So this is it, the next two days will decide who will make the Players' Championship Finals, and in a large part decide who will make the World Championship, with just one European Tour event left to count towards the Pro Tour rankings. Let's take a look at who, in order of FBH rankings (who are in the top 64), is currently in the danger zone for qualification to Minehead - which I'll classify as being at under 10 grand in winnings in Players Championships this year, i.e. having less than £1,500 worth of cushion to play with (currently number 65 in the rankings is on £8,500), I'll ignore Phil as he's not playing the events:
#36 Chris Dobey - Currently on £9,500. Huge event for him as he's outside of the worlds cutoff right now, even counting the grand he will get from Göttingen.
#38 Terry Jenkins - On zero. He needs some money in the bank to try to edge ahead of James Wilson or John Henderson, both of whom are directly above him accounting for Burton's projections re: major qualification. Presently he's out of the worlds, it'll take some effort to get anything like safe for it.
#42 Dimitri van den Bergh - On £8,750 and the last man in as it stands. He seems to have been playing OK but really needs two cashes or to win his board one day to feel really comfortable. He is at least looking safe for the worlds based on European money.
#43 Max Hopp - On £3k, so way, way off the mark. With continued failures in Europe putting him well below the qualification point for anything, he's going to need a career best senior performance or risk missing out on everything. Should still be able to have a shot at Ally Pally through the German qualifier if worst comes to worst.
#44 Jamie Lewis - On £7k, so a board final or better plus a last 32 is probably going to be the minimum requirement. He's not made the last European event, so making the worlds will need a miracle at more than £3k below the cutoff.
#46 Jamie Caven - In even worse shape than his namesake on £6k. He is at least in Göttingen, but as this is only his second appearance in Europe, he's so far off worlds qualification that it'll be the PDPA qualifier or bust barring miracles (like, say, the one he had before the 2016 Matchplay).
#48 Josh Payne - Not too much to do, he's currently on £8,500, so a couple of cashes will likely be enough, likely too far off the worlds as like Caven he's not done anything in Europe, but in Riesa he at least showed signs of life so ought to make the last 64 for Minehead.
#49 Ron Meulenkamp - On £8k, so a bit trickier than Payne's ask, but like Payne he was showing form in Riesa, so this is certainly possible.
#50 Andrew Gilding - On £8,250, hit a little bit of form in Ireland so seems like a fair punt to sneak in. Isn't getting much help at all from Europe or UK Open qualifiers, so it'll be last chance saloon at the PDPA qualifier unless he miraculously returns to early 2015 form right now.
#52 Jeffrey de Graaf - Should be safe on £9,750 if he can win a game over the two days, two ought to be close to absolutely safe. Probably too much to do for Ally Pally at four grand under the cutoff and not being in Göttingen though.
#53 Rowby John Rodriguez - way down at £5k, and with little help from other Pro Tour events, is going to need to final something to make Minehead or win the whole thing to make the worlds.
#54 Joe Murnan - has had a quiet season but has picked up £8,500 over the course of the year to make him the last man out as of right now. He doesn't even get up to £12k on all Pro Tour winnings so would need to win the thing to make the worlds - but he's at least done that before, so that's something.
#55 Mick McGowan - on just four grand. Has made more in Europe and about half that in the UK Open qualifiers, so not getting it done on the bread and butter that is the UK circuit is costing him, and can't even rely on the Tom Kirby now.
#56 Devon Petersen - at £7.5k isn't too far off the mark, but unlike last season can't rely on Europe to push him into the main event at the end of the year. Far too many zeroes and £500's on his record, must improve this week or he's going nowhere.
#57 John Michael - only just outside right now on £8,500. Is a couple of grand below the worlds cutoff at present, so isn't completely out of things in terms of direct qualification rather than needing a regional qualifier.
#59 Ricky Evans - languishing on £5,500, and showing little form to indicate he can get close to making Minehead. Is in the final European Tour event, but he's barely in five figures for all Pro Tour events so can't really backdoor the worlds through that.
#60 Jan Dekker - currently safe on £9,500, decent work in Europe means he's also about the same above the cutoff for Ally Pally. Just picking up a couple of wins these next two days should make him safe for both, with Göttingen being a potential safety valve if results don't go his way.
#62 Dirk van Duijvenbode - at £7,250. Needs a board win as a minimum really, and needs to do that twice to have any chance of the worlds, being three grand below that cutoff as we speak.
#63 Dave Pallett - at £9,500 like Dekker, unlike Dekker he's not done enough elsewhere to be within touching distance of the worlds so is going to need the PDPA qualifier.
Thanks to Burton for posting up the at a glance guide to who's won what making this post a lot easier.
Monday, 9 October 2017
Saturday, 7 October 2017
World Grand Prix aftermath and other musings
Huge congrats to Daryl Gurney, claiming his first major title, and in fairness congrats to everyone that made the semi finals who can all be happy with their week's work - Simon Whitlock for coming so close to binking, making a first major final in quite some time, John Henderson for two tremendous upset victories, and Mensur Suljovic continuing to solidify a great autumn. Obviously given there were no posts since before the quarter finals I didn't see a great deal of value in the betting, probably should have shot on Suljovic over Wright but I won't be losing any sleep over it.
The result is that Gurney and Whitlock claim Grand Slam places, and it's getting a bit crowded with fourteen players now having spots through the various majors and other events that the PDC calls majors, meaning that once Michael Smith takes one of the remaining spots from his European Tour victory, there's only one slot left from the Pro Tour - currently allocated to Adrian Lewis, which is far too precarious a position to be in. It only takes someone like a Rob Cross, Joe Cullen etc to bink Göttingen (not that unrealistic a suggestion and are in the other half to MvG giving four people shots to take him out before they have to do it themselves), or someone going on a mad run and finalling Hasselt in order to knock him out of it.
BDO update - someone got back to me on email, which is nice, and the last 16 game that wasn't uploaded did get done in the end, although there's still no sign of anything beyond that. I would just grab it manually, it's only first to two leg sets so it wouldn't take that long, but I'm not sure I can be bothered with VPNing in order to manually scrape data that I'm not that likely to use to make bets given it's the BDO. They've also set their worlds field following their qualifiers, I don't know how effective their ranking system is given the quality of the non-seeds looks a fair bit better than the quality of the seeds, particularly the lower ones, I'd take Waites/Adams/Labanauskas/Noppert/Ratajski over Williams/Mandigers/Baetens/Phillips/Hurrell very, very quickly. Ratajski's going to have to make a decision soon, I think it'll depend on how he does at Göttingen, if he wins enough games to qualify for Ally Pally then that seems like a very easy decision, otherwise he's got to assess whether taking the European Championship money is worth it (and if that eliminates him from Lakeside which I assume it would).
Willie O'Connor won the Tom Kirby and thus makes the PDC worlds. I'd guess that he's got enough in the rankings that he gets straight to round 1, and could potentially be a danger to a few seeds. He's really hot and cold but seems to be having a decent enough season.
It's a busy and important week now, with the final Pro Tour events (Jenkins has at least entered these, but if Burton's figures are correct as they usually are, he definitely needs something as he's provisionally out as of right now) before the final European events, after those have finished we'll know the fields for two more majors and be able to work out World Championship permutations with a lot more certainty.
One thing I do want to do is to have a year end awards post, although I'm unsure on what categories to use. Here's what I have in mind as of right now:
- Player of the Year
- Most Improved Player of the Year
- Best Young Player (no real cutoff in mind for top age, am likely to consider everything as a whole and think that someone towards a sensible upper age would have to do more than someone who's barely started)
- Best New Tour Card Holder (not really thinking that best new player is a great category, as nobody's completely new nowadays)
- Best Tournament Win
- Most Disappointing Year
- Favourite Moment of the Year
I could add match of the year, but I'm reluctant to do so, as I could roll that up into the last category which is basically a personal favourite category anyway, and I don't watch extensively enough in order to really think of what to go for, whereas I have ideas for all of the other categories (which would include somewhere between 2-4 runners up for each one). Thoughts for categories that I could add?
New adjusted FRH rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Daryl Gurney (UP 3)
5 Mensur Suljovic
6 Phil Taylor (DOWN 2)
7 Simon Whitlock (UP 3)
8 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 2)
9 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
10 Raymond van Barneveld (UP 1)
11 James Wade (DOWN 2)
12 Benito van de Pas (UP 4)
13 Alan Norris
14 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 2)
15 Ian White (DOWN 1)
16 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
17 Jelle Klaasen (DOWN 2)
18 Adrian Lewis
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Henderson jumps to number 28 following his semi final, one place behind fellow Scot Robert Thornton. Out of second round players, Beaton climbs to number 24, Steve West enters the top 30 while Richard North is up to number 47. Gurney is less than 20 grand behind Gary Anderson for the number 3 spot - who knows what might happen with a good weekend?
The result is that Gurney and Whitlock claim Grand Slam places, and it's getting a bit crowded with fourteen players now having spots through the various majors and other events that the PDC calls majors, meaning that once Michael Smith takes one of the remaining spots from his European Tour victory, there's only one slot left from the Pro Tour - currently allocated to Adrian Lewis, which is far too precarious a position to be in. It only takes someone like a Rob Cross, Joe Cullen etc to bink Göttingen (not that unrealistic a suggestion and are in the other half to MvG giving four people shots to take him out before they have to do it themselves), or someone going on a mad run and finalling Hasselt in order to knock him out of it.
BDO update - someone got back to me on email, which is nice, and the last 16 game that wasn't uploaded did get done in the end, although there's still no sign of anything beyond that. I would just grab it manually, it's only first to two leg sets so it wouldn't take that long, but I'm not sure I can be bothered with VPNing in order to manually scrape data that I'm not that likely to use to make bets given it's the BDO. They've also set their worlds field following their qualifiers, I don't know how effective their ranking system is given the quality of the non-seeds looks a fair bit better than the quality of the seeds, particularly the lower ones, I'd take Waites/Adams/Labanauskas/Noppert/Ratajski over Williams/Mandigers/Baetens/Phillips/Hurrell very, very quickly. Ratajski's going to have to make a decision soon, I think it'll depend on how he does at Göttingen, if he wins enough games to qualify for Ally Pally then that seems like a very easy decision, otherwise he's got to assess whether taking the European Championship money is worth it (and if that eliminates him from Lakeside which I assume it would).
Willie O'Connor won the Tom Kirby and thus makes the PDC worlds. I'd guess that he's got enough in the rankings that he gets straight to round 1, and could potentially be a danger to a few seeds. He's really hot and cold but seems to be having a decent enough season.
It's a busy and important week now, with the final Pro Tour events (Jenkins has at least entered these, but if Burton's figures are correct as they usually are, he definitely needs something as he's provisionally out as of right now) before the final European events, after those have finished we'll know the fields for two more majors and be able to work out World Championship permutations with a lot more certainty.
One thing I do want to do is to have a year end awards post, although I'm unsure on what categories to use. Here's what I have in mind as of right now:
- Player of the Year
- Most Improved Player of the Year
- Best Young Player (no real cutoff in mind for top age, am likely to consider everything as a whole and think that someone towards a sensible upper age would have to do more than someone who's barely started)
- Best New Tour Card Holder (not really thinking that best new player is a great category, as nobody's completely new nowadays)
- Best Tournament Win
- Most Disappointing Year
- Favourite Moment of the Year
I could add match of the year, but I'm reluctant to do so, as I could roll that up into the last category which is basically a personal favourite category anyway, and I don't watch extensively enough in order to really think of what to go for, whereas I have ideas for all of the other categories (which would include somewhere between 2-4 runners up for each one). Thoughts for categories that I could add?
New adjusted FRH rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Daryl Gurney (UP 3)
5 Mensur Suljovic
6 Phil Taylor (DOWN 2)
7 Simon Whitlock (UP 3)
8 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 2)
9 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
10 Raymond van Barneveld (UP 1)
11 James Wade (DOWN 2)
12 Benito van de Pas (UP 4)
13 Alan Norris
14 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 2)
15 Ian White (DOWN 1)
16 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
17 Jelle Klaasen (DOWN 2)
18 Adrian Lewis
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Henderson jumps to number 28 following his semi final, one place behind fellow Scot Robert Thornton. Out of second round players, Beaton climbs to number 24, Steve West enters the top 30 while Richard North is up to number 47. Gurney is less than 20 grand behind Gary Anderson for the number 3 spot - who knows what might happen with a good weekend?
Wednesday, 4 October 2017
World Grand Prix quarter final preview
And then there were eight, while yesterday had a couple of well contested affairs (thanks for missing five match darts Chizzy), the latter half of that event and today as a whole was mostly one sided, so there should be plenty of people coming into this in form, in an event that's fairly wide open, let's have a quick look at the quarter final lineup - note that the percentage to win sets on throw is, again, based on the data I have on winning legs assuming a straight start, make your own adjustments to account for doubling in (stats again taken from ochepedia's Twitter page):
John Henderson (FRH ranked 28, 41.43% to win sets on throw, 38.87% doubling) v Raymond van Barneveld (10, 72.35%, 38.48%)
Lines in general, at least for the games that will be played in Wright's half, are somewhat tentative right now, so I won't list them in the headlines or place bets yet, they've got Barney at around a 75-80% favourite. This seems fair on historical data, Hendo's only going to win two sets in any given set of two less than 12% of the time, while Barney can do the same over 42% of the time, so it's going to require quite some parlay for Henderson to even force a decider against someone who's not dropped a set so far and is the highest (only) seed left in this half, although he was gifted a freebie by Beaton who was way off his game. The line looks like it'll be close enough to accurate to correctly account for Henderson's underdog chances, if you think that it's around half the time that each pair of two sets will be 1-1, then it's around a 25% chance of reaching 2-2 with Barney cleaning up far more often than Henderson will. Pressure should be off Henderson though, while Barney will have some expectation on him.
Daryl Gurney (6, 60.38%, 38.32%) v Robert Thornton (27, 53.07%, 31.82%)
This one, however, should be a good deal tighter. Thornton's on the freeroll of his life, given he shouldn't even have been here, and has dodged plenty of bullets - Huybrechts missing six darts to get in on throw in a deciding leg, while Chisnall missed five darts for the match. That aside, he's been playing some pretty solid stuff, possibly the best since this time two years ago, and we all saw what happened then. Gurney's quietly been getting business done on home soil and is around a 65-70% favourite in the markets. The figures listed make this seem a bit tighter, Gurney grabs a 2-0 lead 28% of the time to Thornton's 21%, but those don't account for doubling, and Gurney's figures across the year and general form across the year should more than compensate, early in the game he couldn't miss going in or out. I'd fancy Gurney to take this, but I think there's enough random stuff that can happen that I can't bet at the likely price offered, plus I don't recall having suggested a Gurney bet all year, so why start now?
Simon Whitlock (8, 67.12%, 37.70%) v Benito van de Pas (12, 48.36%, 39.90%)
Bookies have this close to even, so you'd think this'd be a Whitlock bet, but let's take a second - Benito was absolutely crushing it earlier today against Price, he couldn't do anything wrong, and was remarkably clutch against Reyes in the first round as well, getting the key outs when he needed to and holding it together in the deciding set. Whitlock had close to a free win in round two, with North still getting used to the stage and perhaps being a bit overawed by the occasion, and Whitlock needed to dodge a match dart then get a big kill to finish off Christian Kist in round one, so perhaps, for the first time in a while, Benito's the man in form coming into the game. It's the sort of statement game that Benito needs to win after a mediocre season, and he may be able to do it - about half the time perhaps?
Peter Wright (2, 61.42%, 40.71%) v Mensur Suljovic (5, 55.04%, 38.92%)
The two highest seeds left and the two highest players in the FRH rankings left, meet in a matchup that could easily be a final, and you would think will decide the finalist. Mensur's around the same sort of underdog as Thornton is, and the differential in set winning chances is around the same as in that match, although they're both higher than Gurney/Thornton on account of both being better players. The doubling stats are a lot closer though, Mensur was red hot in getting away for large parts of the match, and he needed to be in a second set where Steve West was hanging around quite well. Wright got past Mervyn King, but seemed to be indicating he had some sort of elbow issue, which I won't try to analyse but will keep in the back of my mind. Suljovic won last time out 10-8 in the BBC exbo he won, and also beat Wright in their only other TV matchup, 11-8 in the semis of last year's European Championship. Wright has been putting up good averages, but could easily have been dumped out round one, so I'm leaning towards a small Suljovic bet, all factors considered. I've only seen a preliminary price on one bookmaker site, so will edit in a bet once more lines are up if I decide to punt.
Has been moderately disappointing gambling wise so far, Chizzy ruining everything changing what would have been around 0.6 units made into the same lost, and I feel that Reyes and Lewis might have been able to take their chances better, but on balance it could be worse - Whitlock survived a match dart missed after all.
Still plenty of possibilities for people to rise up the FRH rankings - Suljovic is within two grand of Taylor for the number 4 spot, Barney can rise back to the top 8 with one win and good results elsewhere, Benito would get very close to the top 10 with a win while Thornton can jump four places if he overcomes Gurney, who could reach the top four himself if he reaches the final (and Suljovic doesn't). Obviously a six figure result will rocket anyone (apart from Wright, who's got nearly a 200 grand gap both above and below him) up the charts, Henderson would hit around twelfth if he produced the miracle result.
Keep an eye out for a possible Suljovic bet being edited in once I see the lines. It'd likely arrive some time around the start of the session if it did.
John Henderson (FRH ranked 28, 41.43% to win sets on throw, 38.87% doubling) v Raymond van Barneveld (10, 72.35%, 38.48%)
Lines in general, at least for the games that will be played in Wright's half, are somewhat tentative right now, so I won't list them in the headlines or place bets yet, they've got Barney at around a 75-80% favourite. This seems fair on historical data, Hendo's only going to win two sets in any given set of two less than 12% of the time, while Barney can do the same over 42% of the time, so it's going to require quite some parlay for Henderson to even force a decider against someone who's not dropped a set so far and is the highest (only) seed left in this half, although he was gifted a freebie by Beaton who was way off his game. The line looks like it'll be close enough to accurate to correctly account for Henderson's underdog chances, if you think that it's around half the time that each pair of two sets will be 1-1, then it's around a 25% chance of reaching 2-2 with Barney cleaning up far more often than Henderson will. Pressure should be off Henderson though, while Barney will have some expectation on him.
Daryl Gurney (6, 60.38%, 38.32%) v Robert Thornton (27, 53.07%, 31.82%)
This one, however, should be a good deal tighter. Thornton's on the freeroll of his life, given he shouldn't even have been here, and has dodged plenty of bullets - Huybrechts missing six darts to get in on throw in a deciding leg, while Chisnall missed five darts for the match. That aside, he's been playing some pretty solid stuff, possibly the best since this time two years ago, and we all saw what happened then. Gurney's quietly been getting business done on home soil and is around a 65-70% favourite in the markets. The figures listed make this seem a bit tighter, Gurney grabs a 2-0 lead 28% of the time to Thornton's 21%, but those don't account for doubling, and Gurney's figures across the year and general form across the year should more than compensate, early in the game he couldn't miss going in or out. I'd fancy Gurney to take this, but I think there's enough random stuff that can happen that I can't bet at the likely price offered, plus I don't recall having suggested a Gurney bet all year, so why start now?
Simon Whitlock (8, 67.12%, 37.70%) v Benito van de Pas (12, 48.36%, 39.90%)
Bookies have this close to even, so you'd think this'd be a Whitlock bet, but let's take a second - Benito was absolutely crushing it earlier today against Price, he couldn't do anything wrong, and was remarkably clutch against Reyes in the first round as well, getting the key outs when he needed to and holding it together in the deciding set. Whitlock had close to a free win in round two, with North still getting used to the stage and perhaps being a bit overawed by the occasion, and Whitlock needed to dodge a match dart then get a big kill to finish off Christian Kist in round one, so perhaps, for the first time in a while, Benito's the man in form coming into the game. It's the sort of statement game that Benito needs to win after a mediocre season, and he may be able to do it - about half the time perhaps?
Peter Wright (2, 61.42%, 40.71%) v Mensur Suljovic (5, 55.04%, 38.92%)
The two highest seeds left and the two highest players in the FRH rankings left, meet in a matchup that could easily be a final, and you would think will decide the finalist. Mensur's around the same sort of underdog as Thornton is, and the differential in set winning chances is around the same as in that match, although they're both higher than Gurney/Thornton on account of both being better players. The doubling stats are a lot closer though, Mensur was red hot in getting away for large parts of the match, and he needed to be in a second set where Steve West was hanging around quite well. Wright got past Mervyn King, but seemed to be indicating he had some sort of elbow issue, which I won't try to analyse but will keep in the back of my mind. Suljovic won last time out 10-8 in the BBC exbo he won, and also beat Wright in their only other TV matchup, 11-8 in the semis of last year's European Championship. Wright has been putting up good averages, but could easily have been dumped out round one, so I'm leaning towards a small Suljovic bet, all factors considered. I've only seen a preliminary price on one bookmaker site, so will edit in a bet once more lines are up if I decide to punt.
Has been moderately disappointing gambling wise so far, Chizzy ruining everything changing what would have been around 0.6 units made into the same lost, and I feel that Reyes and Lewis might have been able to take their chances better, but on balance it could be worse - Whitlock survived a match dart missed after all.
Still plenty of possibilities for people to rise up the FRH rankings - Suljovic is within two grand of Taylor for the number 4 spot, Barney can rise back to the top 8 with one win and good results elsewhere, Benito would get very close to the top 10 with a win while Thornton can jump four places if he overcomes Gurney, who could reach the top four himself if he reaches the final (and Suljovic doesn't). Obviously a six figure result will rocket anyone (apart from Wright, who's got nearly a 200 grand gap both above and below him) up the charts, Henderson would hit around twelfth if he produced the miracle result.
Keep an eye out for a possible Suljovic bet being edited in once I see the lines. It'd likely arrive some time around the start of the session if it did.
Tuesday, 3 October 2017
World Grand Prix round 2 - Seedocalpyse!
van Gerwen out! Anderson quit! Smith out! Lewis out! Wright avoids match darts! Crazy stuff, round two kicks off soon, thoughts on the matchups (figures in brackets indicate the chances, using the same methodology as round 1, of winning a set on throw - the + figure shows how many more percentage points they lead in doubling percentage per ochepedia's latest postings:
Chisnall (68.6, +6) v Thornton (44) - can't look past Chizzy here. Seemed to be the standout performance of round 1, and with things opening up as they have I think he'll take his chance to get through here - 1u Chisnall 1/3
Gurney (51) v Cullen (63.93, +2) - Gurney's the favourite? The stats don't seem to agree. Both came through tight games, will lean towards the same thinking of betting against Gurney as we did in round 1 - 0.5u Cullen 13/8
Henderson (58.4, +5) v Norris (56.6) - Norris dodged somewhat of a bullet in round one, with Pipe playing OK early before falling off under a barrage of 160's, Henderson we all know what he did, Henderson's got to have all the confidence in the world, seems to be in better form, and also seems to have the better stats, and is too large an underdog for my liking - 0.5u Henderson 19/10
van Barneveld (69.8) v Beaton (43.4, +1) - both came through 2-0 against in form players from the Pro Tour rankings, Barney's the same price favourite as Chisnall is, but here Beaton's a lot closer in terms of doubling and his form is that much better than Thornton's. Will pass.
Price (60.3) v van de Pas (54.89, +6) - Benito needed a 144 out after Reyes missed a dart for a 155 to get the critical first set, he wasn't too convincing, didn't see Price's game but 2-1 over Smith has to be OK, Price seems a touch better but may allow Benito some shots given Benito's better doubling, line is about even so won't bet.
Suljovic (73.6, +2) v West (38.3) - Suljovic is a very big favourite on the numbers but not quite so much on the odds, only being around the same price as Chizzy and Barney which I really don't understand. Seems an automatic bet given Mensur's red hot form - 1u Suljovic 4/11
North (21.3) v Whitlock (88.1, +6) - can take these numbers with a pinch of salt, North's very much learning the stage game and has yet to really bring his floor form to it, Whitlock's a favourite and should come through but I don't really have enough information on North to start firing Whitlock at large odds-on prices given he survived a match dart and needed a ton+ checkout to get here.
Wright (66.1, +3) v King (48.4) - Wright dodged a huge bullet from, er, the Bullet, who missed clear darts to win, Wright didn't seem too hot, King's been looking OK for quite a while now and we're being offered good odds on Mervyn, if I was to bet it'd be on King but Wright's been getting a knack of closing out tournaments when he is the favourite to do so, if you want to punt go ahead but I'll leave this one and stick with these four bets.
As an aside, I've scoured the BDO's website and can still only find the stats for the last 16 games, well seven of them, one of the links is broken. Have emailed to see if they'll post up the remaining information but have had no response as of yet, I'd like to cover them in more detail but they're not helping themselves by not coughing up the numbers (and I can't even look back at the stream and do it manually, as it's still region blocked on Youtube - live stream while it's on Eurosport, fine, now it's a VOD it seems daft).
Chisnall (68.6, +6) v Thornton (44) - can't look past Chizzy here. Seemed to be the standout performance of round 1, and with things opening up as they have I think he'll take his chance to get through here - 1u Chisnall 1/3
Gurney (51) v Cullen (63.93, +2) - Gurney's the favourite? The stats don't seem to agree. Both came through tight games, will lean towards the same thinking of betting against Gurney as we did in round 1 - 0.5u Cullen 13/8
Henderson (58.4, +5) v Norris (56.6) - Norris dodged somewhat of a bullet in round one, with Pipe playing OK early before falling off under a barrage of 160's, Henderson we all know what he did, Henderson's got to have all the confidence in the world, seems to be in better form, and also seems to have the better stats, and is too large an underdog for my liking - 0.5u Henderson 19/10
van Barneveld (69.8) v Beaton (43.4, +1) - both came through 2-0 against in form players from the Pro Tour rankings, Barney's the same price favourite as Chisnall is, but here Beaton's a lot closer in terms of doubling and his form is that much better than Thornton's. Will pass.
Price (60.3) v van de Pas (54.89, +6) - Benito needed a 144 out after Reyes missed a dart for a 155 to get the critical first set, he wasn't too convincing, didn't see Price's game but 2-1 over Smith has to be OK, Price seems a touch better but may allow Benito some shots given Benito's better doubling, line is about even so won't bet.
Suljovic (73.6, +2) v West (38.3) - Suljovic is a very big favourite on the numbers but not quite so much on the odds, only being around the same price as Chizzy and Barney which I really don't understand. Seems an automatic bet given Mensur's red hot form - 1u Suljovic 4/11
North (21.3) v Whitlock (88.1, +6) - can take these numbers with a pinch of salt, North's very much learning the stage game and has yet to really bring his floor form to it, Whitlock's a favourite and should come through but I don't really have enough information on North to start firing Whitlock at large odds-on prices given he survived a match dart and needed a ton+ checkout to get here.
Wright (66.1, +3) v King (48.4) - Wright dodged a huge bullet from, er, the Bullet, who missed clear darts to win, Wright didn't seem too hot, King's been looking OK for quite a while now and we're being offered good odds on Mervyn, if I was to bet it'd be on King but Wright's been getting a knack of closing out tournaments when he is the favourite to do so, if you want to punt go ahead but I'll leave this one and stick with these four bets.
As an aside, I've scoured the BDO's website and can still only find the stats for the last 16 games, well seven of them, one of the links is broken. Have emailed to see if they'll post up the remaining information but have had no response as of yet, I'd like to cover them in more detail but they're not helping themselves by not coughing up the numbers (and I can't even look back at the stream and do it manually, as it's still region blocked on Youtube - live stream while it's on Eurosport, fine, now it's a VOD it seems daft).
Sunday, 1 October 2017
Players Championship 19/20, Grand Prix bets, random roundups
Will kick off with the random thoughts first - straight up it's Ratajski, your new World Master. This is quite the interesting one, the BDO allows for those PDC players that have only played the European and Challenge Tours to play it, so Ratajski entered and won the whole thing, coming in at the round of 144 (!) after a first round bye, coming through some close games but ripped everyone apart once the seeds came in, taking out Veenstra, Soutar, Durrant, Menzies and McGeeney in the final, not a bad list. I would imagine he'd play Lakeside now, he has an automatic berth into it, and didn't qualify for the PDC worlds through the Eastern Europe qualifier, which was won by relatively unknown Croat Alan Ljubic, and he's right on the borderline for the Pro Tour spots, with only ET12 to go while everyone else has two more Pro Tour events, so with the likes of Dobey and Quantock also qualifying for it, it'll be very tough for him to make it. Elsewhere in worlds news, Diogo Portela made it from the South American qualifier, which I can't imagine was a great standard, he's not made any real inroads on the Pro Tour so I can't see him making it out against most qualifiers he'd face.
The Ireland Pro Tour events are in the book, only two remaining now so the field for the Players Championship Finals is getting a lot closer to being set, there's quite a lot of big names that aren't in five figures like Dobey, van den Bergh, Gilding, Payne, Jamie Lewis, Caven, Rodriguez, Hopp, a big final weekend is needed. So from what's in the book:
Performance of the weekend - This has to be Mensur Suljovic, grabbing a second ranking title to go with the Champions League in what's been an amazing September, only losing to an on fire Rob Cross in Friday's semi final. He's got to be one to watch out for in Dublin this week. Elsewhere, Vincent van der Voort had two quarter finals, Ron Meulenkamp continued his good form from Riesa in reaching two board finals, and Steve Lennon got two cashes, one of them being a quarter final.
Best tournament performance - Rob Cross for sure, he absolutely nailed it, the PDC reporting three twelve darters in the final against Peter Wright, meanwhile earlier he beat van der Voort and Suljovic losing only one leg, and also had to get through James Wade, Justin Pipe, Raymond van Barneveld in the first round as well as Dave Pallett. Not the easiest run you'll ever see, and apart from against Wade he was never in trouble at all. Shouts to Madars Razma and Antonio Alcinas for their best runs to date, and Bunting hit a bit of form reaching the final yesterday.
Best single match performance - Not a great deal stands out from either of the Pro Tour events, most of the real great scores come from those players who already got mentioned. Nothing really stands out from the European qualifier either, so this is a tough one. I'll go Ryan Meikle for his 6-2 win over Dave Chisnall, Shepherd 6-1 over Cullen and Gilding over Adie by the same score coming close. Hendo whitewashing Richardson can't have been too bad either.
Worst weekend long performance - With everyone playing except Gary Anderson that's in the Grand Prix field you'd expect the real elite to grab at least one title, but they didn't, so I think it has to be Michael van Gerwen, losing to Suljovic in a quarter final and not even winning his board in the other, going out to Vincent van der Voort. Gurney lost a pair of 6-4's in the first round to Kirk Shepherd and Vincent Kamphuis, Cullen also went out first round both times, Benito van de Pas continues to struggle with just the one win, and that needed a deciding leg.
Worst single match performance - Adrian Lewis going out 6-1 to Andrew Gilding came out of absolutely nowhere. Really surprised that Lewis didn't win that one, let alone lose by that scoreline.
New adjusted FRH rankings (this includes Grand Prix mincashes, although that makes no difference to the order):
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Phil Taylor
5 Mensur Suljovic (UP 2)
6 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
7 Daryl Gurney (DOWN 1)
8 Michael Smith
9 James Wade
10 Simon Whitlock
11 Raymond van Barneveld
12 Kim Huybrechts
13 Alan Norris
14 Ian White
15 Jelle Klaasen
16 Benito van de Pas
17 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
18 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 1)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Rob Cross is now up to #22, James Wilson re-enters the top 30 following his semi final, Antonio Alcinas jumped a bunch of spots to near the top 100, while Madars Razma creeps in to the top 150.
In terms of potential movement following the Grand Prix, the top 3 are set. Taylor can drop if Suljovic reaches the semi final, Chisnall or Gurney reach the final, or if anyone down to Cullen binks it. Places 5-7 are separated by less than ten grand, while Smith down to Lewis has just 25 grand separating all of them, then there's about a 10 grand drop to Cullen before King's a further 25 grand back. Darren Webster and Rob Cross can get into the top 20 with a quarter final appearance if King goes out first round (Cross would technically be short right now, but King will almost certainly lose enough in comparison to Cross on the gradual prize money reduction system this week), while Reyes, Bunting, Beaton and Kyle Anderson could get in the top 20 with a semi final.
So, bets. I've yet to put the Riesa data into the system (or, for that matter, the World Masters, although I can only find the last 16 so far in the BDO's god-awful designed web page), so I'm just going to consider the form from there and that over the last two days. Looking in order of play, I'm firing the following:
0.5u Norris 8/13 v Pipe
0.5u Lewis 21/20 v Gurney
0.5u Reyes 11/10 v van de Pas
0.5u Whitlock 1/2 v Kist
1u Anderson 1/9 v North - Sunday evening edit - Anderson's withdrawn, so void
Very nearly also firing on White against Suljovic, but Suljovic's form and confidence is unquantifiable and puts enough doubt into things that I don't want to fire. I'm being very cagey here given the very short format and bad previous performance on these, in particular I think I could go a lot heavier on Anderson, but I'll play it fairly safe for now and wait to see what develops in longer races.
The Ireland Pro Tour events are in the book, only two remaining now so the field for the Players Championship Finals is getting a lot closer to being set, there's quite a lot of big names that aren't in five figures like Dobey, van den Bergh, Gilding, Payne, Jamie Lewis, Caven, Rodriguez, Hopp, a big final weekend is needed. So from what's in the book:
Performance of the weekend - This has to be Mensur Suljovic, grabbing a second ranking title to go with the Champions League in what's been an amazing September, only losing to an on fire Rob Cross in Friday's semi final. He's got to be one to watch out for in Dublin this week. Elsewhere, Vincent van der Voort had two quarter finals, Ron Meulenkamp continued his good form from Riesa in reaching two board finals, and Steve Lennon got two cashes, one of them being a quarter final.
Best tournament performance - Rob Cross for sure, he absolutely nailed it, the PDC reporting three twelve darters in the final against Peter Wright, meanwhile earlier he beat van der Voort and Suljovic losing only one leg, and also had to get through James Wade, Justin Pipe, Raymond van Barneveld in the first round as well as Dave Pallett. Not the easiest run you'll ever see, and apart from against Wade he was never in trouble at all. Shouts to Madars Razma and Antonio Alcinas for their best runs to date, and Bunting hit a bit of form reaching the final yesterday.
Best single match performance - Not a great deal stands out from either of the Pro Tour events, most of the real great scores come from those players who already got mentioned. Nothing really stands out from the European qualifier either, so this is a tough one. I'll go Ryan Meikle for his 6-2 win over Dave Chisnall, Shepherd 6-1 over Cullen and Gilding over Adie by the same score coming close. Hendo whitewashing Richardson can't have been too bad either.
Worst weekend long performance - With everyone playing except Gary Anderson that's in the Grand Prix field you'd expect the real elite to grab at least one title, but they didn't, so I think it has to be Michael van Gerwen, losing to Suljovic in a quarter final and not even winning his board in the other, going out to Vincent van der Voort. Gurney lost a pair of 6-4's in the first round to Kirk Shepherd and Vincent Kamphuis, Cullen also went out first round both times, Benito van de Pas continues to struggle with just the one win, and that needed a deciding leg.
Worst single match performance - Adrian Lewis going out 6-1 to Andrew Gilding came out of absolutely nowhere. Really surprised that Lewis didn't win that one, let alone lose by that scoreline.
New adjusted FRH rankings (this includes Grand Prix mincashes, although that makes no difference to the order):
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Phil Taylor
5 Mensur Suljovic (UP 2)
6 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
7 Daryl Gurney (DOWN 1)
8 Michael Smith
9 James Wade
10 Simon Whitlock
11 Raymond van Barneveld
12 Kim Huybrechts
13 Alan Norris
14 Ian White
15 Jelle Klaasen
16 Benito van de Pas
17 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
18 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 1)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Rob Cross is now up to #22, James Wilson re-enters the top 30 following his semi final, Antonio Alcinas jumped a bunch of spots to near the top 100, while Madars Razma creeps in to the top 150.
In terms of potential movement following the Grand Prix, the top 3 are set. Taylor can drop if Suljovic reaches the semi final, Chisnall or Gurney reach the final, or if anyone down to Cullen binks it. Places 5-7 are separated by less than ten grand, while Smith down to Lewis has just 25 grand separating all of them, then there's about a 10 grand drop to Cullen before King's a further 25 grand back. Darren Webster and Rob Cross can get into the top 20 with a quarter final appearance if King goes out first round (Cross would technically be short right now, but King will almost certainly lose enough in comparison to Cross on the gradual prize money reduction system this week), while Reyes, Bunting, Beaton and Kyle Anderson could get in the top 20 with a semi final.
So, bets. I've yet to put the Riesa data into the system (or, for that matter, the World Masters, although I can only find the last 16 so far in the BDO's god-awful designed web page), so I'm just going to consider the form from there and that over the last two days. Looking in order of play, I'm firing the following:
0.5u Norris 8/13 v Pipe
0.5u Lewis 21/20 v Gurney
0.5u Reyes 11/10 v van de Pas
0.5u Whitlock 1/2 v Kist
Very nearly also firing on White against Suljovic, but Suljovic's form and confidence is unquantifiable and puts enough doubt into things that I don't want to fire. I'm being very cagey here given the very short format and bad previous performance on these, in particular I think I could go a lot heavier on Anderson, but I'll play it fairly safe for now and wait to see what develops in longer races.
Tuesday, 26 September 2017
Riesa's a ****hole, I want to go home - round up and trip report
Got back from Germany yesterday afternoon, straight back to work today so I'm only just done with pulling the stats off the PDC website, yet to plug them into the master computer so I doubt I get any Grand Prix bets up before Friday at the earliest. Peter Wright binked as 26 of the 32 players for Hasselt are now confirmed, but what awards for the weekend?
Best player performance: A few contenders. I'm not giving it to Wright, he was let off on quite a few legs (heck, his first leg won for the weekend took twenty five darts) - Ronny Huybrechts could easily have had leg two and opened up a 3-0 lead, and he then allowed Wright to get the key break in six visits, Klaasen let Wright do that three times, after that he wasn't bad at all. I'm also not giving it to Huybrechts, his best game was his first and he didn't produce a single twelve darter all weekend. It comes down to either Dennis Nilsson or the two semi-finalists. Nilsson took what was given to him and pinned some important legs when needed, Meulenkamp had a pretty straightforward run, not needing much to see off either McGowan or Smith, Payne wasn't that great a performance but the game against Nilsson was quality, particularly towards the latter end. I think it has to go to Cullen, threatening the nine darter, having the single best performance of the weekend against Richie Corner (matching Ratajski's three legs won in twelve darts and three in fifteen darts), following it up with very consistent arrows against Norris and Whitlock, it was only Kim Huybrechts that could stop him, where Cullen really couldn't get going for three legs.
Best single match performance: No multiple award for Cullen. Corner was OK in round 1, Price looked decent in the second, as did Klaasen, Chisnall, Suljovic especially and Norris, on the final day Nilsson looked good against Chisnall, Price again looked good against Suljovic. Will give it to Mensur for his crushing win over Willie O'Connor, every leg in under fifteen darts, with two in twelve.
Worst player performance: Could go for Benito, but I think Cristo Reyes - letting Huybrechts cruise into a 3-0 lead, only getting the legs he did because he was allowed to, none of his four legs were under fifteen darts.
Worst single match performance: Andy Hamilton I think has to take this one, losing 6-0 to Brendan Dolan in a match where Dolan needed more than fifteen darts in all but one leg, averaging only 70. On Twitter he did post that his mind might not be in the right place and I hope he can get himself back on track, albeit looking like it'd be without a tour card for next season.
New adjusted FRH rankings (these do not include any Grand Prix money, although that would make no difference to the standings):
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Phil Taylor
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Daryl Gurney
7 Mensur Suljovic
8 Michael Smith
9 James Wade
10 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
11 Raymond van Barneveld (DOWN 1)
12 Kim Huybrechts (UP 5)
13 Alan Norris (DOWN 1)
14 Ian White (DOWN 1)
15 Jelle Klaasen
16 Benito van de Pas
17 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 3)
18 Gerwyn Price
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Outside these rankings, Ronny Huybrechts moves into the top 40, Ron Meulenkamp reaches the top 50, Peter Jacques is inside the top 70 while Dennis Nilsson debuts at number 156.
So, trip report. Riesa is a dump. An enormous dump. Now, somewhere that is twinned with Rotherham should automatically set off nuclear level drudge sirens in relation to that it might be a bit of a crap town, but for the love of god. On leaving the station you walk through some questionable looking tower blocks, through a town centre that seemingly has nothing there, in terms of actual activity I think I saw one supermarket (naturally shut, it was Sunday in Germany after all) and that's about it. I can only assume the PDC hold it here because it's cheap? It is somewhat well located (not far by any form of transport from three decent-sized cities) and does have a venue well capable of holding a Euro Tour event, but that's about it.
Of the darts itself, it wasn't a bad session. Wright/Huybrechts was a bit cagey, Ronny getting a couple of unfortunate bounceouts at key moments which might have extended the game. Klaasen/Jacques was decent until Jacques got 4-3 up with a break, then his game kind of fell apart as the finish line approached. Chisnall/Nilsson looked like being one way traffic but Nilsson hit back well, holding his game together and getting over the line when Chisnall managed one dart in a big treble out of 21. Meulenkamp/Payne seemed to be the designated piss/beer break match and I don't recall much of it (at this stage I was as focussed on updates on us smashing the Pigs in the Steel City derby on my mobile, paying five euros for the privilege of WiFi as, despite my phone telling me data roaming was on, it was silly enough to give me that option despite somehow having turned off mobile data completely the day before, which I didn't notice until back in the UK, oops), Suljovic/Price was probably the highlight in terms of quality, obviously the crowd were supporting Mensur, but fair play to Price for coming back after being broken in the critical ninth leg and getting the last two. Huybrechts/White was another decent game that went the distance, just the pair of back to back breaks in legs four and five, everything else being held in good order, Cullen then put together a good blitz at the end of his game with Norris to rattle off four straight legs to close out the match after the first five went with throw. Whitlock/King closed out the session, a bit of a damp squib which was one sided.
Didn't look too much at merchandise, although what they had at Munich last time was horribly overpriced (60 euros for an Eclipse Pro lol), beer was 4.50 with a two euro deposit on the cup (rolled Whitlock, Wright, someone else I can't remember which might have been Smith followed by Suljovic twice), was sat on a table next to a bunch of Union Berlin fans who oddly also follow Nottingham Forest, who despite my German not being the greatest (although they said it was OK) and their English being almost as bad provided for decent banter, sure they loved their result yesterday.
Would definitely go back to the Euro Tour again, although I doubt it'd be next year - nothing really works that well in terms of scheduling, Leverkusen would work fine except it's during an international break, and most of the rest of the German events are either in the middle of nowhere or outside of the football season which I'd look to tie the weekend in with.
Look back later this week for Grand Prix tips, let's tentatively say Saturday once the Pro Tour is in the books (Jenkins again not playing, although rumoured to be trying the last two) and we can see any super late form.
Sunday, 17 September 2017
World Grand Prix draw
It's out, and given the limited number of seeds in relation to the field size, it's thrown up quite a few interesting first round ties - the seeds can easily get a top 10 player in the opening round, as Adrian Lewis has found with Daryl Gurney, similar with Dave Chisnall and Jelle Klaasen, while it also offers the opportunity for lesser or out of form players to draw another and have a chance of getting a run going, as Alan Norris and Justin Pipe have (well, until they likely meet Michael van Gerwen in the second round). The double in format also gives opportunities for surprise results, particularly with the first few rounds being on the short side, particularly the opener being a rapid race to two sets - if your opponent is getting away pretty well, it only takes one leg of yours where you kick off with three misses at double and you're out pretty quickly.
I'm going to post up the chances of each player winning a set on their throw if it was a normal format - as such, I'll also list each player's double percentage this season based on the table of ochepedia's mentioned previously (thanks for replying with North's figure by the way), and you can think about how to adjust winning percentages from there. As an aside, I'd think that the figures for starting will be higher than these - you can always aim for your favourite double to start, and can switch if you miss in such a way that you block things horribly (mostly thinking those players who have a flat angle of entry who like tops).
Michael van Gerwen (82.2% to win set on throw, 43.1% doubles) v John Henderson (29.1%, 38.9%)
Alan Norris (72%, 33%) v Justin Pipe (42%, 26.3%)
Raymond van Barneveld (63.8%, 38.5%) v Kyle Anderson (51.2%, 37.5%)
Steve Beaton (50.3%, 40.7%) v Rob Cross (64%, 36.6%)
Dave Chisnall (67.4%, 37.6%) v Jelle Klaasen (46%, 37.7%)
Robert Thornton (42.7%, 31.8%) v Kim Huybrechts (69.5%, 37%)
Adrian Lewis (75.3%, 38.5%) v Daryl Gurney (37.9%, 38.1%)
Joe Cullen (59.9%, 40.7%) v Darren Webster (55.3%, 35%)
Gary Anderson (94.3%, 40.9%) v Richard North (11.5%, 31.9%)
Simon Whitlock (74.4%, 39%) v Christian Kist (39.5%, 36.5%)
Michael Smith (65.9%, 36.8%) v Gerwyn Price (48.3%, 34.2%)
Benito van de Pas (51.9%, 41%) v Cristo Reyes (63.3%, 41.8%)
Mensur Suljovic (64.2%, 38.3%) v Ian White (51.1%, 44%)
Steve West (50.7%, 36.8%) v James Wade (62.3%, 38%)
Peter Wright (73.8%, 41.3%) v Stephen Bunting (40.7%, 33.8%)
Mervyn King (70.3%, 39%) v Ronny Huybrechts (43.4%, 34.5%)
Early thoughts (no bets yet, will wait for data from Riesa and there's very few lines up at this stage, although scanning bwin I'll point out if anything looks OK):
- Henderson is going to need to be on top of his game to stand a chance, but looking at those numbers it's not completely drawing dead, even if you assume that the difference in doubling knocks Henderson's chances of winning his set down to, say, 25%, that's still a one in sixteen chance if he wins the bull, ignoring the possibility of breaking the van Gerwen set.
- Big chance for both of these to get a few extra grand, Norris to solidify his top 16 spot and Pipe to stick around in the top 32, both seem quite bad at doubles and aren't in the best of form so this could end up in a deciding set.
- Bit of a big game here, neither can be that happy with the draw, Raymond should have an edge but it's not by that much.
- Two form players clashing here, should again be quite even, think Cross has the small edge but if Beaton can get going then anything goes.
- Interesting one between two players who score well but who can double badly (ironically their stats are real similar), will just be a case of who's able to keep things consistent for the small race to two.
- Another couple of players who are a bit inconsistent - Thornton's got course and distance, but really shouldn't be here at all, Huybrechts' form has been quite mediocre as well. If he hits doubles well enough at both ends he should have too much, but it's a big if.
- Lewis against Gurney in round one, jesus. Jackpot comes up good on my stats a lot as he's either unplayable, or really mediocre (his games yesterday seem like a perfect example of it), Gurney averages better in losing legs. Bookies have it even, which given Gurney's form and homefield advantage seems not too unreasonable, but this should still be a Lewis bet. Probably.
- Cullen and Webster are both playing decent in what looks like one of the closest games of the first round. Cullen's double figures could be the difference, it's a bit better, nobody questions Webster's scoring, he's just got to be in a position to use it.
- North is here but probably one and done, Anderson should just be far too good. On what I've seen of North, he simply doesn't score highly enough to threaten.
- Decent draw for both Whitlock and Kist, Whitlock looking to solidify a place in the top 16 while Kist is knocking on the door of the top 32. Whitlock could be a bet, he seems to have more of an edge than the current line suggests.
- Smith/Price could be tasty. Two confidence players, difference could be form, Smith's upswinging a bit whereas Price isn't quite at his peak level.
- Benito badly needs a result here, and Reyes isn't the player he'd want to face at this stage. It's the only game between players with over 40% on doubling, so it shouldn't be a cagey affair, it may well be a close one though, with Benito likely drawing some confidence from his recent European Tour run.
- Another game against solid, consistent players who can double in Suljovic and White, White is very much live in this one, although Suljovic has answered a lot of questions that were flying around in terms of form yesterday to ease through to the Cardiff exbo semi finals.
- Wade isn't seeded but got an alright draw, thing is with Wade is that even with alright draws today he's not going to be a name that'll scare anyone. Could be worth a West punt, he performed great here last year.
- Wright can't be too displeased with this draw, but he's not that big a favourite that he can mess around missing doubles as he did again today, Bunting's good enough on his day to pressure, and he'll know he needs to make a TV run sooner rather than later.
- Have mentioned that King has been playing well a few times on here of recent, he cannot complain at getting Ronny Huybrechts, who's a fair bit weaker in all aspects of the game than King, the line I see doesn't even have this as a 2-1 game, it might be a King bet.
I'm going to post up the chances of each player winning a set on their throw if it was a normal format - as such, I'll also list each player's double percentage this season based on the table of ochepedia's mentioned previously (thanks for replying with North's figure by the way), and you can think about how to adjust winning percentages from there. As an aside, I'd think that the figures for starting will be higher than these - you can always aim for your favourite double to start, and can switch if you miss in such a way that you block things horribly (mostly thinking those players who have a flat angle of entry who like tops).
Michael van Gerwen (82.2% to win set on throw, 43.1% doubles) v John Henderson (29.1%, 38.9%)
Alan Norris (72%, 33%) v Justin Pipe (42%, 26.3%)
Raymond van Barneveld (63.8%, 38.5%) v Kyle Anderson (51.2%, 37.5%)
Steve Beaton (50.3%, 40.7%) v Rob Cross (64%, 36.6%)
Dave Chisnall (67.4%, 37.6%) v Jelle Klaasen (46%, 37.7%)
Robert Thornton (42.7%, 31.8%) v Kim Huybrechts (69.5%, 37%)
Adrian Lewis (75.3%, 38.5%) v Daryl Gurney (37.9%, 38.1%)
Joe Cullen (59.9%, 40.7%) v Darren Webster (55.3%, 35%)
Gary Anderson (94.3%, 40.9%) v Richard North (11.5%, 31.9%)
Simon Whitlock (74.4%, 39%) v Christian Kist (39.5%, 36.5%)
Michael Smith (65.9%, 36.8%) v Gerwyn Price (48.3%, 34.2%)
Benito van de Pas (51.9%, 41%) v Cristo Reyes (63.3%, 41.8%)
Mensur Suljovic (64.2%, 38.3%) v Ian White (51.1%, 44%)
Steve West (50.7%, 36.8%) v James Wade (62.3%, 38%)
Peter Wright (73.8%, 41.3%) v Stephen Bunting (40.7%, 33.8%)
Mervyn King (70.3%, 39%) v Ronny Huybrechts (43.4%, 34.5%)
Early thoughts (no bets yet, will wait for data from Riesa and there's very few lines up at this stage, although scanning bwin I'll point out if anything looks OK):
- Henderson is going to need to be on top of his game to stand a chance, but looking at those numbers it's not completely drawing dead, even if you assume that the difference in doubling knocks Henderson's chances of winning his set down to, say, 25%, that's still a one in sixteen chance if he wins the bull, ignoring the possibility of breaking the van Gerwen set.
- Big chance for both of these to get a few extra grand, Norris to solidify his top 16 spot and Pipe to stick around in the top 32, both seem quite bad at doubles and aren't in the best of form so this could end up in a deciding set.
- Bit of a big game here, neither can be that happy with the draw, Raymond should have an edge but it's not by that much.
- Two form players clashing here, should again be quite even, think Cross has the small edge but if Beaton can get going then anything goes.
- Interesting one between two players who score well but who can double badly (ironically their stats are real similar), will just be a case of who's able to keep things consistent for the small race to two.
- Another couple of players who are a bit inconsistent - Thornton's got course and distance, but really shouldn't be here at all, Huybrechts' form has been quite mediocre as well. If he hits doubles well enough at both ends he should have too much, but it's a big if.
- Lewis against Gurney in round one, jesus. Jackpot comes up good on my stats a lot as he's either unplayable, or really mediocre (his games yesterday seem like a perfect example of it), Gurney averages better in losing legs. Bookies have it even, which given Gurney's form and homefield advantage seems not too unreasonable, but this should still be a Lewis bet. Probably.
- Cullen and Webster are both playing decent in what looks like one of the closest games of the first round. Cullen's double figures could be the difference, it's a bit better, nobody questions Webster's scoring, he's just got to be in a position to use it.
- North is here but probably one and done, Anderson should just be far too good. On what I've seen of North, he simply doesn't score highly enough to threaten.
- Decent draw for both Whitlock and Kist, Whitlock looking to solidify a place in the top 16 while Kist is knocking on the door of the top 32. Whitlock could be a bet, he seems to have more of an edge than the current line suggests.
- Smith/Price could be tasty. Two confidence players, difference could be form, Smith's upswinging a bit whereas Price isn't quite at his peak level.
- Benito badly needs a result here, and Reyes isn't the player he'd want to face at this stage. It's the only game between players with over 40% on doubling, so it shouldn't be a cagey affair, it may well be a close one though, with Benito likely drawing some confidence from his recent European Tour run.
- Another game against solid, consistent players who can double in Suljovic and White, White is very much live in this one, although Suljovic has answered a lot of questions that were flying around in terms of form yesterday to ease through to the Cardiff exbo semi finals.
- Wade isn't seeded but got an alright draw, thing is with Wade is that even with alright draws today he's not going to be a name that'll scare anyone. Could be worth a West punt, he performed great here last year.
- Wright can't be too displeased with this draw, but he's not that big a favourite that he can mess around missing doubles as he did again today, Bunting's good enough on his day to pressure, and he'll know he needs to make a TV run sooner rather than later.
- Have mentioned that King has been playing well a few times on here of recent, he cannot complain at getting Ronny Huybrechts, who's a fair bit weaker in all aspects of the game than King, the line I see doesn't even have this as a 2-1 game, it might be a King bet.
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