Sunday, 24 June 2018

Copenhagen day 3 - for Evans' sake

Hmm, that didn't go quite to plan. Obviously you'll see no evening session report, Germany game was too exciting to pay attention.

Evans > Gurney got us out of a hole a bit, put us break even on our underdog shots but then dropped three quarters of a unit on our coinflips. Little bit annoying how they went, Henderson having darts to break and make it 5-1 is basically a won position, Smith/Lewis pretty much just came down to who won the bull, every leg going with throw, but it's a shame Smith couldn't convert either of his nine dart chances in the last two legs - the second one in particular to break in the decider, getting a bounceout at the worst possible time. He'll normally take it given two match darts. Of the others, Razma and Jacques were basically the same story, get a 3-1 lead and have your scoring go to pieces, Joyce really had no chance after Mensur was close to unplayable in getting a 4-0 lead, maybe if he holds in the sixth it might have been a different story but he'd have still needed two breaks. White/West was just a case of neither player showing up and West took his chances.

Last 16 coming up in around an hour or so - in case you didn't notice there's a rather important association football game going on today so there'll be no updates until after the event. It's a pretty strong lineup left, I particularly wouldn't want to call the non-MvG half, all of the non-seeds that have got through seem to be clumped into van Gerwen's quarter, it's basically just Evans (who's in van Gerwen's half anyway), and Lewis (who doesn't really count) who haven't. Let's take a look in running order:

Wright/Price - Watching his game yesterday, Price didn't seem too overly bothered with his injury, but you never know how these sorts of things will affect a player so I'm avoiding this. The model's indicating a bit of Price value (it thinks he's got nearly a 40% shot) but I kind of feel that these sorts of problems get amplified when you're losing/in a trickier spot, which against Klaasen he wasn't, but against Wright he probably will be. If he was 100% I'd bet but it wouldn't be can't miss value. It's up to you if you think he's alright. If you do, go right ahead. I won't.

Suljovic/Webster - God knows how Darren got through that last match. Suljovic played at a pretty high level as well to open up what ended up being an unassailable lead. Reyes played better and still chucked it away. Model literally cannot separate them - the win chances of both are within 0.1% of each other, that's how evenly it reckons they are. Speed of killing legs is within a percentage point of each other for four, five and six visits. Suljovic is scoring a lot higher in the legs he's not winning (it's a near six point difference) but I think there's value here - 0.25u Webster 15/8.

Cullen/Wade - Joe averaged really well yesterday against Razma, while Wade was made to work against Rusty Jake Rodriguez - it's one of those where if Cullen plays as he did yesterday, he won't give Wade a chance to do, as the comms say, "what Wade does". The analysis is calling this one to be extremely close as well - Cullen a very small favourite, nearly 51%! And he's priced as the underdog? That's seems like good value, 0.25u Cullen 6/4.

Lewis/Bunting - Two world champions collide, Adie serving out against Smith yesterday as Bunting came from behind against Jacques, a very solid three leg spurt to make it 5-3 being the difference. Bookies have this solidly in favour of Lewis at 8/15, which makes sense given he's showing signs of getting back to form and just beat someone who's a hell of a lot better than Bunting is, I don't think Lewis is enough of a favourite to bet on him. There's probably a little bit of value on Bunting but it's not as good as other games so I'll miss, he's the same price as Webster but getting 10% less chance of winning, so I'll pass this one up.

Cross/King - Mervyn had to outduel Max Hopp in a game that went the distance, needing to break in the tenth and then hold in the decider, while Cross needed to come from 5-3 down to beat Steve Beaton, where a better player might have nicked it (the two holds from Cross in the last three legs were in six visits, and Beaton couldn't get a dart at double in either). Cross is a big favourite at 1/4, I don't think there's enough value on King at 10/3, if it drifts any more have a small nibble on him if you want.

Evans/Whitlock - Ricky had a good start against Gurney, and where others might have buckled when Daryl threw a twelve to make it 3-3 on the Gurney throw, Evans rolled off the last three legs to take it with a near ton average. Whitlock got through Wattimena who didn't look like he was entirely on his game. Whitlock has not been averaging well all year, Evans has just beaten a much better player than Whitlock, the model has it evens, so let's go 0.25u Evans 2/1.

Labanauskas/West - I'd have assumed these would have played a bunch on the BDO circuit, but dartsdatabase can't find a head to head record, so at most they've played once, at least in what dartsdatabase can track. Another game that's priced around 2/1, West being the favourite, this is almost like a final given who they'd likely play in the last eight. This is a very similar bit of analysis to the Bunting game - Darius probably has about a 40% chance, but the sample I have on him is fairly limited, even when I factor in the BDO stats, some of which seemed pretty good but may not be too relevant here, plus West seems to be hitting some of his better form. Will avoid this one.

van Gerwen/Dolan - If you got on the Taylor +4.5, good on you - no idea what was going on in that first leg, but you can't argue with a twelve darter, which on throw on the European Tour is a guaranteed leg win. The line is priced as you would expect it to be, the model's giving Dolan a 12% shot so I'm not going to rush on to bet given we can't even get 10/1. Handicap isn't offering anything useful either.

So that's your lot - three underdog shots, let's see how they do.

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