Another 25 grand for Michael van Gerwen, as Rob Cross reaches a first European final, continuing his incredible first professional season. Before I give out awards, I'm up for the weekend, but not even a quarter of a unit, van der Voort really should have made it home throwing at 4-1, can't really complain about the positions most of my lost bets got into.
Best player performance: Rob Cross absolutely killed it this weekend. Getting six twelve darters out of 27 legs won, and another eighteen in fifteen darts or less, is quite the solid scoring. Averaged a cool 96 when losing legs as well. Truly elite stuff. Worthy of mention is van Gerwen obviously, some of the Dutch lads did better than expected.
Best single match performance: Michael van Gerwen in the final. Three twelve darters, was waiting on a double in two of the three legs he lost (one having missed a dart at 14's for another twelve) and 25 in the other having missed bull for yet another twelve darter. Amazing stuff, and absolutely needed to handle Cross in this form. Darren Webster came very close to this, with identical winning legs to van Gerwen, although that was in round one. Kyle Anderson against Kim Huybrechts wasn't bad either.
Worst player performance: Most of the seeds got through so this is somewhat limited, Alan Norris probably takes it for his 75 average in going out 6-3 to Darren Webster. Wright and Chisnall both went out by fairly large scores, but weren't playing bad, Norris was. A mention to Richard North as well, while he was never beating van Gerwen, he never even threatened to get close and would have been 9-0 down to 15 Dart Bot in the opener as well.
Worst single match performance: Kyle Anderson was very disappointing against Jelle Klaasen, Max Hopp was gifted a great draw and didn't do it yet again, Andrew Gilding really struggled against Vincent van der Voort. Will give it to Anderson, if only because it was off the back of two fantastic performances to get there - that loss came out of nowhere.
New adjusted FRH rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Phil Taylor
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Daryl Gurney
7 Mensur Suljovic
8 Michael Smith (UP 1)
9 James Wade (DOWN 1)
10 Raymond van Barneveld
11 Simon Whitlock
12 Alan Norris (UP 1)
13 Ian White (UP 1)
14 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 2)
15 Jelle Klaasen
16 Benito van de Pas (UP 1)
17 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 1)
18 Gerwyn Price
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Lower down, Rob Cross gains just the one place over Grand Prix make up the numbers merchant Robert Thornton (Taylor's confirmed out, who just has the one competitive event left before the worlds in the Grand Slam), while van der Voort gains no places but has closed a bit of a gap to a clump of people from 31st to 35th.
The Grand Prix seeds make interesting reading - if they all win through we'd have van Gerwen/van Barneveld, Anderson/Smith, Wright/Suljovic and Lewis/Chisnall. The first two have their own tales told for them, while the Wright game features two of the most solid players on the circuit who'll not throw too much bad stuff, while Lewis/Chisnall could be explosive or they could each need three visits to kick off.
Elsewhere, Wayne Jones and Mark Dudbridge have regained tour cards for next year following the end of the Challenge Tour, while the remainder of the top 8 who get free Q-School slots is a right mix of young and old names, with Tabern, Frost, McDine contrasting with Peter Jacques, Luke Humphries and Aaron Dyer.
Next week sees the Champions League exhibition which is only useful for a Taylor form check, before we return to European action in Riesa (as mentioned previously, coverage will be limited to non-existent as I'm at the event on the Sunday and in Germany the whole time) then the Grand Prix kicks off the following week. In terms of the Grand Prix, I've seen an interesting table that Chris Kempf (@ochepedia on Twitter) has made of season-long doubling percentages. Of the qualifiers, it reads (in this order) White, van Gerwen, Reyes, Wright, van de Pas, G Anderson, Cullen, Beaton, Whitlock, King, Henderson, van Barneveld, Lewis, Suljovic, Gurney, Wade, Klaasen, Chisnall, K Anderson, K Huybrechts, West, Smith, Cross, Kist, Webster, R Huybrechts, Price, Bunting, Norris, Thornton, Pipe (Richard North lacking enough stage attempts to feature). These figures swing from 44% at the top end (equating to 82.5% chance of getting away in your first visit) to 26% at the bottom end (or just a 60% chance of getting away in the first visit). I'm not going to bet hard on the event, as it's super high variance, the formats are surprisingly short and I've historically done badly, but having this order will be somewhat useful in terms of tweaking things once the draw is out. Not that I'd be rushing to bet the bottom of the list, but some of those higher up are a bit surprising and may swing no bets to small punts.
Monday, 11 September 2017
Sunday, 10 September 2017
Mannheim final session
Much like yesterday, particularly in the evening session, there were a few one-sided affairs in the last 16, but our quarter final lineup is set, and here's what I make of it:
Ian White - Rob Cross: Cross has been one of the standout performers so far this weekend, only dropping five legs and checking out eleven out of twelve legs in under fifteen darts, three of which were twelve darters all coming at crucial times to ice each of his matches, but White also hit a critical twelve darter in his win over Daryl Gurney in the deciding leg. He's been steadier and very solid, the master computer is reckoning White takes this 31% of the time, Cross 42% of the time with the remainders being deciding legs - Cross on the betting markets is slightly better than a 60-40 favourite so that line looks plum, no bets here. Should be tight, think Cross just nicks it.
Benito van de Pas - Vincent van der Voort: van de Pas didn't need to do too much against Jamie Caven, the only legs he lost were twelve darters from nowhere but in the rest Caven didn't really pressure, against Webster he stepped it up somewhat. van der Voort's had the extra game, easily beating Gilding with just one fifteen darter, winning from a lost position against King with a good last five legs, and earlier he whitewashed Ronny Huybrechts, although he only had the two legs in under fifteen darts, the final leg being a twelve when the match was done. The odds have Benito as a favourite, but I have van der Voort having a slight edge instead. This is over a year's worth of data - recent form would make you think that Benito's not playing so well while Vincent's back seems fine and he's getting better. I think it's worth a small play - 0.25u van der Voort 5/4.
Simon Whitlock - Michael Smith: The only game where the top seeds in their sections meet, Whitlock had no trouble against Daniel Larsson, he played better against Aspinall today, with a clean run of four fifteen dart legs to pull ahead enough to clinch the game. Smith survived a scare against Jamie Lewis where every leg went with throw, and took advantage of Joe Cullen having an off day, playing alright after the first comedy leg to claim a 3-1 lead, then didn't need any fifteen darters to grab the last three. Smith's installed as a small favourite, while my stats have it as a coinflip, maybe with Whitlock having the slight edge. This could go the distance, perhaps even to a decider, I'm just not feeling Whitlock's form quite enough to warrant a bet.
Michael van Gerwen - Jelle Klaasen: van Gerwen's lost just two legs so far, it could have been more but Price let van Gerwen break him in six visits twice, if he cleans those up as he should (he had six clear darts at double in the two combined) it's 4-4 and he has the throw and anything can happen. Jelle stuffed Kyle Anderson 6-1 earlier but didn't have to play well to do it, don't know what was up with Anderson today because, while I didn't watch the game, his numbers against Kim Huybrechts were great, and Klaasen got through a tricky opener against Jamie Bain in a topsy turvy game where if either player was able to put a run together of holds in fifteen darts they claim it easy. van Gerwen is obviously a huge favourite, and the line looks to be set just about right where we can't print money by betting the favourite, or go micro and hope for the upset.
Still yet to hear anything official in relation to Taylor playing Dublin (I think the scenario right now is it's either him or Thornton that plays as a result of his decision, enough money's been made by those near the Pro Tour cutoff that Thornton can't now back door his way in), meanwhile elsewhere the BDO are having a decent sized event as they build up to the World Masters, and I should also mention Paul Hogan won that Red Dragon sponsored Champion of Champions event, such a shame that he's not interested in punting at the PDC circuit.
Doubt I post anything before the semis/final, the only game that would be of real betting interest would be the first semi final assuming van Gerwen doesn't get upset, NFL's on which'll distract my attention on Sunday evenings.
Ian White - Rob Cross: Cross has been one of the standout performers so far this weekend, only dropping five legs and checking out eleven out of twelve legs in under fifteen darts, three of which were twelve darters all coming at crucial times to ice each of his matches, but White also hit a critical twelve darter in his win over Daryl Gurney in the deciding leg. He's been steadier and very solid, the master computer is reckoning White takes this 31% of the time, Cross 42% of the time with the remainders being deciding legs - Cross on the betting markets is slightly better than a 60-40 favourite so that line looks plum, no bets here. Should be tight, think Cross just nicks it.
Benito van de Pas - Vincent van der Voort: van de Pas didn't need to do too much against Jamie Caven, the only legs he lost were twelve darters from nowhere but in the rest Caven didn't really pressure, against Webster he stepped it up somewhat. van der Voort's had the extra game, easily beating Gilding with just one fifteen darter, winning from a lost position against King with a good last five legs, and earlier he whitewashed Ronny Huybrechts, although he only had the two legs in under fifteen darts, the final leg being a twelve when the match was done. The odds have Benito as a favourite, but I have van der Voort having a slight edge instead. This is over a year's worth of data - recent form would make you think that Benito's not playing so well while Vincent's back seems fine and he's getting better. I think it's worth a small play - 0.25u van der Voort 5/4.
Simon Whitlock - Michael Smith: The only game where the top seeds in their sections meet, Whitlock had no trouble against Daniel Larsson, he played better against Aspinall today, with a clean run of four fifteen dart legs to pull ahead enough to clinch the game. Smith survived a scare against Jamie Lewis where every leg went with throw, and took advantage of Joe Cullen having an off day, playing alright after the first comedy leg to claim a 3-1 lead, then didn't need any fifteen darters to grab the last three. Smith's installed as a small favourite, while my stats have it as a coinflip, maybe with Whitlock having the slight edge. This could go the distance, perhaps even to a decider, I'm just not feeling Whitlock's form quite enough to warrant a bet.
Michael van Gerwen - Jelle Klaasen: van Gerwen's lost just two legs so far, it could have been more but Price let van Gerwen break him in six visits twice, if he cleans those up as he should (he had six clear darts at double in the two combined) it's 4-4 and he has the throw and anything can happen. Jelle stuffed Kyle Anderson 6-1 earlier but didn't have to play well to do it, don't know what was up with Anderson today because, while I didn't watch the game, his numbers against Kim Huybrechts were great, and Klaasen got through a tricky opener against Jamie Bain in a topsy turvy game where if either player was able to put a run together of holds in fifteen darts they claim it easy. van Gerwen is obviously a huge favourite, and the line looks to be set just about right where we can't print money by betting the favourite, or go micro and hope for the upset.
Still yet to hear anything official in relation to Taylor playing Dublin (I think the scenario right now is it's either him or Thornton that plays as a result of his decision, enough money's been made by those near the Pro Tour cutoff that Thornton can't now back door his way in), meanwhile elsewhere the BDO are having a decent sized event as they build up to the World Masters, and I should also mention Paul Hogan won that Red Dragon sponsored Champion of Champions event, such a shame that he's not interested in punting at the PDC circuit.
Doubt I post anything before the semis/final, the only game that would be of real betting interest would be the first semi final assuming van Gerwen doesn't get upset, NFL's on which'll distract my attention on Sunday evenings.
Mannheim final day
Some brief bets:
0.25u White 9/4 vs Gurney, this seems like a big overreaction to Gurney's recent form. White hasn't been playing at his peak, but was very good yesterday and thinking that he can grab this one times in three isn't a ridiculous statement.
0.5u Webster evs vs van de Pas, this is a simple form bet, Webster was great on Friday, and while he'll not need to miss a trillion doubles as he was allowed to vs Norris yesterday, Benito didn't do enough against Caven to make me think that he's back at the level where he wins this half the time.
Aspinall seems close but his price is a lot closer than yesterday where it seemed obvious to bet him, so I won't, the Huybrechts/van der Voort game seems very interesting but I don't know what to make of it. Real shame King managed to throw it away to deny a double, from 5-2 he should take it, but Vincent held in 12 which you're not beating, managed to take out 124 on the bull with King waiting on 32, missed a dart for another hold in 12 and cleaned up next visit, then King inexplicably missed three match darts in the decider. Oh well, still up for the day.
0.25u White 9/4 vs Gurney, this seems like a big overreaction to Gurney's recent form. White hasn't been playing at his peak, but was very good yesterday and thinking that he can grab this one times in three isn't a ridiculous statement.
0.5u Webster evs vs van de Pas, this is a simple form bet, Webster was great on Friday, and while he'll not need to miss a trillion doubles as he was allowed to vs Norris yesterday, Benito didn't do enough against Caven to make me think that he's back at the level where he wins this half the time.
Aspinall seems close but his price is a lot closer than yesterday where it seemed obvious to bet him, so I won't, the Huybrechts/van der Voort game seems very interesting but I don't know what to make of it. Real shame King managed to throw it away to deny a double, from 5-2 he should take it, but Vincent held in 12 which you're not beating, managed to take out 124 on the bull with King waiting on 32, missed a dart for another hold in 12 and cleaned up next visit, then King inexplicably missed three match darts in the decider. Oh well, still up for the day.
Saturday, 9 September 2017
Mannheim day 1 recap, day 2 thoughts
Very quick as I'm off to football in 15 minutes:
- For the love of god Hopp, after sun running with the draw and getting Caven (PDC Europe Facebook obviously posted the draw wrong, contradicting my previous post), he lets Caven win five legs in six visits? You're better than this Max.
- Must be nice to be Mick McGowan, being in the high 200's with Schindler on a finish after botching a nine darter, throwing fifty-something or there abouts, then next visit hearing "Mick you require 144". Now maybe Schindler might not be paying attention to McGowan's score, but surely a combination of McGowan, Noble (I think he was ref) and the scorer have got to think for a second "wait, Mick required two trebles to leave a finish, hit no trebles, how is he on a finish?"
- Webster looked really, really good, three straight twelve dart legs, then breaking in fifteen in a decider after Meikle broke him to force it. He's got to fancy his chances against Norris today.
- Taylor might not be playing Dublin. That'd be an interesting one which throws all sorts of spanners into the works, primarily helping Ronny Huybrechts if true.
- Jamie Lewis/Andy Boulton was a surprisingly good quality game, particularly in the later stages, worth a watch back if you have the time. Similarly with Ratajski/Owen but I think most people would have called that one as being quality.
- Andrew Gilding really is struggling, Vincent didn't need to do much at all to cruise to a 6-2 victory.
For today, two bets I like:
0.25u Aspinall 7/2 vs Chisnall - Nathan looked good against Roith yesterday, and Chizzy's had a bit of a break so may be a bit rusty, seems worth the shot.
0.5u King 19/25 vs van der Voort - King's been playing well the last few months, and I don't think Vincent was really tested yesterday, or has been playing to the standard where King doesn't beat the line.
- For the love of god Hopp, after sun running with the draw and getting Caven (PDC Europe Facebook obviously posted the draw wrong, contradicting my previous post), he lets Caven win five legs in six visits? You're better than this Max.
- Must be nice to be Mick McGowan, being in the high 200's with Schindler on a finish after botching a nine darter, throwing fifty-something or there abouts, then next visit hearing "Mick you require 144". Now maybe Schindler might not be paying attention to McGowan's score, but surely a combination of McGowan, Noble (I think he was ref) and the scorer have got to think for a second "wait, Mick required two trebles to leave a finish, hit no trebles, how is he on a finish?"
- Webster looked really, really good, three straight twelve dart legs, then breaking in fifteen in a decider after Meikle broke him to force it. He's got to fancy his chances against Norris today.
- Taylor might not be playing Dublin. That'd be an interesting one which throws all sorts of spanners into the works, primarily helping Ronny Huybrechts if true.
- Jamie Lewis/Andy Boulton was a surprisingly good quality game, particularly in the later stages, worth a watch back if you have the time. Similarly with Ratajski/Owen but I think most people would have called that one as being quality.
- Andrew Gilding really is struggling, Vincent didn't need to do much at all to cruise to a 6-2 victory.
For today, two bets I like:
0.25u Aspinall 7/2 vs Chisnall - Nathan looked good against Roith yesterday, and Chizzy's had a bit of a break so may be a bit rusty, seems worth the shot.
0.5u King 19/25 vs van der Voort - King's been playing well the last few months, and I don't think Vincent was really tested yesterday, or has been playing to the standard where King doesn't beat the line.
Thursday, 7 September 2017
Five things to watch for in Mannheim
The draw is out, and while at this stage I have no news on the German domestic qualifier, there's a few things to watch out for:
1) Can Ronny Huybrechts reach Dublin?
This is going to be a tough one - he needs to reach the last 16 as a minimum (to overcome Richard North, who's ahead on countback - if North beats Mick Todd he'll need a quarter final, if North beats Mick Todd and then Michael van Gerwen then tear up everything), and while Zoran Lerchbacher isn't the hardest draw he could get, it certainly won't be an easy game, and then he'd run into Peter Wright in round two. He's also right on the borderline for making Hasselt, so at least getting the first round win is very important for the Belgian's ranking.
2) Will Robert Thornton survive as a Dublin seed? Or player full stop?
Alan Norris and Simon Whitlock need one win between them to nudge him down to the Pro Tour qualification spots - Norris has a potential banana skin against Darren Webster or Ryan Meikle, whoever it is and especially how he's been playing on the Euro Tour this year, while Whitlock faces either a home nation qualifier or Daniel Larsson, he who whitewashed Justin Pipe earlier this year. You'd think Whitlock should win at least, so it's then down to the Pro Tour race - Thornton is done at £30,500, and the most likely way he goes out is if Richard North wins one game and Ronny Huybrechts wins two. He should be fine.
3) Will the commentators mention Mannheim's ridiculous road naming system?
Seriously, go onto Google Maps right now. I stayed a night there while watching Kaiserslautern last year and it's a huge mess.
4) Can the domestic qualifiers do anything?
As mentioned above, one faces Daniel Larsson, which is feasible, another has a great draw in Jamie Caven, then Benito van de Pas followed by the winner of the aforementioned Norris section, one has Mick McGowan which might be on, but would then face Mensur, and the final one has an in-form Nathan Aspinall into Dave Chisnall combination which'll be the toughest of the lot in my opinion. The easy section is, if PDC Europe's draw that was posted literally minutes ago corresponds with the qualifier numbering, the section that Schindler would head in to, so their best player right now (sorry Max, do something) getting the best opportunity is interesting.
5) Last week's quarter finalists clash!
Ratajski's facing Owen in round one in an amusing draw, both would have to fancy both this and Gerwyn Price in the second round. Ratajski's closing in on the worlds which would likely secure him a tour card, and every penny here counts as he's only in one more event that counts to the Pro Tour rankings, while Owen is looking to gain ground on the top 32 in the Euro Tour rankings for Hasselt qualification.
May be some bets later when odds get out, can't see anything yet and obviously four matches are yet to be
1) Can Ronny Huybrechts reach Dublin?
This is going to be a tough one - he needs to reach the last 16 as a minimum (to overcome Richard North, who's ahead on countback - if North beats Mick Todd he'll need a quarter final, if North beats Mick Todd and then Michael van Gerwen then tear up everything), and while Zoran Lerchbacher isn't the hardest draw he could get, it certainly won't be an easy game, and then he'd run into Peter Wright in round two. He's also right on the borderline for making Hasselt, so at least getting the first round win is very important for the Belgian's ranking.
2) Will Robert Thornton survive as a Dublin seed? Or player full stop?
Alan Norris and Simon Whitlock need one win between them to nudge him down to the Pro Tour qualification spots - Norris has a potential banana skin against Darren Webster or Ryan Meikle, whoever it is and especially how he's been playing on the Euro Tour this year, while Whitlock faces either a home nation qualifier or Daniel Larsson, he who whitewashed Justin Pipe earlier this year. You'd think Whitlock should win at least, so it's then down to the Pro Tour race - Thornton is done at £30,500, and the most likely way he goes out is if Richard North wins one game and Ronny Huybrechts wins two. He should be fine.
3) Will the commentators mention Mannheim's ridiculous road naming system?
Seriously, go onto Google Maps right now. I stayed a night there while watching Kaiserslautern last year and it's a huge mess.
4) Can the domestic qualifiers do anything?
As mentioned above, one faces Daniel Larsson, which is feasible, another has a great draw in Jamie Caven, then Benito van de Pas followed by the winner of the aforementioned Norris section, one has Mick McGowan which might be on, but would then face Mensur, and the final one has an in-form Nathan Aspinall into Dave Chisnall combination which'll be the toughest of the lot in my opinion. The easy section is, if PDC Europe's draw that was posted literally minutes ago corresponds with the qualifier numbering, the section that Schindler would head in to, so their best player right now (sorry Max, do something) getting the best opportunity is interesting.
5) Last week's quarter finalists clash!
Ratajski's facing Owen in round one in an amusing draw, both would have to fancy both this and Gerwyn Price in the second round. Ratajski's closing in on the worlds which would likely secure him a tour card, and every penny here counts as he's only in one more event that counts to the Pro Tour rankings, while Owen is looking to gain ground on the top 32 in the Euro Tour rankings for Hasselt qualification.
May be some bets later when odds get out, can't see anything yet and obviously four matches are yet to be
Monday, 4 September 2017
Maastricht aftermath
Michael van Gerwen claimed yet another title, but what awards shall I give?
Best player performance: A lot of good contenders here. van Gerwen was in pretty hot form, nailing 23/30 won legs in fifteen darts, Robert Owen and Krzysztof Ratajski had great runs, but I'm giving it to Steve Beaton for his final run. After grinding out the first two rounds, his Sunday was very good, ending close to a ton average against Schindler, then slotting in 10/12 legs against Henderson and Wright in fifteen darts or less, averaging three figures in both games. van Gerwen would be a game too far, but this result will solidify Beaton's position in a lot of rankings for the next twelve months.
Best single match performance: Beaton's semi final with three twelve dart legs is up there, Whitlock against West, Aspinall against van de Pas and van Gerwen against Gurney were all very high quality, while Kyle Anderson blitzed Justin Pipe in the performance of the opening day, but it has to go to Ratajski against Kist - as mentioned previously, nobody apart from van Gerwen has managed to win every leg on the European Tour this year in under fifteen darts while getting three twelve darters at the same time, an incredibly impressive feat.
Worst player performance: Benito van de Pas was very disappointing, only getting one leg against Nathan Aspinall and averaging under 90. He'd have needed to be on point to have beaten Aspinall as he played, but he never gave himself a chance.
Worst single match performance: Jamie Bain wasn't able to win a single leg, which is surprising given that Owen only got one leg in less than fifteen darts, an 84 average isn't great and I'd have thought on most days Bain beats the performance that Owen does - and who knows from there whether Bain would have been able to take advantage as Owen did?
Gained a fifth of a unit on the betting, basically purely down to getting Owen/Whitlock right. I'd transposed the stats in the career to date by accident on the right, so it was showing about half a unit better off than it should have been, this is now corrected.
New adjusted FRH rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Phil Taylor
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
7 Mensur Suljovic (DOWN 1)
8 James Wade
9 Michael Smith (UP 1)
10 Raymond van Barneveld (DOWN 1)
11 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
12 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 1)
13 Alan Norris
14 Ian White (UP 2)
15 Jelle Klaasen (DOWN 1)
16 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 1)
17 Benito van de Pas
18 Gerwyn Price
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Of this weekend's competitors, Beaton climbs up to #23, Kyle Anderson climbs to #25, knocking Robert Thornton out, Kist and Henderson solidify spots in the top 35, Mike de Decker moves into the top 70, Martin Schindler is less than £500 outside the same, Ratajski and Aspinall move inside the top 80, while Robert Owen is just outside the top 90. Mannheim has become very interesting - it's the last event before the Grand Prix, and Robert Thornton is in some danger, but North and Huybrechts both losing opening round here has given him a slight bit of breathing room, and it's probably a case of if Ronny Huybrechts can make a last 16 run, which is the minimum he'd need to qualify with the way results have worked out. We're also now three quarters done with European Championship qualification, for which there's a very close battle for seedings which those who have a bye to the second round are involved in - only three grand separates Joe Cullen in sixth and Dave Chisnall in eleventh. It's also very tight for qualification as a whole, eight grand is currently enough, but James Richardson in 26th and Jonny Clayton in 38th are separated by just two grand. And, of course, this all counts towards qualification for the worlds, and the race for the Pro Tour spots is incredibly tight.
Best player performance: A lot of good contenders here. van Gerwen was in pretty hot form, nailing 23/30 won legs in fifteen darts, Robert Owen and Krzysztof Ratajski had great runs, but I'm giving it to Steve Beaton for his final run. After grinding out the first two rounds, his Sunday was very good, ending close to a ton average against Schindler, then slotting in 10/12 legs against Henderson and Wright in fifteen darts or less, averaging three figures in both games. van Gerwen would be a game too far, but this result will solidify Beaton's position in a lot of rankings for the next twelve months.
Best single match performance: Beaton's semi final with three twelve dart legs is up there, Whitlock against West, Aspinall against van de Pas and van Gerwen against Gurney were all very high quality, while Kyle Anderson blitzed Justin Pipe in the performance of the opening day, but it has to go to Ratajski against Kist - as mentioned previously, nobody apart from van Gerwen has managed to win every leg on the European Tour this year in under fifteen darts while getting three twelve darters at the same time, an incredibly impressive feat.
Worst player performance: Benito van de Pas was very disappointing, only getting one leg against Nathan Aspinall and averaging under 90. He'd have needed to be on point to have beaten Aspinall as he played, but he never gave himself a chance.
Worst single match performance: Jamie Bain wasn't able to win a single leg, which is surprising given that Owen only got one leg in less than fifteen darts, an 84 average isn't great and I'd have thought on most days Bain beats the performance that Owen does - and who knows from there whether Bain would have been able to take advantage as Owen did?
Gained a fifth of a unit on the betting, basically purely down to getting Owen/Whitlock right. I'd transposed the stats in the career to date by accident on the right, so it was showing about half a unit better off than it should have been, this is now corrected.
New adjusted FRH rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Phil Taylor
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
7 Mensur Suljovic (DOWN 1)
8 James Wade
9 Michael Smith (UP 1)
10 Raymond van Barneveld (DOWN 1)
11 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
12 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 1)
13 Alan Norris
14 Ian White (UP 2)
15 Jelle Klaasen (DOWN 1)
16 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 1)
17 Benito van de Pas
18 Gerwyn Price
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Of this weekend's competitors, Beaton climbs up to #23, Kyle Anderson climbs to #25, knocking Robert Thornton out, Kist and Henderson solidify spots in the top 35, Mike de Decker moves into the top 70, Martin Schindler is less than £500 outside the same, Ratajski and Aspinall move inside the top 80, while Robert Owen is just outside the top 90. Mannheim has become very interesting - it's the last event before the Grand Prix, and Robert Thornton is in some danger, but North and Huybrechts both losing opening round here has given him a slight bit of breathing room, and it's probably a case of if Ronny Huybrechts can make a last 16 run, which is the minimum he'd need to qualify with the way results have worked out. We're also now three quarters done with European Championship qualification, for which there's a very close battle for seedings which those who have a bye to the second round are involved in - only three grand separates Joe Cullen in sixth and Dave Chisnall in eleventh. It's also very tight for qualification as a whole, eight grand is currently enough, but James Richardson in 26th and Jonny Clayton in 38th are separated by just two grand. And, of course, this all counts towards qualification for the worlds, and the race for the Pro Tour spots is incredibly tight.
Sunday, 3 September 2017
Maastricht final session
Nice to have a long shot hit to cover other losses
Michael van Gerwen v Daryl Gurney - Gurney's 5/1 which would ordinarily be a Gurney bet against anyone in the world, van Gerwen included, but Gurney's not really looked at it so far - only two legs won in under fifteen darts against Aspinall, and only four out of six against West in the second round. He has hit two twelve darters across those two games, but will need more of those against van Gerwen, who steamrollered Anderson. He wasn't great against Jeffrey de Zwaan, and I think it'll need van Gerwen to revert to that game and Gurney to step it up, which could happen, but it seems rare.
Michael Smith v Robert Owen - Owen's now properly in uncharted territory, and has little to lose here. Statistically he's not been great, with only six out of eighteen won legs in fifteen darts or less, but that has improved round by round. Smith won five straight against Cullen to get here, but hasn't been in top gear really - he should come through, but with a line at around 80/20 I'm not enthused to bet either side.
Peter Wright v Krzysztof Ratajski - Ratajski became only the second player all season on the European Tour to hit three twelve darters and not need more than fifteen darts in any other leg (van Gerwen v Reyes in Jena), and if he plays like that and Wright continues to be mediocre, the Pole wins. Given he also managed 5/6 in fifteen darts against Lennon, it's no fluke (only the two against Klaasen mind you), while Wright has been rank average - only one leg in under fifteen darts against Jim Walker, and just the three earlier against Cross, whose game seemed off. Seems like an alright underdog punt at the price - 0.25u Ratajski 18/5.
John Henderson v Steve Beaton - Henderson won the last five legs to pull away from Mike de Decker, while Beaton was involved in a close one against Martin Schindler, while the oddsmakers put this close to evens, Beaton just having the tiniest of edges. It's not one I want to rush to bet, if there is value I think it'd be on Hendo, who also has the slight edge in the metrics I monitor, it's not quite enough to bet on one that could come down to who wins the bull.
Michael van Gerwen v Daryl Gurney - Gurney's 5/1 which would ordinarily be a Gurney bet against anyone in the world, van Gerwen included, but Gurney's not really looked at it so far - only two legs won in under fifteen darts against Aspinall, and only four out of six against West in the second round. He has hit two twelve darters across those two games, but will need more of those against van Gerwen, who steamrollered Anderson. He wasn't great against Jeffrey de Zwaan, and I think it'll need van Gerwen to revert to that game and Gurney to step it up, which could happen, but it seems rare.
Michael Smith v Robert Owen - Owen's now properly in uncharted territory, and has little to lose here. Statistically he's not been great, with only six out of eighteen won legs in fifteen darts or less, but that has improved round by round. Smith won five straight against Cullen to get here, but hasn't been in top gear really - he should come through, but with a line at around 80/20 I'm not enthused to bet either side.
Peter Wright v Krzysztof Ratajski - Ratajski became only the second player all season on the European Tour to hit three twelve darters and not need more than fifteen darts in any other leg (van Gerwen v Reyes in Jena), and if he plays like that and Wright continues to be mediocre, the Pole wins. Given he also managed 5/6 in fifteen darts against Lennon, it's no fluke (only the two against Klaasen mind you), while Wright has been rank average - only one leg in under fifteen darts against Jim Walker, and just the three earlier against Cross, whose game seemed off. Seems like an alright underdog punt at the price - 0.25u Ratajski 18/5.
John Henderson v Steve Beaton - Henderson won the last five legs to pull away from Mike de Decker, while Beaton was involved in a close one against Martin Schindler, while the oddsmakers put this close to evens, Beaton just having the tiniest of edges. It's not one I want to rush to bet, if there is value I think it'd be on Hendo, who also has the slight edge in the metrics I monitor, it's not quite enough to bet on one that could come down to who wins the bull.
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