Thursday 7 June 2018

The second best film of all time

Welcome to the Rock!

Draw is out for Gibraltar, let's look down it bit by bit, I'm not even going to consider looking at the home nation qualifiers as they'll either get pummelled (anyone that isn't Schnier) or they're facing someone with no real reads (Schnier), so let's go:

van Gerwen v Bates/van der Voort - Bunting v Boulton/Edhouse: While Bunting's shown some signs of life recently, a match against van Gerwen still rates to be a 5-1 preposition. What of the first round games? Barrie/Vinnie actually rates to be quite close, oddly enough - Bates is on very limited information, and what information we have says he's wildly inconsistent, but this sort of thing in a short race looks tasty, 0.1u Bates 18/5. Boulton/Edhouse is on a knife edge, Boulton being such a tiny favourite in the model that he's not even at 52%, with the market giving it very close to evens each way and Andy being the one that doesn't quite get there, I'm happy to avoid this one.

Clayton v Schnier/HNQ3 - White v Dudbridge/Hopp - Schnier wasn't terrible the one time we saw him this year, so I'll think he'll beat whoever the HNQ is, but either's going to lose to the Ferret. Dudbridge/Hopp is classic old v new, much as I want Flash to cause the upset, I really can't see it, his game really isn't that good and Hopp rates to claim this three out of four times. As Hopp is 1/4 best price, I see no value here whatsoever.

Gurney v Dolan/Wilson - Webster v Alcinas/West - Six proper players here. Dolan will be looking to win to cause some intra-World Cup team violence, but it's a tough ask against Wilson, who's been getting it quietly and should have more chances than the market suggests, 0.25u Wilson 4/6, don't think it's quite a 1/2 game but there's enough edge here. Alcinas/West sees two defeated last 16 worlds contenders collide, and I think the market's favouring West a bit too much here. I've got Antonio with more than a 40% shot, so 0.25u Alcinas 15/8 looks decent to me, a similar sort of edge to the other first round game here.

Cross v Thornton/Reyes - Whitlock v Huckvale/Burnett - Some more good games here, Thornton against Reyes sees a classic UK against European qualifier, both players have been struggling for a while now, both players have always been inconsistent, so I don't really want to bet this unless the model says I have a big edge - and thankfully it doesn't, Reyes at 8/11 where I've got him at 58% is an easy leave. Huckvale/Burnett is a game between two players at opposite ends of their careers (although Burnett clearly isn't done, and Huckvale's certainly been around for a while), model has this as a coinflip. Huckvale is 6/4 - he's no mug and will have his chances, Burnett's not been playing bad but this looks like a play - 0.25u Huckvale 6/4.

M Smith v Wattimena/HNQ4 - Price v Padgett/de Decker - Won't analyse the first bit as Smith'll be a big favourite in round 2, Wattimena the same in round 1, move on. Padgett against de Decker is a game between two players most don't know a lot about, de Decker's trying to rebuild having lost his tour card but has four Development Tour titles, while Padgett has been in and around the scene for around a decade, not really doing much but having the odd spurt at the UK Open and making the worlds once. We don't have a huge amount of data for either, both at around 100 legs played, but the model's reckoning de Decker has a 60% shot, so 0.25u de Decker 5/6.

Cullen v de Graaf/Labanauskas - Chisnall v Nicholson/HNQ1 - Assuming Paul gets through round 1, that could be an interesting round 2 game, the Asset isn't playing badly at all, and reckons he can beat Chisnall one time in three - if Dave throws some of the junk he did in the World Cup that's believable. On the other side we've got an intra-Europe game, Darius fresh off the World Trophy, while Jeffrey, since making the worlds in 2017 if I remember rightly as one of the top 4 Euros not otherwise qualified, hasn't done much of anything since then and this is just his second appearance on the Euro Tour this year, having got through the home nation qualifier in Zwolle. Market has that tight, model has it tight, ignoring it.

Suljovic v A Lewis/HNQ2 - Wade v J Lewis/R Smith - First round game for Adie will be LOL, but the second round game will be great - model favours Lewis 5/4 but model doesn't recognise that Suljovic has been running bad and averages more when losing than winning. Or that he's just won a non-ranking title. Other pod here looks alright, and gives us a betting spot - Jamie's the favourite and rightly so, but he's far too big of a favourite, since the worlds he's not really backed it up. Model reckons that Smith gets home 40% of the time, which makes 0.25u Smith 4/1 look real good. If that doesn't work we get what looks close to a coinflip in round 2.

Wright v Ratajski/Barnard - King v Dobey/Lennon - Ran the Ratasjki line earlier and it looks OK, Barnard's been playing well and has chances but only about the one in three that the bookies reckon. Either player against Wright should be fun. Dobey/Lennon could be a thriller which the bookies really can't separate, I'm getting Dobey with just about enough of an edge to bet, 0.25u Dobey 20/21, it's not that far off but I've got him above 56% which, even factoring in Lennon's new confidence on the European stage, should be enough.

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