Thursday, 10 May 2018

Zwolle betting analysis

So our qualifiers were mostly who we thought they would be - Wattimena and Dekker got there, but Kist and de Graaf joined them, which are of moderate surprises, but if Kist is over the issues he had at the back of last season, and if de Graaf was having a hot run as we know he can, then it's not too crazy. Lines are out so let's have a look at what to recommend, in match order:

Joyce/Rosenauer - Royce is huge odds on as you would expect, with no info whatsoever on Rosenauer I can't recommend a bet.

Alcinas/Horvat - This comes in fairly close to evens with Alcinas being a marginal favourite. Dragutin didn't play too badly last time out and can certainly compete with Antonio but there's not enough information to consider a bet here.

Richardson/Cullen - Cullen comes in as the dog, which I don't find surprising given the relative exposure of each player, but last year's Tom Kirby finalist, a tour card quarter finalist, a Challenge Tour winner and with a win on the European Tour in the last year is formidable enough, Richardson's really done nothing since the worlds - 0.25u Cullen 13/8.

Huckvale/Wattimena - Sure it's in the Netherlands, but this is much, much closer to evens than the market suggests as detailed in the previous post. Always a bit nervy to fire on someone on debut, and Jermaine's been pretty good in getting out of the first round, but Adam won a title literally last weekend - 0.25u Huckvale 31/10.

Jones/Lewis - The quarter finalist from last weekend is big odds on, it's probably a bit too big, but I don't see overwhelming value in punting on Wayne here at 11/4.

Engstrom/Wilson - Line is giving it 80/20 Wilson which seems fair enough, James has been doing well and while I don't think Johan will be a cakewalk, I can't recommend a punt either way given the lack of knowledge.

Lennon/Rodriguez - Was thinking this to be quite close in favour of Steve, line does in fact make Steve a favourite at more or less the expected price so no value in this whatsoever.

Kist/Anderson - Market puts this as 75/25 Anderson, I had Kyle at not quite that short but that was against a projected opponent of van der Voort, so let's plug Christian into the master computer and see what's doing... it thinks 80/20. Hard to suggest a bet on Kyle, Kist has won a total of two grand since the worlds (excluding the grand here) but if he's come through the qualifier he may be playing better right now than the record suggests.

Menzies/Munch - Now we've got a bit more information here, the edge seems kind of similar to the previous game. Cameron's looked fairly comfortable on this sort of stage, so let's go with 0.5u Menzies 4/9.

de Decker/Jenkins - Could be a little bit of value on Terry here, I'm projecting him at very slightly north of 65%, so as we can get better than 60% value I think we should go with it, 0.25u Jenkins 8/11.

de Graaf/Beaton - Bookies have this really even - I thought it'd be like this if Noppie came through, but he hasn't, I'm getting Steve at up in the very high fifties in percentage win chance, plus he's a lot more consistent, it's not like Jeffrey who can let the opponent break him in 20 darts, then go 140-140-140-81 out, then get broken in 20 darts again as if nothing has happened. Beaton's had a pretty good record at not losing in round 1 on the floor this year so 0.25u Beaton 4/5, any shorter and I wouldn't touch it though.

Müller/Bunting - Steve's 1/7, this seems fine to use as a banker in your accas but without seeing more of Müller away from TV I don't know enough about his game and if he'll improve at all after having made his debut last time.

Payne/Clayton - Johnny's understandably a favourite, but this is really a bit too short, we're getting a very good price on the world youth finalist so let's go 0.25u Payne 11/5.

Evans/Ratajski - Line here seems pretty much spot on - I had Ricky as a little better than a 40% shot and he's 11/8, so no bets here, will just look to catch what should be a quick, quality game.

Dekker/Lewis - Don't think Dekker is quite long enough to bet here with Lewis at 4/11. If I knew a bit more about Adie's health (with him having withdrawn last week) then I might go for the underdog, but I'll avoid - betting on Dekker matches when the opponent also has intangibles in play seems like a route straight to the nuthouse.

Wade/Reyes - Wade correctly a solid favourite, there's probably a bit of value on Reyes at 12/5 but he's just done so little for so long, and Wade in this form is exactly who I don't want him to face.

That's your lot, six bets for you all to get your teeth in to.

No comments:

Post a comment