Friday, 4 May 2018

Sindelfingen round 2

That wasn't too bad. Shepherd pulling the upset obviously helped, not overly pleased with Alcinas missing a match dart, but can't really complain too much. Let's see what we have in round 2:

White/Razma - Madars crept home in a game where neither player was really scoring at all, model reckons he's got a 30% shot but I'm really not seeing it just based on eye test, White is super consistent and Razma isn't and it should show.

Chisnall/Padgett - Padgett was OK but nothing special, it was just another case of Dimitri shitting the bed which he needs to take out of his game. 1/6 against 6/1, I've got Chizzy at 85%, no value.

Klaasen/Wattimena - Model reckons Klaasen 55/45, but Wattimena is a lot tighter and may be underrated, as the line is very close to what the model thinks I'll avoid this one as well.

Cullen/Schindler - First what the heck line of the day. Both players are doing 92/87/90 winning/losing/overall points per turn, model gives it as an 10/11 Cullen sort of line pre vig, Schindler is better than 2's in Germany and he won 6-0 in the first round, 0.25u Schindler 9/4, seems very easy.

Price/Noppert - Noppie came through a tough opponent in decent fashion, he should be a dog hereand there's probably minor underdog value, I'm just thinking there's a bit of wanting to show what he's about in Price that'll come through.

Smith/Monk - Smith wins comfortably, maybe even slightly more often than the 2/13 available, stick him as a banker in any accas and move on.

Huybrechts/Anderson - Market has it as a flip, model thinks Ando has a small edge, it's not big enough to bet.

Whitlock/Dekker - Dekker's just all over the place. No clue what he'll do next. There's probably a bit of value on him at 9/4 but I honestly can't trust him. If he did OK in round 1 then maybe but he was erratic then.

Gurney/Lewis - Lewis was really unconvincing against Bunse, but got home, so given that I'm not inclined to bet him at 12/5 despite the model thinking he's got a 40% shot, that seems false given the situation.

Webster/Marijanovic - Similar analysis to the above. Marijanovic got through, but didn't play too good, just got over what he needed to. He should beat Webster more than the line suggests over big data, over this weekend I don't think so.

King/Nicholson - Paul looked OK in round 1 and seems live against Mervyn if he can keep his double rate going as he didn't in his last Euro Tour outing, line looks pretty solid with Nicho in the high 30's range of percentage chance to get to Sunday.

Suljovic/Caven - Caven's not been good for a while now but the line is so far in favour of Suljovic that I can't even recommend Mensur for accas.

van Gerwen/Tabern - Rematch here from a few weeks ago where Alan offered some resistance, he's at about 12% on my projections so with us only getting 10/1 I'll pass.

Wright/Shepherd - While we've seen in the past that if Kirk can get through a round he can do enough to make a run, against Peter we've not got the price to bet him really, I have him at around 20% and I'd want a bit more than 11/2 to think about it.

Henderson/Wade - Seems weird for Wade to be the unseeded player, but whatever, the model has this incredibly tight with Wade being the tiny favourite but not even 53/47, the market is a lot more in favour of Wade, as he didn't play too spectacularly today in comparison to his season long form I'm going to have a nibble at 0.25u Henderson 17/10.

Cross/van der Voort - Vincent piled in some good arrows, but he'll need to do that and then some against the world champ, who at 2/9 is actually nearly worth backing, and should be safe for accumulators.

That's it for me until Sunday night, good luck ladies and gentlemen and everywhere in between.

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