Pretty decent day 1, Jeff Smith choking a huge lead aside, so we've clawed back what was lossed on ET6. Shoutout to Ricky Evans - winning 6-0? Against Huybrechts? In Belgium? Nice work, same to van Peer and Wayne Jones on getting the job done on the Challenge Tour. Quickly through day 2 picks now:
What's Mr. Chips doing? He's going for his wallet:
0.25u Gilding 4/6 vs Baetens - Baetens is pretty good, but from what I've seen I doubt he has the scoring to live with Gilding. It's moderately limited data on Andy but we're getting 72% for Goldfinger here. Even if we're overestimating by, say, 5%, it's still a fine bet.
0.1u Campbell 7/4 vs Cullen - We're getting 44% on Matt to nick this one. Instinctively this feels like a bit of an overestimate, but I don't see anything obviously crazy in a greater inspection of the data, he played fine yesterday, and as long as we're not overestimating enormously I think a small play is clearly warranted.
0.25u Anderson 4/5 vs Searle - Gary didn't need to do a great amount against Ratajski to win very comfortably (multiple six visit breaks isn't a great look for Krzysztof), but got the win and projects at near 65% against Ryan, who's doing OK but isn't really playing at quite as high a level as Gary is at the moment. It's only Hills that have this line, I wouldn't go with the 4/6 that's generally available.
0.25u Wright 4/5 vs Clemens - This seems like too much of an overreaction to Wright's apparent lack of form. I've got him as more than two in three, so an implied line of 55% is a great play. But what of form, you say? Filter it to legs played since the worlds, and he's still over two in three. 365 has the line, most have it at about 4/6 (which frankly still looks OK), we'll take the value here.
0.1u de Sousa 5/2 vs van Gerwen - I'm going to take a small flier here. Jose looked alright yesterday, clearly has enough of a peak game that he can trouble MvG, and the data I have shows him at 38%, which with a line implying 30% gives me just enough confidence to take a stab at this one.
It's good but it's not right:
Bellmont > Cross - Just a case of limited data, only having 50 winning legs on him. That's giving 30% and we're getting near 4/1, and his win yesterday was pretty good and a repeat level of performance could give Rob some issues, but I'm holding back given lack of data.
Heta > Mol - Hills have 3/10, which looks fine given that we have Damon at just under 85% to win this one, only issue that's stopping me from betting is that Mol may see this as a huge free hit given the nature of his win today, and outperform enough that he cuts down the edge enough where this isn't a play. It seems safe enough to put in an acca, but I'm just about holding off from making this an official play.
Schindler > Gurney - This appears very close, the bookies have this close to even with Martin being 10/11, I've got him a little bit better than that at a bit closer to 60% than 55%, but I'm going to hold off given Daryl's propensity to nick games this season.
van den Bergh > Smith - There might be a modicum of value on the home town hero here, 13/8 is available which implies he's got just under a 40% chance to win the game. I've got raw percentages at 41%. Throw in supportive home crowds and we can maybe tick it up a notch or two, wouldn't hate it if you went with Dimi in this one.
Rock > Dobey - The guy Chris played looked OK in flashes, he had a decent start but then just fell apart, Chris not needing to do a great deal to run off five of the last six legs (none of them fifteen darters). If you've got Betfred, then take their 5/6 if you want, otherwise I don't think there's quite enough to go with Josh here, I've got him at 62%, general 8/11 is not horrible but it's not quite enough.
Say what you see! Value? That's wrong I'm afraid:
Noppert v Evetts - Ted did what he needed to do yesterday, didn't play anywhere near the level that would be needed to really trouble Danny, we've got him at 25-30% to do so, hence with Noppie at 1/3 the line is looking pretty tight here.
Clayton v Barry - Not seeing much here. Was cool to see the random guy that Barry played qualify but as suspected he couldn't really get close and Keane only dropped one leg despite winning half the legs in at least seven visits. Keane's approaching 30% to win this one, Clayton is 2/5, line appears spot on.
Aspinall v Kleermaker - Another line that looks about right to start the evening session, like the last game of the afternoon session we've got the non-seed at a shade under 30%, Martijn got a solid performance against one of the worst draws he could have got, the line favours Aspinall a bit more than the previous one favours Clayton, but if there is an edge on the dog it's only by 1% or so on a random book nobody's heard of.
Humphries v Brooks - Bradley did well to get a very good win against a dangerous opponent in Veenstra, but Humphries is a different class again and Brooks barely has 20% chances in this one. 7/2 on the underdog looks alright.
Chisnall v Evans - Ricky got the standout win yesterday and played well, which is the only reason I'm not putting this one in the category above, as if it's clicking, maybe he has a touch more than the 24% chance I see against the guy getting all the cake on the Euro Tour this year, 4/11 on a 76% chance isn't a big deal but it would have been worth considering if Evans just scraped through.
van Duijvenbode v van Barneveld - Raymond did the job for us yesterday despite getting most of his legs won in six visits, will need to be a lot better today against Dirk, I've got Dirk slightly over 60%, he's 8/13, there's nothing to see here.
