Matchplay roundup

Well, congrats to Phil for an unbelievable result, a real swingy match early on with a great run whereby, between them, six of nine legs were won in twelve darts or less, but Taylor managed to pull away in the end and claim the title. Can't help but feel the seventeenth leg was key, at 10-6 down but having the throw, it's only two breaks with some time to work, but five scoring visits to leave only 126, having just three big trebles in those with plenty of darts drifting into the 5/1, seemed to end the game - Taylor then left tops after twelve and Wright couldn't leave better than 161 after nine, the inevitable happens and it's then a full three break lead, needing to get those back before Taylor holds six times, it's a race against time Wright really couldn't win.

Taylor's final performance was really very good - four out of eighteen legs were in twelve darts, three of those in that nine leg spurt of mutual quality, as well as one to hold in the fourth leg with Wright waiting on 84 after nine, a further nine legs were won in fifteen darts or better. In the legs that Wright won Taylor was averaging nearly 105, indicative of the continual pressure that Wright was under. Wright, to be fair, did get seven of his eight legs in fifteen or less, three of them being four turn wins, but this kind of level indicates the limitations of this model - Phil wouldn't exactly have let Peter claim many legs at all in six turns. Wright averaged 94.6 on the Taylor winning legs, which isn't a bad tally, but he wasn't allowed too many chances to convert the lesser pressure into legs won.

We now have a Pro Tour weekend next weekend up, but then we have a bit of a summer break until we head to the Netherlands at the start of September as the European Tour returns (there's exbos down under but who cares), then the schedule ramps up - another European event the week after, Champions League the week after, the European event I'm going to the week after that and then we're on to the Grand Prix after another couple of Pro Tour events.

Updated adjusted FRH rankings - will post a top 40 to cover the whole Matchplay field, up/downs only cover the top 20, although as the Matchplay field confirmed post also lists a top 40, you can work that out yourselves if you so desire:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Phil Taylor (UP 14)
5 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
6 Mensur Suljovic (DOWN 1)
7 Daryl Gurney (UP 2)
8 James Wade (DOWN 2)
9 Raymond van Barneveld (DOWN 2)
10 Adrian Lewis (UP 4)
11 Michael Smith (DOWN 3)
12 Simon Whitlock
13 Jelle Klaasen (DOWN 3)
14 Alan Norris (UP 2)
15 Ian White (DOWN 4)
16 Kim Huybrechts (DOWN 3)
17 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 2)
18 Gerwyn Price (DOWN 1)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
21 Darren Webster
22 Cristo Reyes
23 Robert Thornton
24 Stephen Bunting
25 Steve Beaton
26 Kyle Anderson
27 Rob Cross
28 Justin Pipe
29 Mark Webster
30 James Wilson
31 Steve West
32 Brendan Dolan
33 Terry Jenkins
34 Chris Dobey
35 Vincent van der Voort
36 Christian Kist
37 John Henderson
38 Robbie Green
39 Jonny Clayton
40 Jermaine Wattimena

With the downtime, I'm not sure what to cover. I want to, as mentioned earlier, combine winning and losing averages and get a combined figure, I also want to look in detail at the precarious position Terry Jenkins is re: Ally Pally qualification, but apart from that, suggestions?

Matchplay final preview

There's your stats. We've got the most decorated player in the history of the game, who's overcome the best player of all time, his biggest rival throughout his career, a two time world champion and local opponent and a confident rising talent, against the current UK Open champion, who's come through several tough scraps against in form players who are all playing the best they've ever done. Will we have a fairy tale ending to Phil Taylor's career as he claims a sixteenth Matchplay crown to go with his sixteen world titles, or will Peter Wright put to bed the disappointment of choking away the Premier League and claim the first real big major of his career (as, while Wright will have been delighted with the UK Open, the Matchplay is much bigger and had both Michael van Gerwen and Phil Taylor play in it)?

The current form points to Phil being a favourite, as the bookmakers suggest. The profile of his winning legs is incredibly similar to Wright's - there's just the two legs throughout the course of the tournament where Phil has finished in five turns as opposed to Wright's six, but there's a big advantage in the amount of pressure Phil's put on when the opponent has won his leg, over a six point difference. Over all data (my database stretches back to September), and not just this tournament, Phil still leads this category, but by a much smaller margin, 96.89 to 95.09.

Wright is going to have to do a few things in order to pull this one off. Firstly, he's going to need to limit the amount of chances he gives Taylor to break, and force him to throw a twelve darter to get it. As the stats indicate, Phil will be there or there abouts in four visits if Wright doesn't kill in five turns, piling on the leg upon leg pressure is going to be critically important. He gave Daryl Gurney ten opportunities to break with a fifteen dart leg, Gurney only took five. You'd imagine Taylor will take more than that. Secondly, he's going to have to keep things close and then hope Phil doesn't turn it on when it matters. Against the two Dutchmen, Phil wasn't pressured at all - Adie kept things close through to midway through the fourth mini session last night, but Taylor, from 10-8 up, then put in a burst of five straight legs including three four turn kills - two of them breaks, to finish the game as a contest. Adie might have got the last of those to get a break back if it took place earlier, Phil only holding in six turns, but Lewis couldn't leave a finish after five of his turns. Finally, he's going to have to bag any cheap break chances that are offered up - if Phil doesn't check in five turns, he's going to have to be there to do so himself. Gurney only offered up the three chances to break in more than fifteen darts (two taken), I can't imagine Phil leaving any more than this.

For Phil, he's going to have to keep doing what he has been doing, but realise that he's up against an opponent that won't buckle midway through a match - Wright isn't going to be afraid of him, and Wright has been able to take Phil down in big televised leg play events over the past couple of years - Phil couldn't get a win in the 2016 Premier League, losing one and drawing one, lost a decider in the World Series of Darts finals, lost the Grand Slam quarter final (in what's probably the best comparison, given that was a race to 16), and they split their Premier League games this year before Wright edged the semi final. Whether the pressure of this being a big major and a potential career defining victory (to date) for Wright will tell if it gets down to the wire is another question, and one Phil will have to ask. If he just keeps playing as he has been doing, I can't see that Wright will be able to accumulate a big enough lead where he can get close to the winning line and have a lot of room to play with - a situation where Wright needs one more leg with Taylor not even on double figures seems incredibly unlikely.

I can't recommend any bets in this one, if I was going to bet it would be on Wright, but I can't see there being enough edge to start punting, so I'll call it a day for gambling on this one with a small 0.38 unit profit for the tournament. Even the handicaps for fun don't look that enticing, only being offered evens on Wright +2.5 if we were to think it will be as close as it could be (can't believe that some bookies are offering a Wright +1.5 market, as if you'd ever take the added edge of getting paid if Phil wins a sudden death leg).

Note re: adjusted in the averages section for new readers - a turn is a turn. I don't give free bonus points if you finish in 13 darts as opposed to 15 darts. It's still five turns. Darts in this respect is like waiting for a bus - unless you're at a stop early enough to get the one before, you're still getting on the same bus. A thirteen darter against the throw is equally as worthless as a fifteen darter if the guy throwing first also finishes in five turns - unless you play well enough to finish in twelve darts instead, you're not getting the break.

Matchplay semi final preview

(3) Peter Wright (5/11, FRH live ranking: 2) v Daryl Gurney (2/1, FRH live ranking: 6)

Previous rounds:
Wright 10-8 v Wilson, 11-4 v Reyes, 16-12 v Webster
Gurney 11-9 v van de Pas, 11-9 v Anderson, 16-13 v Suljovic

Previous rounds performance:
Wright 7 twelve darters, 17 fifteen darters, 96.55 winning average, 91.55 losing average, 94.73 overall average
Gurney 5 twelve darters, 17 fifteen darters, 94.25 winning average, 95.69 losing average, 94.84 overall average

Winning percentage projections:
All data: Wright 80.3 - Gurney 19.7
Worlds onwards: Wright 79.9 - Gurney 20.3
After UK Open: Wright 76.0 - Gurney 24.0
Last two months: Wright 78.7 - Gurney 21.3
Just the Matchplay: Wright 72.2 - Gurney 27.8

Head to head: Wright leads 9-3
Last meeting: US Darts Masters (15/7/17), 8-7 Gurney
Last competitive meeting: Pro Tour (20/5/17), 6-3 Wright
Last competitive major meeting: UK Open (5/3/17), 11-5 Wright

First up we have a redo from the same stage in the UK Open, as the highest seeded player left in the tournament, Peter Wright, faces off against the form player of the moment, Daryl Gurney. As you can see by the stats above, this has the potential to be quite a close match between players who had similar quarter finals, in that they both pulled away from leg 21 onwards after being slightly behind in a tight tussle. Wright's finishing slightly quicker than Gurney, while Gurney is keeping better order in legs where he's not winning by a few points, making the combined averages close to identical. Over the span of all data I have, Gurney's finishing in four visits at a decent 11% clip, while finishing in five visits at just shy of 57% - which isn't too great, and given he's won 38 legs this tournament, 22/38 is more or less band on his historical average. Wright meanwhile is just shy of 15% of legs in four visits, and only fractions of a percentage point below 70% of legs in five visits - which is a big difference and the reason why the win chances are so far in favour of Wright. Given Gurney's better losing average, it's entirely possible that he gets in more spots to nick a leg in six visits to hold, but I can't see this being sustainable over the long haul - over all data, Wright and Gurney's losing averages are the other way around compared to just the Matchplay stats.

(4) Adrian Lewis (9/4, FRH live ranking: 9) v (8) Phil Taylor (2/5, FRH live ranking: 15)

Previous rounds:
Lewis 10-7 v Beaton, 11-8 v Cross, 16-13 v Norris
Taylor 10-5 v Price, 11-3 v van Barneveld, 16-6 v van Gerwen

Previous rounds performance:
Lewis 8 twelve darters, 23 fifteen darters, 100.20 winning average, 84.80 losing average, 93.76 overall average
Taylor 5 twelve darters, 20 fifteen darters, 96.55 winning average, 94.52 losing average, 96.04 overall average

Winning percentage projections:
All data: Lewis 66.6 - Taylor 33.4
Worlds onwards: Lewis 81.3 - Taylor 18.7
After UK Open: Lewis 69.7 - Taylor 30.3
Last two months: Lewis 85.8 - Taylor 14.2
Just the Matchplay: Lewis 89.0 - Taylor 11.0

Head to head: Taylor leads 53-17
Last meeting: Premier League (11/5/17), 7-5 Taylor
Last competitive meeting: Pro Tour (21/2/16), 6-2 Taylor
Last competitive major meeting: European Championship (1/11/15), 11-10 Lewis

The second semi final is a Stoke derby between Adrian Lewis, who's come through three tricky opponents, although the game against Norris could easily have been a lot more straight forward having held a 13-5 lead, against Phil Taylor, who aside from the first half of his game against Gerwyn Price, hasn't really been troubled despite facing the two greatest Dutch players of all time, running out a 27-9 winner combined against the two. Looking at the stats, Lewis is finishing his winning legs much, much better, taking an average of five visits to kill, which is a good bit better than Taylor, who's used exactly the same number of visits to finish his legs as Peter Wright. The issue is that Lewis's inconsistency means that he'll throw in plenty of duff legs which the other guy's going to take - ten points lower on the averages in the legs he's lost than Taylor, and that's over a much bigger sample size. This will come down to whether Lewis can clock in enough twelves on the Taylor throw and be close enough if Taylor doesn't finish in fifteen to counteract legs he might give away on his own. I think he will do so often enough for it to be a bet as mentioned previously.

van Gerwen in routine 16-6 wait what

Hmm, no idea what happened there. Obviously the markets are loving the fact that Phil managed to beat Michael van Gerwen, and ignoring that Adie outperformed Phil tonight, smashing in five twelve darters for fun compared to Phil's three, that they both finished 12/16 legs in fifteen darts or less, and in both previous rounds he's played better. Shoving everyone's results into the master computer puts Adie at a 46% chance to bink the whole thing, yet he's a huge underdog on the market. 0.5u Lewis 11/5 v Taylor. Still mostly in shock to be able to analyse more deeply than that to be quite honest, but Adie's been playing incredibly, foot off the gas towards the end of the Norris game excepted.

Matchplay quarter finals 1-2

Going to consider them both as one, as they played out fairly similarly - neither player able to get much of an advantage at all until the fourth break, when one player put on the afterburners and got a more or less uninterrupted string of legs to overcome what was an 11-9 deficit. Suljovic played fine, 8/12 legs in under fifteen darts, two of them being twelves, 96.5 on the Gurney winning throw - there were five legs where Suljovic had left himself an easy two darter (i.e. doesn't need a treble) on the Gurney throw after twelve, Gurney just kept cleaning up. Suljovic missed chances - the 24th leg where, on throw to lead 13-11, he only hits three trebles in 18 darts and doesn't leave a double, being the key one, but you'd have hoped he'd hit his favourite double to break in the last leg to break and pull it back to 15-14. Gurney's game wasn't spectacular - just the one twelve, on throw where a fifteen would have worked fine, and being able to get six legs in six visits, five holds and the key 24th leg mentioned earlier. Only 91 on the Suljovic throw - he did let Mensur hold in seven visits after only leaving 100 after six, and allowed a break in six as well despite leaving an out after 9 darts.

In the other game Wright managed four twelve darters, two of them important breaks, but also was allowed to win six legs in six visits, three of those breaks - the gong show of an opening leg, the seventeenth where Webster had four darts at double, and the 21st, which was a mutual doubling meltdown. Webster pinning chances in just two of those would make this a hugely different match, especially if it's the first two - 13-7 is a big deficit to claw back. Webster couldn't generate a single twelve darter, while he got nine of his twelve legs in fifteen darts, he'd like to have been able to convert his 90 average on the Wright throw into legs - considering in those three legs mentioned he missed twelve darts at double alone, that's not too terrible.

Wright/Gurney as a semi final should be one sided - the model has Wright at 80/20, while the odds are around 68/32. I looked at recent form a touch when looking at the Suljovic/Gurney game, and this one is interesting as they both had mediocre openers and have improved since then. Gurney's played one more leg with the overtime against Benito, and the only difference in speed of winning legs is that Wright's hit two more twelves (7-5) to Gurney's three more eighteens (15-12). Plug those figures in alone to the model, and it spits out 72/28 Wright, which is a fair bit closer. In this tournament, when scoring not on throw, there's less than half a point between them on average, Wright just ahead but both on 91. I can't really recommend a bet on this one.

One quick bet

1u Lewis 4/9 vs Norris, as stated in the previous post I think he's a substantial favourite vs Norris, the only worries are his back and how it will stand up over a long format as the quarter finals onwards are, but I would think that he should be dominant enough that it won't last too much longer than the Cross game and they should factor in breaks sensibly (i.e. not after 5, 10 and then cut away from the action if it's 10-10 and going to a tiebreak), I'd guess every five legs to the 20th, at which point I'd have guessed Lewis should be in the region of having 12-13 legs in the bank and not needing much more if they do play out from there. van Gerwen's 2/11, and I'm surprised he's that short against Phil, it's too short to consider a bet, Taylor may still have the game to get it to leg 20 even or no more than a couple of legs down and it could start getting twitchy, at least enough that I'll ignore the game.

Bunch of quick Matchplay postings

Tonight's session ran on for far too long and I'm exhausted, so I'm going to collate a bunch of stuff very quickly.

Chizzy/Norris saw Alan hit three twelve darters, and also win six legs in more than five visits - three of which were breaks, the perfect storm of playing well when it mattered (one twelve was to break to get within a leg of the match, another was on throw to close it) and Chisnall missing doubles. It's what I thought needed to happen, and it did. Lewis/Cross was high quality, Lewis winning every leg he won in under fifteen darts, limiting Cross's chances to break - after Cross broke in four visits to get it back on serve before the second break, there was a five leg spell where every leg was held in five visits - Lewis needing 130-140 if given a shot, Cross on 42 and 36, Lewis holding there was key as Cross pressured great, averaging 99 in losing legs. Taylor/Barney was a bit of a damp squib, Taylor holding in six visits three times, breaking in five visits five times - taking what was offered without really getting out of second gear, a couple better than Barney's neutral, while again he averaged 99 in Taylor's winning legs, this seems a touch misleading as it was due to quite a few missed doubles. van Gerwen/Whitlock was painful to watch, Whitlock getting his three legs in five visits but averaging 86 otherwise, van Gerwen not really being pressured, getting his normal two twelve darters but getting four legs in six visits isn't that clinical.

Updated winning percentages:

van Gerwen 63.14%
Lewis 17.39%
Wright 10.79%
Suljovic 4.53%
Taylor 2.69%
Webster 0.88%
Gurney 0.46%
Norris 0.12%

Now you might look at these and think "how the hell can Suljovic be nine times as likely as Gurney to win given Gurney's form" - well Suljovic is on form as well. I have him as a 71/29 favourite based on all stats. This dates back to September. If I filter on the worlds onwards, where Gurney made the quarters, it's 63/37 - still for Suljovic. If I filter from after when Gurney won his first title, it reverts to 74/26 to Suljovic. If I filter just since May, it's now 78/22 Suljovic. I won't go on filtering even smaller and smaller subsets, but if I filter on just the Matchplay, it's only 54/46 Gurney. I see little reason not to take 0.5u Suljovic 29/20 as Boyles seem oddly bullish on Gurney in comparison to everyone else. Wright I've got at 75/25, I don't think that this is worth a Webster bet even getting 5/1, it's somewhat unknown for him over this distance and Wright looked better in the previous round. If you want to have a micro punt, go ahead, I won't. For the top half, where there's barely odds available, I've got Lewis as a massively prohibitive favourite, he's playing that well that Norris is going to have to step up even more again - the only question is the back, but it didn't seem to bother him today, will probably back Lewis but not quite so strong as if I knew he was 100%. In the main event, I've got van Gerwen as almost as big a favourite as Lewis, at around a 7-1 advantage, so once odds mature I'll probably be taking some action on the Friday night.