Sunday, 13 May 2018

Zwolle final day - what the hell was that day 2?

I guess this happens now and again when you bet quite a lot of underdogs (of the seven picks made, Joyce was the third shortest at 15/8), but it still sucks to some extent when just one of those hitting would leave you still up for the tournament. Still, down about 0.6 units over the course of 13 bets is nothing really (as an aside, I'm not sure how I missed analysing the Menzies match yesterday, for which I probably would have tipped Cameron and it'd all have been fine, oh well.

A brief post mortem seems fine, Jones missed some doubles (five in leg 2 to equalise, two plus one at the bull in the final leg to keep the game alive) but Kim only gave him one chance at a break (in leg 5, but Jones couldn't manage more than two big trebles in fifteen darts so wasn't close), so that's probably losing regardless. Hendo had a great start - hold in five visits then leave 24 after twelve with Richardson on a three darter, miss three clear, forget how to score in the next and get broken, miss four more darts at double for parity in the fourth, and then he can't do much else but fails to extend the game in the last leg missing five more darts at double. Joyce did fine once Mervyn stopped being unplayable in taking a 4-0 lead, although not keeping closer order in leg 10 cost him the match, there's no point hitting a 180 if at that stage your opponent has already been allowed five match darts. Dekker game was similar, Whitlock played really well for four legs to put him in too much of a hole, he claws it back but scoring deserts him in leg 9, and then he misses a couple of darts in leg 10 to force a decider where he'd have the throw. Payne clearly looked to be a good value bet, getting to 4-2 up, and then punching through with a break after being clawed back to 4-4, he just then couldn't slot in the fifteen dart leg which would have won him the match in leg 10, he put the pressure on in leg 11 leaving tops after four visits but Mensur held his nerve. Wright simply offered Wilson no chances to break without something special and slotted in an eleven darter on the Wilson throw so nothing really doing there.

Today we've got eight matches, here's the image that I already posted on Twitter indicating win chances:


The colour coding, while a bit too yellow, should give you some indication as to who's going to win this event, which is conveniently being held in the Netherlands, let's look at the odds:

Lennon (10/11) v Richardson (11/10) - Lennon reached the final day after Rob Cross gave him a bye (illness per Twitter), so whether that's disrupted his rhythm I don't know, but he's through to this stage of the Euro Tour for the first time, and will face Richardson, who took what he was given against Henderson. Richardson still doesn't seem convincing and I really don't think this is as near to a flip as the bookmakers suggest, so 0.25u Lennon 10/11, would probably have gone stronger if I'd have seen Lennon play yesterday and not get a break. He was good against Rowby at least.

Suljovic (8/11) v Whitlock (6/5) - Was surprised to see the master computer throw this one up as being so close, as two players who I bet against in the first round came through against younger talents. It's a big shot for either of these with an unseeded opponent awaiting in the quarters, the line looks pretty damn good if you adjust for Mensur's consistency - both average 92 points a turn in winning legs, hence the master computer reckoning this should be close, but Mensur's 95 average when losing is over eight points better than Simon's.

Wattimena (6/5) v Huybrechts (8/11) - Kim didn't offer an off-game Wayne Jones much at all, while Jermaine was averaging close to a ton against Joe Cullen until a 21 dart last leg dragged things down a tad. There's likely some small value on Kim, but as he's done nothing in Europe all year and is in Jermaine's back yard, coupled with Wattimena being a bit more consistent (his losing average is the same as Kim's to within a third of a point, whereas Kim is a couple of points ahead when winning) I think that can be tightened up a bit, or at least enough where I can't see enough edge to punt.

Wright (2/5) v Price (9/4) - Price dodged a match dart in a game where he looked pretty good up until 5-3 and just fell over the line, Wright as we mentioned earlier was solid against Wilson and should come in as the favourite to win this half - if he can get through Gerwyn. Price, a finalist on the European Tour just last month, has been playing much better of late and I don't think there's as much of a gap in the quality of the players as the line suggests, so I'm going to take the Welshman here, 0.25u Price 9/4, and hope that yesterday was the bad game which he got through and he'll up things today.

Bunting (8/15) v Ratajski (6/4) - Stephen looked really good against Smith, rolling him 6-0 in a game where he was averaging 113 until the final leg, sure Smith wasn't well but even a Smith firing on all cylinders couldn't compete with that. Krzysztof came from two down against Jelle Klaasen to win 6-2, could easily have been 6-1, with a string of fifteen dart legs or there abouts that didn't offer the Dutchman much. Bunting I think is being overvalued on the back of yesterday, over the long haul Ratajski's been playing the better darts, even if we factor in that Bunting played like peak Bunting yesterday and that Bunting is a lot better on the consistency scores than the Pole, I can't see how I can get this to anything better than a coin flip, and you take 0.25u Ratajski 6/4 in those circumstances.

Gurney (1/2) v King (19/10) - Daryl had a very good performance against a slightly resurgent Reyes yesterday, getting out to a lead with some superb play and it was only Reyes playing excellently as well that kept things close, Gurney didn't drop as he averaged 102 in victory. King flew out of the blocks and just held on to get over the line against Joyce, but I can't see a repeat here. Graphic above says 65/35 in favour of the Irishman, which looks more or less spot on with the line so no bets here.

Menzies (6/4) v Anderson (8/13) - Another two unseeded players meeting here in what should be an effective final unless Webster pulls out a special, Kyle has come through Kist and White in two games where he's been just shy of the three figure average, while Cameron took care of Munch easily before putting in a professional display to outduel Dave Chinsall in round 2. Menzies might be slight value, and may be a touch underrated on account of him not having a tour card, but I can't bet on him - Anderson has put in two solid performances, and more importantly has been to this stage of a PDC event many times before, having Menzies at a 44% chance and being offered 40% odds doesn't seem too great in context. Anderson's also probably underrated by the master computer, Cameron's scoring when he's lost legs is a fair bit below when he's winning.

van Gerwen (1/9) v Webster (8/1) - Darren has the game to be able to do this, but I don't think I can bet here. He had a couple of dodgy legs against Beaton yesterday which I don't think he can afford, and it's in the Netherlands in an event where Michael is going for a fifth straight title. If van Gerwen hadn't just won his first game in a whitewash with five very solid legs (leg 6 was a trainwreck but we'll ignore that) and also played what's likely his best tournament ever the previous weekend, I could maybe make an argument, but this looks solidly a no bet.

Probably no quarter final action today, will likely head to watch the Premier League final day, but the projections for everything have been posted above, so use them at your peril.

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