Friday 11 May 2018

Zweite Zwolle Runde

Ja, es ist Deutsch I'm going back and forth I am bilingual! Anyway, less SFUR quotes, more analysis - pretty fortunate to be up today, as stated on Twitter claiming a profit for the Beaton win felt very dirty, and while Payne got there it was pretty fortunate, although there were a couple of legs he lost that were LOL that'd have put things to bed a lot earlier. So let's kick ahead with round two

Huybrechts/Jones - Wayne smacked up Jamie Lewis pretty convincingly, didn't see that coming, and he's still better than 2/1 against Kim Huybrechts? There's not as much of an edge as I'd have thought, with Jones only having about 37% equity when I'd have guessed up towards 40, but at the price offered with the way he played on Friday this seems good, 0.25u Jones 9/4.

Henderson/Richardson - Too many syllables there. Richardson got through but wasn't really that convincing, and Hendo should have enough here, with the model putting him above 70% of a chance. 0.25u Henderson 4/6.

Price/Horvat - Still severely lacking data on Dragutin, he was competent enough against Alcinas but Price is a step up in class, and I can't see value even being offered better than 3/1.

King/Joyce - Wow, Ryan made his game earlier a lot tougher than it needed to be. The model can't separate these two, and after today I'd think Joyce may be playing with some freedom given that he should have been out, so let's get on here, 0.25u Joyce 15/8.

Cullen/Wattimena - Could be explosive, could be ordinary. Who knows. I just know the model ranks Joe as a tiny bit better than a 2/1 favourite, as does the market, so let's hope Jermaine brings it and we are entertained.

White/Anderson - Could be one of the games of the round this. Kyle played very well in an opening round win over Christian Kist, and he'll need to keep it up against White. Model has this at around 4/3 in favour of White, which is near as damnit to the actual line. Avoiding but thinking someone will hit triple digits in averages.

Smith/Bunting - Stephen got through an easy round one but now faces an intra-St Helens smackdown against the Premier League semi-finalist. Looking at the projection which gave Smith a greater than 75% chance of advancing I'd have thought it'd be an automatic bet, then I saw the best price we were offered was 4/11, which has calmed me somewhat.

Whitlock/Dekker - Probably some value on Dekker here. I've got him at just short of 40% of a chance here, and as I think I've mentioned before his losing average is really close to his winning average so I think he's running a bit bad, so let's go with a bit of 0.25u Dekker 2/1.

Cross/Lennon - Steve's been close on a few occasions against bigger names but has never really managed to punch through and needed all 11 legs to get past Rowby in round 1. While I think that Lennon has slightly more chance than the market suggests, which offers him around a 25% shot, I'm not even getting him at 29% so I'll leave this one alone, and if he can get through, good luck to the lad.

Suljovic/Payne - Josh certainly didn't make it easy as there were numerous scrappy legs against Clayton, now he faces another European Tour winner in Mensur, and I think he's live again - 0.25u Payne 11/4.

Wright/Wilson - Peter's been playing some real solid stuff in these past weeks, then again, so has James. Lethal Biscuit took apart the Nordic qualifier fairly comfortably and looks to have much better chances than the line suggests, so 0.25u Wilson 29/10.

Klaasen/Ratajski - Jelle's still a seed, at least until the next tourney where I think he's dumped back to the qualifiers, but if it's not certain this game may accelerate it, the bookies can't slit them, but I can with the Pole having better than a 60% chance, 0.25u Ratajski 10/11.

Gurney/Reyes - Didn't see Reyes getting past Wade to be honest, should have trusted the model, oh well. Said model gives Cristo about a 31% chance, he's a fraction longer than 2/1, no value, next...

van Gerwen/Jenkins - Jenkins is technically a value bet, but if you want to put a bet on at only 8's when he's got an 18% chance against the best player in the world in the Netherlands you're a braver man than me.

Webster/Beaton - Steve got away with absolute murder against de Graaf, but he's here, model here has Webster as a small favourite, smaller than the market suggests but I'm not touching the Adonis with a twenty foot barge pole after today.

Seven bets today, one more than yesterday. Go forth and hopefully profit.

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