should be fairly evenly poised, let's have a quick look:
Suljovic/Chisnall - Chizzy's a bit more odds on than I'd have thought, with my stats coming up 38-35 to Chisnall and the remaining games going 5-5, but Chisnall has looked a lot, lot better than Suljovic this weekend - enough that I think the line is fine.
Bunting/Reyes - Bunting was very classy in winning every leg against Kyle Anderson in fifteen darts or less, nearly the only player to have done that this weekend. The other is Cristo Reyes won a tussle against Peter Wright with two twelve darters and the rest in fifteen. This should be an easier task, and Reyes is a tiny, tiny favourite at the bookies. However, my stats give Reyes a much bigger edge - 46-29. Questions are whether Bunting will continue to trend upwards, he's played better each round, first round was fairly scrappy, second one was tidy enough, whether he copes with what looks like a hot venue better than Reyes, which seems doubtful as it's more like Tenerife than St Helens, and whether Bunting can actually slam in the twelve darter if needed to break at a key spot. He's not hit one all weekend. Reyes might suffer from a bit of a comedown after the win over Wright, but it still seems worth a Reyes punt - 0.5u Reyes 10/11
Smith/Cullen - Smith's around a 60/40 favourite in the market, maybe slightly closer (oddschecker's using funny numbers as the shortest), my numbers have it as a 44-30 game, which looks close enough to not bet - Cullen has looked very good, five out of six legs in five visits vs Pipe and four today (including one twelve darter) in holding off a van der Voort charge, while Smith has also appeared solid - five straight legs in fifteen or less against Hamilton earlier to effectively seal the tie at 5-1, and two twelve dart legs in a 6-1 first round win. Should just be a good game to watch without any betting implications.
van Gerwen/Hudson - just for fun, I have van Gerwen winning 95.5% of games before a deciding leg to Hudson's 1%, with a bagelling at over 20% probability, not even worth betting that outcome at 10/3.
Not going to be able to post in time for the semis and final - it's always a quick turnaround even if the bookies are prompt in pricing it up and I'm out playing myself anyway, but some semi final projections for you if you want to bet yourself. These are percentages to win 6-4 or better, the remainder are last leg deciders:
MvG/Smith - 69/12
MvG/Cullen - 76/8
Suljovic/Bunting - 57/19
Suljovic/Reyes - 47/27
Chisnall/Reyes - 47/27
Chisnall/Bunting - 56/20
No huge surprises apart from Hudson making the final session from nowhere, obviously van Gerwen should be much too strong and is priced at stupid/1 on for the match. The other games should be fairly evenly poised, let's have a quick look:
Suljovic/Chisnall - Chizzy's a bit more odds on than I'd have thought, with my stats coming up 38-35 to Chisnall and the remaining games going 5-5, but Chisnall has looked a lot, lot better than Suljovic this weekend - enough that I think the line is fine.
Bunting/Reyes - Bunting was very classy in winning every leg against Kyle Anderson in fifteen darts or less, nearly the only player to have done that this weekend. The other is Cristo Reyes won a tussle against Peter Wright with two twelve darters and the rest in fifteen. This should be an easier task, and Reyes is a tiny, tiny favourite at the bookies. However, my stats give Reyes a much bigger edge - 46-29. Questions are whether Bunting will continue to trend upwards, he's played better each round, first round was fairly scrappy, second one was tidy enough, whether he copes with what looks like a hot venue better than Reyes, which seems doubtful as it's more like Tenerife than St Helens, and whether Bunting can actually slam in the twelve darter if needed to break at a key spot. He's not hit one all weekend. Reyes might suffer from a bit of a comedown after the win over Wright, but it still seems worth a Reyes punt - 0.5u Reyes 10/11
Smith/Cullen - Smith's around a 60/40 favourite in the market, maybe slightly closer (oddschecker's using funny numbers as the shortest), my numbers have it as a 44-30 game, which looks close enough to not bet - Cullen has looked very good, five out of six legs in five visits vs Pipe and four today (including one twelve darter) in holding off a van der Voort charge, while Smith has also appeared solid - five straight legs in fifteen or less against Hamilton earlier to effectively seal the tie at 5-1, and two twelve dart legs in a 6-1 first round win. Should just be a good game to watch without any betting implications.
van Gerwen/Hudson - just for fun, I have van Gerwen winning 95.5% of games before a deciding leg to Hudson's 1%, with a bagelling at over 20% probability, not even worth betting that outcome at 10/3.
Not going to be able to post in time for the semis and final - it's always a quick turnaround even if the bookies are prompt in pricing it up and I'm out playing myself anyway, but some semi final projections for you if you want to bet yourself. These are percentages to win 6-4 or better, the remainder are last leg deciders:
MvG/Smith - 69/12
MvG/Cullen - 76/8
Suljovic/Bunting - 57/19
Suljovic/Reyes - 47/27
Chisnall/Reyes - 47/27
Chisnall/Bunting - 56/20
Saturday, 10 June 2017
Hamburg last 16
Ahhhhhh, that's better. Whitlock completely fucking up against Hamilton aside, I can't really ask for a better round of 32 and event in general, up nearly 4 units so far. Last sixteen kicks off tomorrow, let's have a look:
Suljovic/Gurney - Gurney really didn't impress against Hendriks, only managing one leg in fifteen darts or less, which really won't hack it against Suljovic, then again, he only managed two, albeit one when it absolutely mattered, to get a twelve darter to break in leg 10, but even after that he should have been eliminated, van Duijvenbode couldn't finish in the eighteen darts he was given. The market has Mensur as a small favourite, my stats have Mensur as a bigger favourite but I don't think they quite account enough for Gurney's recent improvements in play (they go back as far as last September). A small punt looks OK though - 0.5u Suljovic 4/5
Chisnall/White - Chizzy completely crushed today with three twelve dart or better legs, easily the performance of the round. White got by with five out of six won legs in six visits, thus Chisnall is installed as a heavy favourite. The line looks as if it should be marginal White value on historic form, but given yesterday I'm fine ignoring it.
Bunting/Anderson - Bunting looked solid against Klaasen, 6-2 with four in fifteen and the others in eighteen, Anderson won by the same score with slightly worse legs, only getting the two in under fifteen against a far, far below par Wade. Bookies have Bunting a small favourite. My stats like Anderson again, much like yesterday's match, but I do wonder if he can pick the game up to his standard level after round 2's basically free win. He wasn't exactly on fire against Kist either. Will leave it alone.
Wright/Reyes - Wright is a big, big favourite here, after Reyes dodged some bullets against Nathan Aspinall who was probably the better player but couldn't get over the line from a 4-3 lead. Reyes as a tiny punt would look OK if he played decently in his opening game, but I don't think he did so will pass on this one.
Hamilton/Smith - Andy shocked me by winning against Whitlock with no real trouble, although if Whitlock could have hit straight fifteen dart legs he wins 6-0. Smith appeared red hot against de Decker and comes in as nearly an 80% favourite. This seems perfectly fine, although the lack of data on Hamilton is a concern. Probably one to put in an acca if you want to shove one on for a laugh, but I'm not going to bet this.
van der Voort/Cullen - This is surprisingly even, can we bet Vincent for a third time and print money for a third time? Cullen was really, really good today - the only bad leg he had was the sixth, otherwise he rolled Pipe looking great in the process. Vincent showed some great clutch play to get the break in the deciding leg against Benito. The line looks real close to historical numbers, so I'll not bet on yet another game.
Hudson/Norris - Hudson really should be out, Kim should have closed out from 5-2, and then when Peter shanked that second dart terribly on 89 for the game, my god. Oh well, he's here, and he's against Norris, who allowed Kantele to break him twice in seven visits early before getting his act together. On historic numbers and pure skill, Norris is a value bet at the odds we're given, but he's looked so shaky in so many places I'm not sure I can go as hard as I like, but I can't pass these odds completely - 0.5u Norris 8/13
van Gerwen/King - Mervyn was really hot and cold against North, missing a nine but needing seven visits to win half his legs. Michael was standard but didn't really need to get out of top gear, only throwing in the one twelve dart leg to ice the match. van Gerwen is a huge favourite and I think it's incredibly close to being an accurate line, ignoring that King was a bit shaky and inconsistent today. No bet again.
Suljovic/Gurney - Gurney really didn't impress against Hendriks, only managing one leg in fifteen darts or less, which really won't hack it against Suljovic, then again, he only managed two, albeit one when it absolutely mattered, to get a twelve darter to break in leg 10, but even after that he should have been eliminated, van Duijvenbode couldn't finish in the eighteen darts he was given. The market has Mensur as a small favourite, my stats have Mensur as a bigger favourite but I don't think they quite account enough for Gurney's recent improvements in play (they go back as far as last September). A small punt looks OK though - 0.5u Suljovic 4/5
Chisnall/White - Chizzy completely crushed today with three twelve dart or better legs, easily the performance of the round. White got by with five out of six won legs in six visits, thus Chisnall is installed as a heavy favourite. The line looks as if it should be marginal White value on historic form, but given yesterday I'm fine ignoring it.
Bunting/Anderson - Bunting looked solid against Klaasen, 6-2 with four in fifteen and the others in eighteen, Anderson won by the same score with slightly worse legs, only getting the two in under fifteen against a far, far below par Wade. Bookies have Bunting a small favourite. My stats like Anderson again, much like yesterday's match, but I do wonder if he can pick the game up to his standard level after round 2's basically free win. He wasn't exactly on fire against Kist either. Will leave it alone.
Wright/Reyes - Wright is a big, big favourite here, after Reyes dodged some bullets against Nathan Aspinall who was probably the better player but couldn't get over the line from a 4-3 lead. Reyes as a tiny punt would look OK if he played decently in his opening game, but I don't think he did so will pass on this one.
Hamilton/Smith - Andy shocked me by winning against Whitlock with no real trouble, although if Whitlock could have hit straight fifteen dart legs he wins 6-0. Smith appeared red hot against de Decker and comes in as nearly an 80% favourite. This seems perfectly fine, although the lack of data on Hamilton is a concern. Probably one to put in an acca if you want to shove one on for a laugh, but I'm not going to bet this.
van der Voort/Cullen - This is surprisingly even, can we bet Vincent for a third time and print money for a third time? Cullen was really, really good today - the only bad leg he had was the sixth, otherwise he rolled Pipe looking great in the process. Vincent showed some great clutch play to get the break in the deciding leg against Benito. The line looks real close to historical numbers, so I'll not bet on yet another game.
Hudson/Norris - Hudson really should be out, Kim should have closed out from 5-2, and then when Peter shanked that second dart terribly on 89 for the game, my god. Oh well, he's here, and he's against Norris, who allowed Kantele to break him twice in seven visits early before getting his act together. On historic numbers and pure skill, Norris is a value bet at the odds we're given, but he's looked so shaky in so many places I'm not sure I can go as hard as I like, but I can't pass these odds completely - 0.5u Norris 8/13
van Gerwen/King - Mervyn was really hot and cold against North, missing a nine but needing seven visits to win half his legs. Michael was standard but didn't really need to get out of top gear, only throwing in the one twelve dart leg to ice the match. van Gerwen is a huge favourite and I think it's incredibly close to being an accurate line, ignoring that King was a bit shaky and inconsistent today. No bet again.
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