Saturday 9 June 2018

Gibraltar day 2

A bit late to the party today, I blame my local for putting on a decent beer for a change, it's not my fault for drinking it, not at all. I've not yet got yesterday's results into the master computer, which were pretty good betting wise, mainly because we pinned that big outside shot on Ross Smith, so where it may matter and there's not a huge sample size I'll make a note and play it safer. Don't think there was a huge amount of value on Bunting/Boulton which is going on right now, maybe an outside play on Boulton, but probably not.

Price/de Decker - Gerwyn should take this, I've got this as a little better than 3-1 in the Welshman's favour, we're offered 5/12 which might be useful, but we don't have a huge amount of info on Mike and he did slot two twelve darters in, which might be enough to make it a no bet, so I'll no bet this one. Doubt I finish writing up by the time Bunting's done so wouldn't get on if I wanted to.

Webster/West - Bookies have this pretty close with Webster having a small edge, I've got it as the same at not even 55% Webster, so no bet again.

Wade/Smith - Smith's longer than 3/1 again, you'd have thought they might have learned. Smith's at over 250 legs played this year so not a small sample, yesterday's result may improve the percentages slightly having hit a twelve dart leg, master computer gives him 38% which looks to be enough to fire again - 0.25u Smith 10/3.

Whitlock/Huckvale - Similar line to the above game. Don't think that we have as much edge though, Adam's just shy of 200 legs and it's giving him just less than a one in three shot. Yesterday's games shouldn't affect the stats much, so I think there's just enough room for a small play - 0.1u Huckvale 7/2.

Clayton/Schnier - Got to be a long time since someone won 6-2 with a sub-80 average, sure Asquez was offering no help but that wouldn't have stopped Schnier finishing quickly if he could. Should be a canter for Clayton but 1/7 isn't inviting.

White/Hopp - Hopp steamrollerd Dudbridge 6-0 yesterday, getting one leg in four visits and another three in five, not bad, but we have enough on Hopp that it's not going to increase his winning chances significantly, and they're nowhere near high enough to not bet on White who continues to be underrated in the market - 0.25u White 5/7.

Gurney/Dolan - Gurney's been given better than a 75% chance in the market today. That looks close to right, I've not quite got him up there so if you like an underdog play and liked the look of Brendan yesterday be my guest, I didn't so no bet.

Cullen/Labanauskas - Joe's been doing well in Europe but badly in the Players Championships, Darius edged past de Graaf in a decent encounter, including back to back 11 darters. We can get 9/5 on Darius, and while he's not got a huge sample and adding yesterday's should help, the computer's only giving him a one in three shot as it is, so I can't see it going up enough to give reasonable value.

Smith/Wattimena - Jermaine easily dealt with the interesting challenge of Tony Dawkins, and his opponent today is at the opposite end of the spectrum. I'm getting Smith at over 80% to claim this one, Jermaine's winning a lot of legs and getting decent results, but he's not winning legs quickly - only 45% of won legs are within fifteen darts, which Smith should punish - 0.5u Smith 2/7.

Cross/Reyes - Cross still hasn't won an event this year, and starts off against Cristo, who threw away a 4-1 lead against Thornton but came back from 5-4 down to advance. There might be really tiny underdog value on Cristo at longer than 4/1 but I'm just not feeling his ability to do it against someone as solid as Rob is.

van Gerwen/van der Voort - Vincent's never winning this one ever, and is on a 1-13 streak against the world number one, some of those losses being very one sided. Just stick Michael in as a banker and move on.

Chisnall/Nicholson - Dave had clear problems with his game at the World Cup, and won't want to be facing Paul, who's quietly built up a solid season statistically without any huge results to show for it, I would have thought this would be a Nicho bet, but only getting 5/2 isn't really enough, I've got Dave winning two out of three so I'd have liked a bit more edge. If you see it lengthening on Nicho then fire but if anything the market is going the other way.

Suljovic/Lewis - Huge clash here, and it's the sort of one that Adie needs to be winning if we're going to start to take him seriously again, I've got this as Adie winning a close one, around 55/45, and the market has it the other way around, but the model is still underrating Mensur a bit, with his losing average still above his winning average, and it's not going to take into account he'll be confident after his win in Gelsenkirchen, so I'm happy to leave this one alone.

King/Dobey - Bookies have this as a flip, oh my. I'd have thought King would be a favourite as he's not exactly playing terribly, at least in Europe, then I could bet Dobey easily, but at 10/11 Dobey I'm not really fancying it. I've not even got Dobey up at 55% so there's nothing here really.

Wright/Barnard - Barnard got past Ratajski first game up yesterday, now he's the last game of the night, that's a big break. Honestly would have thought this would have thrown out a Barnard bet given he's generally 9/2 and nearly 5's on Marathon, but it's saying that it wouldn't even be a bet if we were offered 5/1. No bet here.

That's your lot for today - couple of repeat underdog shots, our usual White punt and Michael Smith getting a favourable matchup stats wise that allows us to go on him as a big favourite. Good luck and I'll get on to filling in the stats.

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