Monday 28 May 2018

More on averages versus money earned

A quick one:

I've taken the average points per turn of everyone that's played at least three Players Championship events (didn't want outliers like Colin Osborne squashing the chart even more than it is on the lower end) and plotted them against the average money players have earned in the Players Championship series to date.

You'll note there's no Anderson or van Gerwen. I've omitted them as I needed to splice two charts together just to get it not quite so clustered as it already is. It's obviously too big to post as normal in the Blogger template so I've added it as a link (should be able to zoom it to about 1400x1400). Ando's on just short of £3.5k/tournament at just under 95 points per turn, van Gerwen's at over £7k/tournament on a shade under 96.5 points per turn.

There's some interesting things to note on this one. Firstly, while there's some obvious correlation between averaging and money earned, it's not the be all and end all - look at that cluster of Lennon/Nicholson/Searle at just over 92ppt and around £400 per tournament. They're all averaging more than Gerwyn Price, who's making more than a grand a tournament, and they're all making less than Benito van de Pas who's averaging over 8 points lower per turn. If you imagine a banana running from around the Part/Temple/Dudbridge section through to the Evans/Lowe/Price section capturing where the bulk of the players are, you can say anyone to the bottom right is playing better than their results suggest, and anyone to the upper left is running hot (relatively speaking). Anything above around 1k/tournament is almost certainly going to be affected by one or more very deep runs into a tournament so it makes sense to ignore them when looking for a trend curve.

Interesting to see several players not cashing once. Huckvale's only played three, which is fair enough, but Darbyshire's played 10 and Dootson and Groen have played all twelve and not won a single game. That's quite incredible given that Groen has previously qualified for the World Championship and Dootson's previously outright qualified to the money for the UK Open then made the last 16. The main three's results:

I don't know if I want Dootson to draw Groen in round one of the next Players Championship, or if we can get some sort of last longer betting going. Scary that Dootson got his tour card on day one, beating Harris (who's been playing great), Goldie (who was at least doing that earlier on), Pallett (who we all saw at the UK Open), Preston (who's won on the Challenge Tour this year) and then Aspinall to win the card. That's not a bad line up. Such a sharp contrast to Corey Cadby, who won the other half of the draw and has won almost twice as much in one tournament this year as Dootson has in his whole career.

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