This evening seems like a bit of a rubbish session with all the seeds being heavy favourites and only the prelim slated as being competitive, so let's get half way through the round two previews with two more games with what is post 180 of this blog:
(5) Mensur Suljovic v (28) Robert Thornton (evening session, Friday 22nd)
Round 1 - Suljovic 3-0 vs Painter, Thornton 3-1 vs Dolan
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - Suljovic 65.44%, Thornton 48.42%
Matchplay to date - Suljovic 62.94%, Thornton 54.34%
European Championship to date - Suljovic 59.78%, Thornton 57.09%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 11.39% Suljovic 4-0, 39.92% Suljovic 4-1/4-2, 28.92% 3-3, 16.97% Thornton 4-1/4-2, 2.80% Thornton 4-0
Matchplay to date - 8.26% Suljovic 4-0, 34.30% Suljovic 4-1/4-2, 31.11% 3-3, 22.27% Thornton 4-1/4-2, 4.06% Thornton 4-0
European Championship to date - 6.58% Suljovic 4-0, 30.11% Suljovic 4-1/4-2, 31.73% 3-3, 26.31% Thornton 4-1/4-2, 5.27% Thornton 4-0
Interesting numbers, I thought that Suljovic would be a more dominant favourite than that (the market has it at nearly 75/25 in favour of Mensur), and that the stats would be trending further that way the nearer we got to the present, not shifting in favour of the Scot so much that there's not much to split them at all. But let's add some caveats - Thornton's data for the whole year is only from 38 legs plus those that he won against Brendan Dolan in the first round, that's not much of a sample at all - Suljovic has a sample five times that size, and it is likely to be more reliable. Thornton's finishing against Dolan was very good, with eight of nine legs won within fifteen darts including two twelve dart legs, and with him not playing either the Grand Slam or the European Championship, the only other data in the last sample is from the Players Championship, where he didn't win many legs at all. Suljovic's overall data doesn't include the major he won as it was unranked, while Thornton's best run was in the double in Grand Prix, so that's not in the data either. If you take the full data set, Suljovic wins within the distance at about a 51:20 ratio - that's not a million miles off the market price. If you want to look at whether Thornton would keep things as tidy over a larger sample, season long his losing average was less than two points off his winning average, so it's probable that he does, and that he's maybe been unlucky in places to run into decent opponents. I didn't watch the Thornton game, but Suljovic didn't look in complete red hot form against Painter, who was quite bad, while Thornton at least averaged 98 in his game. Seems mad to suggest it, but if it's a bet either way, it's a bet on Thornton at the underdog price of nearly 3/1, but I'm not in a habit of backing Thornton (the last time I did it was in the 2016 Matchplay, where he lost 11-2 to Chisnall) and I'm not going to start now.
(3) Gary Anderson v Paul Lim (evening session, Friday 22nd)
Round 1 - Anderson 3-0 v J Smith, Lim 3-2 v M Webster
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - Anderson 74.99%, Lim 38.21%
Matchplay to date - Anderson 75.48%, Lim 37.55%
European Championship to date - Anderson 72.89%, Lim 40.08%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 21.47% Anderson 4-0, 50.09% Anderson 4-1/4-2, 20.30% 3-3, 7.23% Lim 4-1/4-2, 0.91% Lim 4-0
Matchplay to date - 22.22% Anderson 4-0, 50.44% Anderson 4-1/4-2, 19.68% 3-3, 6.80% Lim 4-1/4-2, 0.85% Lim 4-0
European Championship to date - 19.08% Anderson 4-0, 48.57% Anderson 4-1/4-2, 22.34% 3-3, 8.84% Lim 4-1/4-2, 1.18% Lim 4-0
A game where there's a big sample size issue - as an international qualifier, the only data I have on Lim is his amazing performances last night, but also for Anderson, he's not played a great deal of ranked darts either - at less than 100 legs in the 2017 to date sample (early busts in several majors, if he played them at all, no European Tour) there's not much to go on, hence the stats don't change a great deal throughout the year. Anderson took Smith apart with a 100 average despite needing seven visits to win three of his legs won - a blistering second set having a lot to do with that, while Lim came through an edgy game against former Lakeside champion Mark Webster, missing a match dart that let Webster back in but not making more mistakes after that, and slamming in maximums for fun. But let's put things in perspective - Lim won 19 legs yesterday, but only managed ten of them in fifteen darts or less, and was averaging under 90 in the legs he lost. That might cut it against a struggling, nervous Webster, but won't work against a truly elite player like Anderson. The bookies make this game the same line as the van Gerwen v Wilson matchup, and I really don't know who that's being unkind to, if anyone, I'm going to ignore it as even in Lim's best projections he doesn't get home anywhere near enough to consider a punt, and 1/25 on Anderson doesn't seem worth any sort of bet as it's so short. After all, stranger things have happened - see the World Cup for one.
Some things to look for on Thursday/Friday once round one is done - I'll post an updated FRH ranking list to show who's making strides in the right direction, and I'll also post up the Peak Boo rankings which I've previewed on Twitter, highlighting who has got the biggest boo for coming closest to a nine darter but failing. As Oreshkin has just lost, despite Münch missing a trillion doubles for the game, he's become the first player not to even register a 1 on that ranking. Possibly be back later for previews of Kyle Anderson and Daryl Gurney against their respective opponents.
Tuesday, 19 December 2017
Monday, 18 December 2017
Round 2 Previews - Part 2
Hope everyone was on board the Keegan Brown hype train that pulls us back to level in the betting stakes, yesterday's results have given us another three matches we can preview so let's start off right away with the game decided as a result of that Brown match:
Keegan Brown v Zoran Lerchbacher (afternoon session, Saturday 23rd)
Round 1 - Brown 3-2 vs Wade, Lerchbacher 3-2 vs King
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - Brown 76.82%, Lerchbacher 36.03%
Matchplay to date - Brown 74.42%, Lerchbacher 39.85%
European Championship to date - Brown 80.86%, Lerchbacher 30.57%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 24.16% Brown 4-0, 51.20% Brown 4-1/4-2, 18.14% 3-3, 5.80% Lerchbacher 4-1/4-2, 0.70% Lerchbacher 4-0
Matchplay to date - 20.04% Brown 4-0, 49.38% Brown 4-1/4-2, 21.47% 3-3, 8.07% Lerchbacher 4-1/4-2, 1.04% Lerchbacher 4-0
European Championship to date - 31.52% Brown 4-0, 51.98% Brown 4-1/4-2, 12.98% 3-3, 3.18% Lerchbacher 4-1/4-2, 0.34% Lerchbacher 4-0
Two players here who have come through seeds in deciding sets, Brown coming out on top of a swinging game against James Wade, while Lerchbacher was the beneficiary of a mid-game recurrence of Mervyn King's back injury to come from 2-0 down in sets winning eight legs on the bounce. These stats all look to favour Brown somewhat comfortably, although there's not a huge sample on either player so we'll apply a bit of caution. Brown won eight out of his twelve won legs in fifteen darts or less and averaged over 90 in losing legs, which is a solid standard, while Lerchbacher only managed four out of his thirteen legs won in the same speed, but averaged a point higher than Brown in the legs King won. Whether Lerchbacher would have stepped his game up if he needed to given King's injury is a question that we'll never know the answer to, but his season long stats say that he was performing pretty much as you would expect him to, so I'm not sure if he would have done. The bookies have this surprisingly even, with Brown only a small favourite, Brown has shown in the past that he is able to maintain a good standard over a long format, see the 2014 Grand Slam for the best example where he overturned Barney in a race to 10 and was only two legs shy of eventual finalist Dave Chisnall in a race to 16, whereas Lerchbacher is in unchartered territory to the best of my knowledge. Brown should capitalise here - 1u Brown 3/4.
(16) Gerwyn Price v (17) Ian White (afternoon session, Friday 22nd)
Round 1 - Price 3-0 vs Evetts, White 3-1 vs Harris
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - Price 59.75%, White 56.65%
Matchplay to date - Price 66.70%, White 50.73%
European Championship to date - Price 82.93%, White 30.56%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 6.71% Price 4-0, 30.39% Price 4-1/4-2, 31.68% 3-3, 26.03% White 4-1/4-2, 5.20% White 4-0
Matchplay to date - 10.80% Price 4-0, 39.39% Price 4-1/4-2, 29.42% 3-3, 17.54% White 4-1/4-2, 2.85% White 4-0
European Championship to date - 33.16% Price 4-0, 52.03% Price 4-1/4-2, 11.85% 3-3, 2.68% White 4-1/4-2, 0.27% White 4-0
Another game that the bookies have pretty close, although this time it's somewhat expected given their one place difference in the seedings, and two place difference in the FRH rankings. There's interesting trends in those calculations, you might have thought the earlier ones would favour Price when they factor in the UK Open run (this, of course, being a rematch of the quarter final of that event), but it's actually the other way around, Price having thrown some great legs for little reward in the Grand Slam as well as at the European Championship. Those last figures are off at least 25 won legs from each player, so it's not likely that it's a sample size based outlier, although we should note that White's averaging a good four points better when losing legs, so maybe on another day White gets the shot to convert some decent legs. Neither player was particularly tested in the first round, but Price was still able to slot in seven from nine legs in fifteen darts, whereas White could only muster five out of ten. Price seems to be a statistical favourite, and it's close to a bet, I just feel that the whole year numbers seem to be more accurate than the more recent ones, and I don't think that generates quite enough of an edge to start backing, even at 5/6.
Vincent van der Voort v (25) Steve Beaton (afternoon session, Friday 22nd)
Round 1 - van der Voort 3-0 vs Chisnall, Beaton 3-1 vs O'Connor
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - van der Voort 60.26%, Beaton 53.54%
Matchplay to date - van der Voort 58.89%, Beaton 55.01%
European Championship to date - van der Voort 78.82%, Beaton 31.21%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 7.84% van der Voort 4-0, 32.90% van der Voort 4-1/4-2, 31.18% 3-3, 23.55% Beaton 4-1/4-2, 4.53% van der Voort 4-0
Matchplay to date - 7.02% van der Voort 4-0, 30.91% van der Voort 4-1/4-2, 31.47% 3-3, 25.48% Beaton 4-1/4-2, 5.11% Beaton 4-0
European Championship to date - 30.16% van der Voort 4-0, 51.98% van der Voort 4-1/4-2, 13.88% 3-3, 3.58% Beaton 4-1/4-2, 0.40% Beaton 4-0
Both players had fairly routine victories, Beaton perhaps being pushed a bit harder by O'Connor than van der Voort was by Chisnall. Vincent's a small favourite, and the larger samples indicate that should be an accurate line, but the more recent data favours van der Voort heavily - his play in round 1 was much better than Beaton's was, and despite his run at the Players Championship Finals, he didn't put in too many good legs - Vincent only got the five legs there but they were all good legs, Beaton after the first round couldn't manage half the legs he won in fifteen darts. It could be a case of that the back's working fine for the Dutchman and that some of Beaton's earlier season form has deserted him to an extent, it could just be variance. Wouldn't blame anyone for wanting to back van der Voort on current form, he does tend to play his best stuff here whereas Beaton hasn't got past this stage in a very long time, but I'll avoid it.
Keegan Brown v Zoran Lerchbacher (afternoon session, Saturday 23rd)
Round 1 - Brown 3-2 vs Wade, Lerchbacher 3-2 vs King
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - Brown 76.82%, Lerchbacher 36.03%
Matchplay to date - Brown 74.42%, Lerchbacher 39.85%
European Championship to date - Brown 80.86%, Lerchbacher 30.57%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 24.16% Brown 4-0, 51.20% Brown 4-1/4-2, 18.14% 3-3, 5.80% Lerchbacher 4-1/4-2, 0.70% Lerchbacher 4-0
Matchplay to date - 20.04% Brown 4-0, 49.38% Brown 4-1/4-2, 21.47% 3-3, 8.07% Lerchbacher 4-1/4-2, 1.04% Lerchbacher 4-0
European Championship to date - 31.52% Brown 4-0, 51.98% Brown 4-1/4-2, 12.98% 3-3, 3.18% Lerchbacher 4-1/4-2, 0.34% Lerchbacher 4-0
Two players here who have come through seeds in deciding sets, Brown coming out on top of a swinging game against James Wade, while Lerchbacher was the beneficiary of a mid-game recurrence of Mervyn King's back injury to come from 2-0 down in sets winning eight legs on the bounce. These stats all look to favour Brown somewhat comfortably, although there's not a huge sample on either player so we'll apply a bit of caution. Brown won eight out of his twelve won legs in fifteen darts or less and averaged over 90 in losing legs, which is a solid standard, while Lerchbacher only managed four out of his thirteen legs won in the same speed, but averaged a point higher than Brown in the legs King won. Whether Lerchbacher would have stepped his game up if he needed to given King's injury is a question that we'll never know the answer to, but his season long stats say that he was performing pretty much as you would expect him to, so I'm not sure if he would have done. The bookies have this surprisingly even, with Brown only a small favourite, Brown has shown in the past that he is able to maintain a good standard over a long format, see the 2014 Grand Slam for the best example where he overturned Barney in a race to 10 and was only two legs shy of eventual finalist Dave Chisnall in a race to 16, whereas Lerchbacher is in unchartered territory to the best of my knowledge. Brown should capitalise here - 1u Brown 3/4.
(16) Gerwyn Price v (17) Ian White (afternoon session, Friday 22nd)
Round 1 - Price 3-0 vs Evetts, White 3-1 vs Harris
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - Price 59.75%, White 56.65%
Matchplay to date - Price 66.70%, White 50.73%
European Championship to date - Price 82.93%, White 30.56%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 6.71% Price 4-0, 30.39% Price 4-1/4-2, 31.68% 3-3, 26.03% White 4-1/4-2, 5.20% White 4-0
Matchplay to date - 10.80% Price 4-0, 39.39% Price 4-1/4-2, 29.42% 3-3, 17.54% White 4-1/4-2, 2.85% White 4-0
European Championship to date - 33.16% Price 4-0, 52.03% Price 4-1/4-2, 11.85% 3-3, 2.68% White 4-1/4-2, 0.27% White 4-0
Another game that the bookies have pretty close, although this time it's somewhat expected given their one place difference in the seedings, and two place difference in the FRH rankings. There's interesting trends in those calculations, you might have thought the earlier ones would favour Price when they factor in the UK Open run (this, of course, being a rematch of the quarter final of that event), but it's actually the other way around, Price having thrown some great legs for little reward in the Grand Slam as well as at the European Championship. Those last figures are off at least 25 won legs from each player, so it's not likely that it's a sample size based outlier, although we should note that White's averaging a good four points better when losing legs, so maybe on another day White gets the shot to convert some decent legs. Neither player was particularly tested in the first round, but Price was still able to slot in seven from nine legs in fifteen darts, whereas White could only muster five out of ten. Price seems to be a statistical favourite, and it's close to a bet, I just feel that the whole year numbers seem to be more accurate than the more recent ones, and I don't think that generates quite enough of an edge to start backing, even at 5/6.
Vincent van der Voort v (25) Steve Beaton (afternoon session, Friday 22nd)
Round 1 - van der Voort 3-0 vs Chisnall, Beaton 3-1 vs O'Connor
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - van der Voort 60.26%, Beaton 53.54%
Matchplay to date - van der Voort 58.89%, Beaton 55.01%
European Championship to date - van der Voort 78.82%, Beaton 31.21%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 7.84% van der Voort 4-0, 32.90% van der Voort 4-1/4-2, 31.18% 3-3, 23.55% Beaton 4-1/4-2, 4.53% van der Voort 4-0
Matchplay to date - 7.02% van der Voort 4-0, 30.91% van der Voort 4-1/4-2, 31.47% 3-3, 25.48% Beaton 4-1/4-2, 5.11% Beaton 4-0
European Championship to date - 30.16% van der Voort 4-0, 51.98% van der Voort 4-1/4-2, 13.88% 3-3, 3.58% Beaton 4-1/4-2, 0.40% Beaton 4-0
Both players had fairly routine victories, Beaton perhaps being pushed a bit harder by O'Connor than van der Voort was by Chisnall. Vincent's a small favourite, and the larger samples indicate that should be an accurate line, but the more recent data favours van der Voort heavily - his play in round 1 was much better than Beaton's was, and despite his run at the Players Championship Finals, he didn't put in too many good legs - Vincent only got the five legs there but they were all good legs, Beaton after the first round couldn't manage half the legs he won in fifteen darts. It could be a case of that the back's working fine for the Dutchman and that some of Beaton's earlier season form has deserted him to an extent, it could just be variance. Wouldn't blame anyone for wanting to back van der Voort on current form, he does tend to play his best stuff here whereas Beaton hasn't got past this stage in a very long time, but I'll avoid it.
Sunday, 17 December 2017
Quick afternoon session comments
- Lewis looked outstanding. As I've commented on Twitter, he managed five four visit kills, two more than anyone else at this stage (admittedly he did have a prelim match, but he only got the one there, if you just consider round one he still leads the field), he's managed to get the highest score in each round in fantasy which is out of nowhere. Will need to keep things going like that to stand any chance in a rematch from last year against Wright, but if Wright's health issues mean he's not fully on then it's perfectly possible.
- Happy with the Viljanen bet. It needed a few things to go right, there wasn't much he could have done in the first set, but he had the shot to win the second and couldn't take it out, really disappointing to be broken twice in six visits from a 2-0 position. If he grabs that set I think Norris gets quite nervy, but we'll never know, Alan's probably going to have to up his game in the next round regardless of who he plays.
- Kyle Anderson did enough to get home but didn't look quite on. Jacques didn't do too badly, was pretty impressed with his adjustment to the treble 20 on several occasions after a duff first dart, if his first dart was clicking you can see what he has and why he managed to get to that Pro Tour final, a lot of his doubles didn't miss by much.
- Clayton was unbelievably disappointing. Maybe the hype train caught up with him, looking back at things he had little chance in the first set, the second could have been there but he threw away both his legs on throw, Jamie offered him no opportunities in the third set and cleaned up beautifully in the final leg.
Will probably give the prelim game a miss tonight, may try and get back for the Wade match, definitely fancy the Chisnall game.
- Happy with the Viljanen bet. It needed a few things to go right, there wasn't much he could have done in the first set, but he had the shot to win the second and couldn't take it out, really disappointing to be broken twice in six visits from a 2-0 position. If he grabs that set I think Norris gets quite nervy, but we'll never know, Alan's probably going to have to up his game in the next round regardless of who he plays.
- Kyle Anderson did enough to get home but didn't look quite on. Jacques didn't do too badly, was pretty impressed with his adjustment to the treble 20 on several occasions after a duff first dart, if his first dart was clicking you can see what he has and why he managed to get to that Pro Tour final, a lot of his doubles didn't miss by much.
- Clayton was unbelievably disappointing. Maybe the hype train caught up with him, looking back at things he had little chance in the first set, the second could have been there but he threw away both his legs on throw, Jamie offered him no opportunities in the third set and cleaned up beautifully in the final leg.
Will probably give the prelim game a miss tonight, may try and get back for the Wade match, definitely fancy the Chisnall game.
WC day 3 recap, first three round 2 previews
edit - I've added a link to the fantasy scoring on the links bar
Briefly before I start, thanks to anyone viewing from Reddit, and thanks for the tip that Argos are selling some cheap Winmau darts that I've ordered, will see how they go.
Urgh, ugly day on the betting. I guess hope that if you followed me on the King bet that you were with a bookmaker that paid out if you're two sets up at any point? Can't really factor in someone's game disappearing quite as King's did, I think that just goes down as unfortunate, but give credit to Lerchbacher for stepping in and taking the chances that were given. The Cullen game sounded like a right cracker, but missing four match darts, oh my. Cullen had the draw open up and couldn't take the chance, which is unfortunate, a possible last 16 tie against Anderson would have been fun to watch.
Speaking of Anderson, how good was he? That second set in particular was spectacular. In that sort of form he's got to be a huge favourite to reach a minimum of a semi final - the only seed left in the eighth of his draw is Mark Webster, and Taylor showed nothing against Dobey that made us think that he'd be able to live with Gary in a best of nine set match. Smith looked OK in the prelim just based on the numbers (I didn't get back to a TV until the last match of the evening session) but simply couldn't score.
Dekker coming through against Klaasen is one that I hope you were on which salvaged something from the day from a betting perspective, and his match against Dimitri in round two should be a corker, that's one that I can see going a fair bit of distance if both retain their form and should be a highlight. The Thornton/Dolan/Ljubic combination was one that went kind of how I thought it would have done - Dolan looked pretty solid in the prelim game with Ljubic not offering the kind of scoring that's going to hack it at the worlds level, while Thornton brought the game that he's shown sporadically which proved to be enough, despite Dolan hitting several nice checkouts. That just leaves the van de Pas/West matchup, completing a horrible season for the Dutchman as his streak of third round appearances comes to a halt while West was able to get his first world championship win. Will he get a second? As we know his opponent, let's look at his game first.
Steve West v Jermaine Wattimena (afternoon session, Saturday 23rd)
Round 1 - West 3-1 vs van de Pas, Wattimena 3-2 vs Cullen
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - West 61.30%, Wattimena 50.83%
Matchplay to date - West 68.58%, Wattimena 43.70%
European Championship to date - West 71.69%, Wattimena 44.22%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 9.09% West 4-0, 35.47% West 4-1/4-2, 30.49% 3-3, 21.08% Wattimena 4-1/4-2, 3.87% Wattimena 4-0
Matchplay to date - 14.91% West 4-0, 44.62% West 4-1/4-2, 25.98% 3-3, 12.61% Wattimena 4-1/4-2, 1.88% Wattimena 4-0
European Championship to date - 15.99% West 4-0, 46.25% West 4-1/4-2, 24.98% 3-3, 11.21% Wattimena 4-1/4-2, 1.57% Wattimena 4-0
Interesting to see that West's figures get better the more recent and smaller a sample size we take, even after we remove the Matchplay where West was throwing some amazing stuff. It goes from West cleaning up before a deciding set less than twice as often to around five times as often, which is quite a big swing, and surprising given that the match has been set up in the markets as close to a coin flip, with West being the favourite at a 5/6 v 6/5 line. So we should pile on West? Let's look at some other things that might make our mind up:
- Both players are pushing to get into that top 32 elite tier, with West probably being a bit closer, it's a big psychological step, Wattimena certainly has more time on his hands so might not have quite so much pressure.
- The two players finished 5th and 6th on the Pro Tour rankings with just 500 quid between them.
- Their head to head record is one win a piece, both in early rounds of UK Open qualifiers, the first a West win in 2015, the second, oddly being exactly a year later, going to Wattimena.
- In their first round games, West was able to punch in more fifteen dart legs, seven to Jermaine's five (one of those being the key twelve dart leg to break back to 1-1 in the deciding set), but Jermaine was putting Cullen under more pressure, averaging 96 on the legs Cullen won in comparison to West's 90. This makes their orthodox averages quite similar.
- Their consistency scores from the previous round analysis are similar, West's average in losing legs being within two points of his winning average, while Wattimena's is within three points.
I think this has to go to Steve - 1u West 5/6. His numbers just look better, he's got a lot more stage experience, particularly this year, he's got that "never won at the worlds" monkey off his back.
(1) Michael van Gerwen v (32) James Wilson (evening session, Friday 22nd)
Round 1 - van Gerwen 3-1 vs Kist, Wilson 3-1 vs Ratajski
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - van Gerwen 83.24%, Wilson 27.22%
Matchplay to date - van Gerwen 71.14%, Wilson 41.29%
European Championship to date - van Gerwen 65.52%, Wilson 49.81%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 36.71% van Gerwen 4-0, 51.01% van Gerwen 4-1/4-2, 10.01% 3-3, 2.06% Wilson 4-1/4-2, 0.21% Wilson 4-0
Matchplay to date - 17.45% van Gerwen 4-0, 47.20% van Gerwen 4-1/4-2, 23.77% 3-3, 10.17% Wilson 4-1/4-2, 1.42% Wilson 4-0
European Championship to date - 10.82% van Gerwen 4-0, 39.12% van Gerwen 4-1/4-2, 29.83% 3-3, 17.73% Wilson 4-1/4-2, 2.95% Wilson 4-0
Now to a game where the bookies don't have it close at all. But weirdly, despite van Gerwen coming into form later in the season winning everything in sight, Wilson's chances based on my model seem to improve as the year goes on as well. This seems ridiculously counter-intuitive, and the 1/25 line that van Gerwen's currently add makes sense in the context of the all 2017 data set, but on the last couple of months data set, he's not even getting to winning half the time without needing a deciding set. That doesn't seem right. Let's look why, and there's one very, very obvious reason - sample size. Wilson's matches that are in my sample look as follows:
First round here - won 10 legs, 1 being a twelve darter, 7 being fifteen darters
First round at the Players Championship - won 5 legs, 2 being twelve darters
Grand Slam matches - won 12 legs, 3 being twelve darters, 7 being fifteen darters
That's a total of 27 legs won, 22% of them being in twelve darts or less and 74% of them being in fifteen darts or less. Repeated over a big sample and that is world class elite play. Can he? And is he putting in the sorts of numbers needed when he's not winning? Not really. When he's losing legs he's only averaging 86, and he has won only one more leg than he's lost. The model only considers the legs you've won, so you need to take care to look at what they're doing when players are losing as well. Wilson's had, on average, nearly 5 visits per leg lost. If he was at a level where we'd start thinking that 18/1 is a sensible bet, then he would have taken a few of those legs and actually won them.
Jan Dekker v Dimitri van den Bergh (afternoon session, Friday 22nd - nobody told me about this! I'm at work, bastard!)
Round 1 - Dekker 3-1 vs Klaasen, van den Bergh 3-1 vs Bunting (funny how everyone we're previewing here has lost a set, even the world champion)
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - Dekker 48.41%, van den Bergh 65.33%
Matchplay to date - Dekker 20.49%, van den Bergh 87.84%
European Championship to date - Dekker 10.12%, van den Bergh 96.17%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 2.82% Dekker 4-0, 17.04% Dekker 4-1/4-2, 28.94% 3-3, 39.85% van den Bergh 4-1/4-2, 11.36% van den Bergh 4-0
Matchplay to date - 0.06% Dekker 4-0, 0.69% Dekker 4-1/4-2, 5.01% 3-3, 45.56% van den Bergh 4-1/4-2, 48.87% van den Bergh 4-0
European Championship to date - 0% Dekker 4-0, 0.02% Dekker 4-1/4-2, 0.49% 3-3, 24.76% van den Bergh 4-1/4-2, 74.72% van den Bergh 4-0
First things first, let's throw those last two sets of stats right out of the window. Dimitri has played four matches since the Matchplay which count in my stats - one loss on the European Tour where he lost 4-6 but hit two twelve darters, another loss in Europe where he lost 3-6 but hit two fifteen darters, his European Championship loss to Clayton where his only leg won was a fifteen darter, and that European Championship loss is the only other game that counts towards that last stat apart from his god mode antics against Bunting, so let's just look at the overall 2017 information and Dekker's information. Dekker's sample in that last data set is 40 legs, at a 10% clip in four visits and 50% in five visits - which is probably running a bit hot given his oft mentioned great doubling percentages which I kind of feel are unsustainable, drop some of those off and the four visit legs may turn into five, the five visit legs into six, or they may just turn into lost legs full stop. Over the whole sample, van den Bergh's now created a good edge for himself following that great first round performance - before then Dimitri was slightly over 50% on five visit kills compared to Dekker being bang on the line, Dimitri added ten legs in under fifteen darts including three legs in four visits - Dekker added two twelve darters but only four more legs in fifteen or less, with Klaasen allowing two legs in six visits and one in seven (which, if Klaasen had have hit any of the six darts he had at double in it, would have made it 2-2 in sets). Dimitri's 8/11 against Dekker's 13/10, and like the first game it's a big chance for either player to push up towards the top 32 (albeit they're a bit further off than both West and Wattimena). I feel Dimitri has the edge, and having had that run in the World Series to finally do something on TV he might not be quite so nervous about reaching a key stage in a TV event, so I'll go for 1u van den Bergh 8/11.
Afternoon session is already underway so will be back later with more updates.
Briefly before I start, thanks to anyone viewing from Reddit, and thanks for the tip that Argos are selling some cheap Winmau darts that I've ordered, will see how they go.
Urgh, ugly day on the betting. I guess hope that if you followed me on the King bet that you were with a bookmaker that paid out if you're two sets up at any point? Can't really factor in someone's game disappearing quite as King's did, I think that just goes down as unfortunate, but give credit to Lerchbacher for stepping in and taking the chances that were given. The Cullen game sounded like a right cracker, but missing four match darts, oh my. Cullen had the draw open up and couldn't take the chance, which is unfortunate, a possible last 16 tie against Anderson would have been fun to watch.
Speaking of Anderson, how good was he? That second set in particular was spectacular. In that sort of form he's got to be a huge favourite to reach a minimum of a semi final - the only seed left in the eighth of his draw is Mark Webster, and Taylor showed nothing against Dobey that made us think that he'd be able to live with Gary in a best of nine set match. Smith looked OK in the prelim just based on the numbers (I didn't get back to a TV until the last match of the evening session) but simply couldn't score.
Dekker coming through against Klaasen is one that I hope you were on which salvaged something from the day from a betting perspective, and his match against Dimitri in round two should be a corker, that's one that I can see going a fair bit of distance if both retain their form and should be a highlight. The Thornton/Dolan/Ljubic combination was one that went kind of how I thought it would have done - Dolan looked pretty solid in the prelim game with Ljubic not offering the kind of scoring that's going to hack it at the worlds level, while Thornton brought the game that he's shown sporadically which proved to be enough, despite Dolan hitting several nice checkouts. That just leaves the van de Pas/West matchup, completing a horrible season for the Dutchman as his streak of third round appearances comes to a halt while West was able to get his first world championship win. Will he get a second? As we know his opponent, let's look at his game first.
Steve West v Jermaine Wattimena (afternoon session, Saturday 23rd)
Round 1 - West 3-1 vs van de Pas, Wattimena 3-2 vs Cullen
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - West 61.30%, Wattimena 50.83%
Matchplay to date - West 68.58%, Wattimena 43.70%
European Championship to date - West 71.69%, Wattimena 44.22%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 9.09% West 4-0, 35.47% West 4-1/4-2, 30.49% 3-3, 21.08% Wattimena 4-1/4-2, 3.87% Wattimena 4-0
Matchplay to date - 14.91% West 4-0, 44.62% West 4-1/4-2, 25.98% 3-3, 12.61% Wattimena 4-1/4-2, 1.88% Wattimena 4-0
European Championship to date - 15.99% West 4-0, 46.25% West 4-1/4-2, 24.98% 3-3, 11.21% Wattimena 4-1/4-2, 1.57% Wattimena 4-0
Interesting to see that West's figures get better the more recent and smaller a sample size we take, even after we remove the Matchplay where West was throwing some amazing stuff. It goes from West cleaning up before a deciding set less than twice as often to around five times as often, which is quite a big swing, and surprising given that the match has been set up in the markets as close to a coin flip, with West being the favourite at a 5/6 v 6/5 line. So we should pile on West? Let's look at some other things that might make our mind up:
- Both players are pushing to get into that top 32 elite tier, with West probably being a bit closer, it's a big psychological step, Wattimena certainly has more time on his hands so might not have quite so much pressure.
- The two players finished 5th and 6th on the Pro Tour rankings with just 500 quid between them.
- Their head to head record is one win a piece, both in early rounds of UK Open qualifiers, the first a West win in 2015, the second, oddly being exactly a year later, going to Wattimena.
- In their first round games, West was able to punch in more fifteen dart legs, seven to Jermaine's five (one of those being the key twelve dart leg to break back to 1-1 in the deciding set), but Jermaine was putting Cullen under more pressure, averaging 96 on the legs Cullen won in comparison to West's 90. This makes their orthodox averages quite similar.
- Their consistency scores from the previous round analysis are similar, West's average in losing legs being within two points of his winning average, while Wattimena's is within three points.
I think this has to go to Steve - 1u West 5/6. His numbers just look better, he's got a lot more stage experience, particularly this year, he's got that "never won at the worlds" monkey off his back.
(1) Michael van Gerwen v (32) James Wilson (evening session, Friday 22nd)
Round 1 - van Gerwen 3-1 vs Kist, Wilson 3-1 vs Ratajski
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - van Gerwen 83.24%, Wilson 27.22%
Matchplay to date - van Gerwen 71.14%, Wilson 41.29%
European Championship to date - van Gerwen 65.52%, Wilson 49.81%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 36.71% van Gerwen 4-0, 51.01% van Gerwen 4-1/4-2, 10.01% 3-3, 2.06% Wilson 4-1/4-2, 0.21% Wilson 4-0
Matchplay to date - 17.45% van Gerwen 4-0, 47.20% van Gerwen 4-1/4-2, 23.77% 3-3, 10.17% Wilson 4-1/4-2, 1.42% Wilson 4-0
European Championship to date - 10.82% van Gerwen 4-0, 39.12% van Gerwen 4-1/4-2, 29.83% 3-3, 17.73% Wilson 4-1/4-2, 2.95% Wilson 4-0
Now to a game where the bookies don't have it close at all. But weirdly, despite van Gerwen coming into form later in the season winning everything in sight, Wilson's chances based on my model seem to improve as the year goes on as well. This seems ridiculously counter-intuitive, and the 1/25 line that van Gerwen's currently add makes sense in the context of the all 2017 data set, but on the last couple of months data set, he's not even getting to winning half the time without needing a deciding set. That doesn't seem right. Let's look why, and there's one very, very obvious reason - sample size. Wilson's matches that are in my sample look as follows:
First round here - won 10 legs, 1 being a twelve darter, 7 being fifteen darters
First round at the Players Championship - won 5 legs, 2 being twelve darters
Grand Slam matches - won 12 legs, 3 being twelve darters, 7 being fifteen darters
That's a total of 27 legs won, 22% of them being in twelve darts or less and 74% of them being in fifteen darts or less. Repeated over a big sample and that is world class elite play. Can he? And is he putting in the sorts of numbers needed when he's not winning? Not really. When he's losing legs he's only averaging 86, and he has won only one more leg than he's lost. The model only considers the legs you've won, so you need to take care to look at what they're doing when players are losing as well. Wilson's had, on average, nearly 5 visits per leg lost. If he was at a level where we'd start thinking that 18/1 is a sensible bet, then he would have taken a few of those legs and actually won them.
Jan Dekker v Dimitri van den Bergh (afternoon session, Friday 22nd - nobody told me about this! I'm at work, bastard!)
Round 1 - Dekker 3-1 vs Klaasen, van den Bergh 3-1 vs Bunting (funny how everyone we're previewing here has lost a set, even the world champion)
Set winning chances on throw:
2017 to date - Dekker 48.41%, van den Bergh 65.33%
Matchplay to date - Dekker 20.49%, van den Bergh 87.84%
European Championship to date - Dekker 10.12%, van den Bergh 96.17%
Match score calculations:
2017 to date - 2.82% Dekker 4-0, 17.04% Dekker 4-1/4-2, 28.94% 3-3, 39.85% van den Bergh 4-1/4-2, 11.36% van den Bergh 4-0
Matchplay to date - 0.06% Dekker 4-0, 0.69% Dekker 4-1/4-2, 5.01% 3-3, 45.56% van den Bergh 4-1/4-2, 48.87% van den Bergh 4-0
European Championship to date - 0% Dekker 4-0, 0.02% Dekker 4-1/4-2, 0.49% 3-3, 24.76% van den Bergh 4-1/4-2, 74.72% van den Bergh 4-0
First things first, let's throw those last two sets of stats right out of the window. Dimitri has played four matches since the Matchplay which count in my stats - one loss on the European Tour where he lost 4-6 but hit two twelve darters, another loss in Europe where he lost 3-6 but hit two fifteen darters, his European Championship loss to Clayton where his only leg won was a fifteen darter, and that European Championship loss is the only other game that counts towards that last stat apart from his god mode antics against Bunting, so let's just look at the overall 2017 information and Dekker's information. Dekker's sample in that last data set is 40 legs, at a 10% clip in four visits and 50% in five visits - which is probably running a bit hot given his oft mentioned great doubling percentages which I kind of feel are unsustainable, drop some of those off and the four visit legs may turn into five, the five visit legs into six, or they may just turn into lost legs full stop. Over the whole sample, van den Bergh's now created a good edge for himself following that great first round performance - before then Dimitri was slightly over 50% on five visit kills compared to Dekker being bang on the line, Dimitri added ten legs in under fifteen darts including three legs in four visits - Dekker added two twelve darters but only four more legs in fifteen or less, with Klaasen allowing two legs in six visits and one in seven (which, if Klaasen had have hit any of the six darts he had at double in it, would have made it 2-2 in sets). Dimitri's 8/11 against Dekker's 13/10, and like the first game it's a big chance for either player to push up towards the top 32 (albeit they're a bit further off than both West and Wattimena). I feel Dimitri has the edge, and having had that run in the World Series to finally do something on TV he might not be quite so nervous about reaching a key stage in a TV event, so I'll go for 1u van den Bergh 8/11.
Afternoon session is already underway so will be back later with more updates.
Friday, 15 December 2017
World Championship day 2 thoughts
Few quick random thoughts on tonight's matches:
- Asada, first set in the prelim aside, looked really quite solid and you can see why he was able to come through the BDO system the last few years. It's pretty difficult given the travel for anyone from there to be able to even attempt to play the UK circuit other than the odd couple of weeks where there's events clustered together, but as he's still only in his 30's we should hopefully see him back in the future.
- Dobey, after a weak first couple of sets, looked to be somewhat back to form, just a pity that he let Taylor break in the fourth leg of the fourth set in sixteen darts. In fairness, even in the first two sets, he had left himself on a double after fifteen darts when he lost the leg on three occasions, so against someone a bit weaker, he could easily have nicked those.
- Taylor looked a bit edgy, but there's somewhat of whether he upped his game when he needed two. It's entirely possible that he had more in the tank if needed, slamming in the twelve darter to break in the last leg of the opening set was nice, and there weren't many legs where he wasn't close even when Dobey was taking them.
- Dimitri looked legit and had possibly his best performance on TV - three legs in twelve, every other leg in fifteen, over a 93 average in the legs Bunting won, and you have to think he's a big threat to either Klaasen or Dekker, whoever comes through. Bunting didn't play badly at all, but was really gifted the set he won and gifted the chance he had to hold out the opening set, apart from what van den Bergh gave him, he couldn't do much of his own at all.
- Cross looked legit there. Perhaps a touch nervy early, but powering through with four 180's in the last two legs of the match was impressive.
Double header tomorrow - while I won't be able to watch the afternoon session as football takes priority, I'm primarily interested to see which van de Pas shows up, whether it'll be the one that was looking good in the Grand Prix, or the one that has done little all year. Similar for West, if he brings his Matchplay game then we could be in for a treat. The remaining matches of that session look a bit dull, the evening seems better to see how Smith does in his PDC debut appearance, how Luke Humphries looks and adapts to a big stage environment, how Anderson is playing, and the two games in between those should be tasty enough affairs.
- Asada, first set in the prelim aside, looked really quite solid and you can see why he was able to come through the BDO system the last few years. It's pretty difficult given the travel for anyone from there to be able to even attempt to play the UK circuit other than the odd couple of weeks where there's events clustered together, but as he's still only in his 30's we should hopefully see him back in the future.
- Dobey, after a weak first couple of sets, looked to be somewhat back to form, just a pity that he let Taylor break in the fourth leg of the fourth set in sixteen darts. In fairness, even in the first two sets, he had left himself on a double after fifteen darts when he lost the leg on three occasions, so against someone a bit weaker, he could easily have nicked those.
- Taylor looked a bit edgy, but there's somewhat of whether he upped his game when he needed two. It's entirely possible that he had more in the tank if needed, slamming in the twelve darter to break in the last leg of the opening set was nice, and there weren't many legs where he wasn't close even when Dobey was taking them.
- Dimitri looked legit and had possibly his best performance on TV - three legs in twelve, every other leg in fifteen, over a 93 average in the legs Bunting won, and you have to think he's a big threat to either Klaasen or Dekker, whoever comes through. Bunting didn't play badly at all, but was really gifted the set he won and gifted the chance he had to hold out the opening set, apart from what van den Bergh gave him, he couldn't do much of his own at all.
- Cross looked legit there. Perhaps a touch nervy early, but powering through with four 180's in the last two legs of the match was impressive.
Double header tomorrow - while I won't be able to watch the afternoon session as football takes priority, I'm primarily interested to see which van de Pas shows up, whether it'll be the one that was looking good in the Grand Prix, or the one that has done little all year. Similar for West, if he brings his Matchplay game then we could be in for a treat. The remaining matches of that session look a bit dull, the evening seems better to see how Smith does in his PDC debut appearance, how Luke Humphries looks and adapts to a big stage environment, how Anderson is playing, and the two games in between those should be tasty enough affairs.
Thursday, 14 December 2017
Do you know why this blog is called Fire Rod Harrington?
Someone in the Sky studios (think it was Dave Clark) asks Rod, in the run up to the Gerwyn Price - Ted Evetts game about how the Development Tour is bringing players through.
Now, we'll ignore the fact that Evetts made it here on account of winning through the last gasp qualifier that is applicable for all main tour players, and is nothing to do with his form on the Development Tour (although he at least plays it and ended up fifth), but Rod then goes on to mention a few players, including Chris Dobey.
Here's a quiz for you - which is higher - the number of Development Tour events that Chris Dobey has played in his life, or the number of times that Harrington in his diatribe mentioned Luke Humphries, the winner of the tour that Clark has explicitly asked him about, which has got Humphries to this event and surely must have occurred to him in his research?
It's a tie. Zero.
Anyways, Price got us off to a winning start for the season, it seems as if Kist has shrugged off his injuries to some extent which is great to see and we hope he can have an injury free 2018 and try to push up to the top 21, Ratajski/Wilson was a decent gritty game where I think Wilson showed enough class to get through it, Beaton/O'Connor seemed awful, just seemed a quite underwhelming opening day of matches.
Now, we'll ignore the fact that Evetts made it here on account of winning through the last gasp qualifier that is applicable for all main tour players, and is nothing to do with his form on the Development Tour (although he at least plays it and ended up fifth), but Rod then goes on to mention a few players, including Chris Dobey.
Here's a quiz for you - which is higher - the number of Development Tour events that Chris Dobey has played in his life, or the number of times that Harrington in his diatribe mentioned Luke Humphries, the winner of the tour that Clark has explicitly asked him about, which has got Humphries to this event and surely must have occurred to him in his research?
It's a tie. Zero.
Anyways, Price got us off to a winning start for the season, it seems as if Kist has shrugged off his injuries to some extent which is great to see and we hope he can have an injury free 2018 and try to push up to the top 21, Ratajski/Wilson was a decent gritty game where I think Wilson showed enough class to get through it, Beaton/O'Connor seemed awful, just seemed a quite underwhelming opening day of matches.
Wednesday, 13 December 2017
World Championship - Round 1 and prelim bets
Still time to post up your fantasy lineups as we hit Dartsmas Eve, you've got a little less than 24 hours to prove (or otherwise) your knowledge of the darting world. The previews are all done, the talking is nearly over, the action is soon to begin, but where shall I be placing my money? In order of play, here's the all important FRH takes on the games:
Beaton/O'Connor - no bet, Beaton's installed as a favourite, but it's not by much and O'Connor very much has a chance in all aspects of the game.
Wilson/Ratajski - no bet, my stats can barely separate them and the line's the closest first round line to evens that there is, way too close to call.
van Gerwen/Kist - no bet, while I could just say a bunch of units on van Gerwen and print, it'd suck for him to tweak a shoulder/ankle etc, and who knows, Kist could suddenly recover and hit some Matchplay level form.
Price/Evetts - 1u Price 5/12, I think this is a big step up for Evetts, even if he is playing a lot better than the set winning lines I posted up earlier, say that Price is 70% to hold and Evetts is 40%, then Price still takes a 2-0 lead nearly half the time and Evetts rarely is able to grab the lead after two sets himself.
Asada/Mathers - no bet, I don't really have enough information on either to be making a judgment.
Bunting/van den Bergh - no bet, it's a similar sort of read to the Beaton match, Bunting should have enough but Dimitri troubles him often enough that there's little value.
Taylor/Dobey - 2u Taylor 1/6, Dobey simply isn't playing well enough to trouble Taylor, and we're being offered a fairly decent price compared to a lot of the big names in the first round.
Cross/prelim winner - no bet, it's 1/33.
Dolan/Ljubic - no bet, would ordinarily fancy a prelim qualifier from Europe at 4/1, but Ljubic dodged the good players in his prelim and Dolan's got more recent form.
van de Pas/West - no bet, line's about 60/40, seems bang on with both players between 50 and 60% to hold a set on their throw with Benito having the better numbers.
King/Lerchbacher - 1.5u King 3/10, Lerchbacher simply isn't in the same league and shouldn't be able to replicate the form he had in that one good event he had for long enough to trouble King.
Thornton/prelim winner - no bet, I think this should be a Thornton bet but it just seems so wrong to do so when he'll probably face a player that has at least regained form recently and won't help his rhythm.
Smith/Humphries - no bet, simply because I have no data on Humphries and he has at least shown on minor tours he can be trusted to be competent.
Cullen/Wattimena - 1u Cullen 2/5, he's progressed to a stage where he should defeat Wattimena more than enough times for this to be correct, Wattimena's a one in eight shot by my stats to hold both his sets on throw, and if he doesn't do that he only breaks the Cullen throw over a set one time in four, seems unlikely.
Klaasen/Dekker - 0.5u Dekker 19/10 - running the set winning percentages through, I've got it as Klaasen winning 3-0/3-1 only 50% more often than Dekker, that needs to be up at twice as often really, Dekker's hit form, Klaasen not so much and Dekker bosses the consistency.
Anderson/prelim winner - no bet, Anderson's just too short against a qualifier who should be competent.
Neyens/Lewis - no bet, I simply lack data on Neyens, Lewis should be better but not wins 75% of the time better.
Norris/Viljanen - 0.25u Viljanen 7/2, that's a big big price on someone who's been here before and has shown a decent game on stage once this year and a consistent level of play domestically all season long. It probably doesn't work that often, but this seems like more of a 25-30% chance than what the market suggests.
Anderson/Jacques - 1u Anderson 2/9, this is a huge, huge step up for Jacques against someone who likes this stage and has won a TV title this year, I can't see him scoring heavily enough to get home anywhere near often enough.
Clayton/prelim winner - no bet, I think there'd be enough uncertainty in a game against Lewis that I don't want to touch it.
Bruguier/Harris - no bet, almost seems like it's worth a nibble on Harris but two sets is no race at all and they're both on debut.
Wade/Brown - 0.25u Brown 7/2, I simply don't rate Wade, and while Brown's 6-0 loss the last time he played is a concern, and he's very inconsistent in comparison to Wade, he's done enough this year that makes me think he can get home at least one time in four.
Chisnall/van der Voort - no bet, the line is fairly close to what my numbers reckon, perhaps favouring Chisnall slightly, but there's enough possibility of Chisnall having one of those days where he misses doubles that I'll avoid it.
White/prelim winner - no bet, this should be comfortable enough for White, but Harris at least seems a competent operator and White may be under a touch of pressure after a middling season.
Leung/Lim - no bet, know fairly little about Kai and Lim's too short really.
Suljovic/Painter - 2u Suljovic 1/5, checked the set numbers against each other and Painter's not got enough game to make it home at the sort of rate he'd need to, he has at best around a 10% shot.
Gurney/Huybrechts - no bet, the figures say Huybrechts at 6's but the figures always seem to underestimate Gurney who has great consistency figures.
Webster/prelim winner - no bet, tempted to fire in on the underdog but avoiding the punt without more knowledge. May add something on in real time dependent on how the prelim looks.
Oreshkin/Münch - no bet, line is evens or there abouts and based on guesses of where they're at I couldn't make a convincing case either way.
Henderson/Kantele - no bet, Henderson should win this one fairly often but he's too short and I think there's enough variables that can go on that make this not worth betting.
van Barneveld/North - 2u van Barneveld 1/6, I just can't see how North brings his A-game to the stage and makes it stick for long enough against someone of Barney's quality.
Lewis/prelim winner - no bet, 1/16 is a bit too short although I can't see any sort of Lewis failure.
Zong/Smith - 1u Smith 1/5, only small as I don't know too much about these players but the Chinese qualifiers have been without exception awful and from what I have seen of the kid this doesn't look like it'll change.
Smith/Lennon - no bet, underdog stab at Lennon seems tempting but you can't even get 5/2, so the market seems to have reacted to him already.
Whitlock/Schindler - no bet, it's about a 75/25 line and I think Schindler can only nick this around 20% of the time so he's not quite there for me.
Pipe/prelim winner - no bet, Pipe's 1/7 which is too short against an unknown, and backing an underdog with limited information against a seasoned pro who's hit some form seems like a mistake even if we only need to hit one time in seven to break even.
Reyes/Alcinas - no bet, Alcinas is a tempting proposition only needing to hit 25% of the time to be right, but I just don't know quite how good his floor form is to know whether if he can translate it to the stage (which he hasn't so far) whether it's enough against Cristo.
Huybrechts/Richardson - 0.25u Richardson 16/5, Huybrechts has slipped up enough times in opening rounds of TV events in the past (remember Pallett) and Richardson's numbers aren't that distant that he can't win this 30% of the time given he has course and distance for big shocks here.
Webster/Petersen - 2u Webster 1/4, Petersen really shouldn't be here and hasn't shown enough this season that he can beat someone who's won a tour event this year 20% of the time.
Wright/Portela - no bet, not touching someone with health issues at 1/20.
That's your lot for the next week, there's a fair few more favourites that I thought I'd bet, but they all seem sensible enough to me.
Beaton/O'Connor - no bet, Beaton's installed as a favourite, but it's not by much and O'Connor very much has a chance in all aspects of the game.
Wilson/Ratajski - no bet, my stats can barely separate them and the line's the closest first round line to evens that there is, way too close to call.
van Gerwen/Kist - no bet, while I could just say a bunch of units on van Gerwen and print, it'd suck for him to tweak a shoulder/ankle etc, and who knows, Kist could suddenly recover and hit some Matchplay level form.
Price/Evetts - 1u Price 5/12, I think this is a big step up for Evetts, even if he is playing a lot better than the set winning lines I posted up earlier, say that Price is 70% to hold and Evetts is 40%, then Price still takes a 2-0 lead nearly half the time and Evetts rarely is able to grab the lead after two sets himself.
Asada/Mathers - no bet, I don't really have enough information on either to be making a judgment.
Bunting/van den Bergh - no bet, it's a similar sort of read to the Beaton match, Bunting should have enough but Dimitri troubles him often enough that there's little value.
Taylor/Dobey - 2u Taylor 1/6, Dobey simply isn't playing well enough to trouble Taylor, and we're being offered a fairly decent price compared to a lot of the big names in the first round.
Cross/prelim winner - no bet, it's 1/33.
Dolan/Ljubic - no bet, would ordinarily fancy a prelim qualifier from Europe at 4/1, but Ljubic dodged the good players in his prelim and Dolan's got more recent form.
van de Pas/West - no bet, line's about 60/40, seems bang on with both players between 50 and 60% to hold a set on their throw with Benito having the better numbers.
King/Lerchbacher - 1.5u King 3/10, Lerchbacher simply isn't in the same league and shouldn't be able to replicate the form he had in that one good event he had for long enough to trouble King.
Thornton/prelim winner - no bet, I think this should be a Thornton bet but it just seems so wrong to do so when he'll probably face a player that has at least regained form recently and won't help his rhythm.
Smith/Humphries - no bet, simply because I have no data on Humphries and he has at least shown on minor tours he can be trusted to be competent.
Cullen/Wattimena - 1u Cullen 2/5, he's progressed to a stage where he should defeat Wattimena more than enough times for this to be correct, Wattimena's a one in eight shot by my stats to hold both his sets on throw, and if he doesn't do that he only breaks the Cullen throw over a set one time in four, seems unlikely.
Klaasen/Dekker - 0.5u Dekker 19/10 - running the set winning percentages through, I've got it as Klaasen winning 3-0/3-1 only 50% more often than Dekker, that needs to be up at twice as often really, Dekker's hit form, Klaasen not so much and Dekker bosses the consistency.
Anderson/prelim winner - no bet, Anderson's just too short against a qualifier who should be competent.
Neyens/Lewis - no bet, I simply lack data on Neyens, Lewis should be better but not wins 75% of the time better.
Norris/Viljanen - 0.25u Viljanen 7/2, that's a big big price on someone who's been here before and has shown a decent game on stage once this year and a consistent level of play domestically all season long. It probably doesn't work that often, but this seems like more of a 25-30% chance than what the market suggests.
Anderson/Jacques - 1u Anderson 2/9, this is a huge, huge step up for Jacques against someone who likes this stage and has won a TV title this year, I can't see him scoring heavily enough to get home anywhere near often enough.
Clayton/prelim winner - no bet, I think there'd be enough uncertainty in a game against Lewis that I don't want to touch it.
Bruguier/Harris - no bet, almost seems like it's worth a nibble on Harris but two sets is no race at all and they're both on debut.
Wade/Brown - 0.25u Brown 7/2, I simply don't rate Wade, and while Brown's 6-0 loss the last time he played is a concern, and he's very inconsistent in comparison to Wade, he's done enough this year that makes me think he can get home at least one time in four.
Chisnall/van der Voort - no bet, the line is fairly close to what my numbers reckon, perhaps favouring Chisnall slightly, but there's enough possibility of Chisnall having one of those days where he misses doubles that I'll avoid it.
White/prelim winner - no bet, this should be comfortable enough for White, but Harris at least seems a competent operator and White may be under a touch of pressure after a middling season.
Leung/Lim - no bet, know fairly little about Kai and Lim's too short really.
Suljovic/Painter - 2u Suljovic 1/5, checked the set numbers against each other and Painter's not got enough game to make it home at the sort of rate he'd need to, he has at best around a 10% shot.
Gurney/Huybrechts - no bet, the figures say Huybrechts at 6's but the figures always seem to underestimate Gurney who has great consistency figures.
Webster/prelim winner - no bet, tempted to fire in on the underdog but avoiding the punt without more knowledge. May add something on in real time dependent on how the prelim looks.
Oreshkin/Münch - no bet, line is evens or there abouts and based on guesses of where they're at I couldn't make a convincing case either way.
Henderson/Kantele - no bet, Henderson should win this one fairly often but he's too short and I think there's enough variables that can go on that make this not worth betting.
van Barneveld/North - 2u van Barneveld 1/6, I just can't see how North brings his A-game to the stage and makes it stick for long enough against someone of Barney's quality.
Lewis/prelim winner - no bet, 1/16 is a bit too short although I can't see any sort of Lewis failure.
Zong/Smith - 1u Smith 1/5, only small as I don't know too much about these players but the Chinese qualifiers have been without exception awful and from what I have seen of the kid this doesn't look like it'll change.
Smith/Lennon - no bet, underdog stab at Lennon seems tempting but you can't even get 5/2, so the market seems to have reacted to him already.
Whitlock/Schindler - no bet, it's about a 75/25 line and I think Schindler can only nick this around 20% of the time so he's not quite there for me.
Pipe/prelim winner - no bet, Pipe's 1/7 which is too short against an unknown, and backing an underdog with limited information against a seasoned pro who's hit some form seems like a mistake even if we only need to hit one time in seven to break even.
Reyes/Alcinas - no bet, Alcinas is a tempting proposition only needing to hit 25% of the time to be right, but I just don't know quite how good his floor form is to know whether if he can translate it to the stage (which he hasn't so far) whether it's enough against Cristo.
Huybrechts/Richardson - 0.25u Richardson 16/5, Huybrechts has slipped up enough times in opening rounds of TV events in the past (remember Pallett) and Richardson's numbers aren't that distant that he can't win this 30% of the time given he has course and distance for big shocks here.
Webster/Petersen - 2u Webster 1/4, Petersen really shouldn't be here and hasn't shown enough this season that he can beat someone who's won a tour event this year 20% of the time.
Wright/Portela - no bet, not touching someone with health issues at 1/20.
That's your lot for the next week, there's a fair few more favourites that I thought I'd bet, but they all seem sensible enough to me.
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