Saturday, 23 June 2018

Copenhagen day 2 bets

Bad day yesterday, purely down to Dobey - then again, Lynn killed four out of his five legs on throw in fifteen darts or less which is a pretty good standard which didn't leave Dobey much margin for error at all. Chris was able to hold his throw all but one time, that being the last leg where he threw eighteen darts, not one being at a double, which isn't going to cut it. Not going to complain about Mansell missing match darts as Jelle shouldn't have let him get those in the first place, running four straight legs to go from 1-3 to 5-3 before missing eight match darts of his own. O'Connor's was a deciding leg as well, it's amazing how, when 5-3 down, you go out in twelve darts, go out in fifteen with a 148 out, and then none of your first twelve darts in the decider hit a big treble. Oh well.

Elsewhere, don't know what was up with de Zwaan in getting bagelled by Razma with a 70-something average, the qualifiers actually did OK, Nilsson notably getting in another swingy match, leading 4-0 before missing three darts at D16 in the fifth and not getting another dart at double in the match, quite a few other matches went 6-4 or 6-5 so some decent value for the crowd.

Today the seeds come in, I've not yet had the time to put yesterday's into the master computer but let's see what it throws up in terms of bets:

Hendo/Dolan's listed as a flip, I've got it as about 60/40 to the Scot, Dolan got through a tough opponent in Schindler yesterday but didn't do anything to make me think he's playing miles better than his historical average, so 0.25u Henderson 10/11. Cullen/Razma's hugely in Cullen's favour, but I think Madars is live if he plays anything like he did yesterday. His win against de Zwaan isn't in the database but he's up at around a three in eight shot without that, so with the odds we're given it's a play, 0.25u Razma 5/2, I can't filter just on the Euro Tour where Cullen's doing generally better, but I'd rather have the bigger data set to work with. Price/Klaasen I'm not touching with Price's injury and Klaasen's swingy nature. Clayton/Labanauskas should be a good one, Darius coming through Richard North in a game that went all the way, a line of 8/15 Clayton looks close enough, I've not got a huge sample on Labanauskas and his stats may indicate a bet, but I'll pass because of the sampling issue.

Wade/Rodriguez is very much in favour of the Machine, there might even be tiny value on James but it's not enough to really recommend as a bet, if you want to stick it in an accumulator or as a banker in some perms then it seems fine. Webster/Reyes looks to be priced very close to spot on with Webster around a 60/40 favourite, no real value here. Whitlock/Wattimena is close to a flip on the market with the Aussie being the right side of the coin, I touched on this one in the preview show and it kind of agrees with my analysis, if you must bet more then decide whether you want to go with the form being temporary or the class being permanent, other cliches available on request. Final game of the afternoon session is Bunting/Jacques, Peter getting through a tricky tie against Paul Nicholson, one break in a trainwreck fifth leg for Jacques being the only difference between the two. Market has Bunting at about 70/30 which seems way, way too short, Bunting isn't really that much better than Nicholson at this present time so 0.25u Jacques 9/4, it's one where I'd expect Jacques to lose but only about 60% of the time, so that price looks good.

Evening session kicks off with King/Hopp, bookies have it even, numbers of all year say King 60/40, if I filter down to April it becomes a lot closer, I do think this'll be too hard to separate so I won't try to. Next up is Suljovic/Joyce, Joyce is out at 3/1 which I think is really disrespectful, Suljovic's points per turn is still higher when losing than winning so the master computer will be underrating him, but it's giving Joyce a 42% shot here. That's a lot more than 25% and no reasonable adjustments will make this anything other than a bet, 0.25u Joyce 3/1. It's not like he didn't easily beat a winner on the Pro Tour yesterday or anything. Wright/Lynn is huge odds on, can't see Lynn being able to do what he did yesterday again against a higher calibre opponent, stick Wright in as a banker but 1/8 isn't enticing in a short race. Final game of the first half of the session is the highlight in Smith/Lewis. Bookies are thinking Smith 55/45, this could be a Smith bet. I'm getting him up just north of 60%. Lewis didn't do anything yesterday, sure he easily took care of Evetts but neither of them managed to win a leg in five turns. Not once! Let's go with it, 0.25u Smith 4/5.

Cross/Beaton is next up, Steve was pretty good in disposing of Adam Huckvale yesterday, getting 4-0 up, leaving tops after twelve in the next, Adam got a couple back but Steve finished in style with a four visit kill to ice the game. Beaton is probably technical value at 9/2 but I'm not feeling it. Gurney/Evans is around the same line as Suljovic/Joyce, and it's one I highlighted on Thursday as a potential Evans bet, and it is. He can't afford to go 4-0 down again, but this should be nearer a 4/9-2/1 sort of match, 0.25u Evans 3/1. van Gerwen/Taylor should be LOL, I mean it's technically a Taylor bet but not a chance in hell I'm going for it. I've got Taylor at around evens to win legs on his throw, he'll get three shots at it minimum, and Taylor +4.5 is around evens. Maybe worth a shot? Probably not. Don't touch 6-0 van Gerwen though, that's horrible value. Last is White/West, the bookies have this really close at 4/5 - 5/4, I think we can go on Ian here, he's above 60% on the predictor and West didn't play at his best against Laursen, although it was good enough to win, so 0.25u White 4/5.

Four biggish underdog shots there. Bear in mind that just one of them hitting will get you very close to break even if not outright break even on those bets. Be back later with a review of today's play.

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