Saturday, 30 June 2018

Hamburg day two

Day one was a bit poor, wasn't it? Seemed to be so, so many games where neither player was able to hit any sort of consistent standard, with less than 45% of legs being won in a par of fifteen darts and more than 20 legs dragging out into a seventh visit. I don't think the seeds have a great deal to worry about today, unless they're playing O'Connor who did decent (then again he's got Cross, so maybe not), Jelle looked alright but he's got Michael Smith, should be a good one if Klaasen can keep that up, Lowe did pretty well against Brown who slotted in two twelve dart legs, and in general the domestic qualifiers weren't bad. All four bets won, not sure how that happened but it's cleaned some of what was lost in Copenhagen, nice with the Lowe punt to be on the right side of a 6-5 result. It's all a long game.

Sixteen matches today, a lot of the unseeded players will need to step up their games, let's see what we've got:

Whitlock/Pipe - Not going to be rushing to watch this one, Whitlock had a good run last time out while Pipe wasn't impressive against van der Voort, this should be a comfortable Whitlock win, the model has it nearly 70/30, the market has it close to exactly the same so no betting interest either.

Clayton/Lowe - Clayton's had a few interesting results that you might not have expected of late, Lowe came through a decent encounter yesterday and you'll know I've highlighted him as an underrated player. Clayton's a step up in class, but I think he's got chances and while I project Clayton to win, it's not by much and it's not by anywhere near as much as the bookies think - 0.25u Lowe 2/1, last three tournaments Clayton's gone out to Yordi Meeuwisse, Jarred Cole and Darius Labanauskas, that's not really elite competition so who's to say Lowe can't get the job done?

Price/Langendorf - Very surprised that Maik was able to dispose of Barnard so comfortably, but he did, looking at the averages I'd guess Barnard was just having an off day. Price should win this very comfortably, around five times out of six - 4/11 is kind of tempting but with the injury I'm reluctant to go in to be honest.

King/Rowley - Mervyn's hitting some form (although, oddly his tournament win actually lowered his season long points per turn) and ought to have too much class for Rowley, who was able to get a lead against Johnson and hold it. King's even shorter than Price is, and has just over a 75% shot to take this one. Odds are 3/10 which isn't of interest to anyone.

Wilson/Thornton - James nicked the last seed when Wright withdrew, and comes in against Thornton, who beat Eidams in a turgid game which saw four really crap legs and only one good leg from ten between them. I've got Wilson, give or take a fraction of a fraction of a percent, winning this two times out of three, which seems about right given how their seasons have gone, the bookies have it closer, I don't know why, 0.25u Wilson 8/13

Cullen/Schindler - Should be an exciting one, Martin got past Robbe with a professional display, Cullen's won a couple of boards on the Pro Tour recently hinting that he might be getting it a bit back there as well as just in Europe, this is a bit different to the previous one where I think it should be a closer line than the market suggests and we should go with the underdog, Martin winning would surprise nobody and I've got him well above 40% (although still with Cullen as the favourite), so 0.25u Schindler 15/8

Huybrechts/Dobey - Enormous game, but not for either of these, it's the whole Norris thing we've been through before. Dobey looked average against Bain who put up no real resistance, bookies basically can't split them, there's probably a little bit of value on Chris here, who I've got at just above 55%, 0.25u Dobey 21/20

Webster/Humphries - Luke got away with one against Huybrechts, who missed a match dart, and will absolutely need to improve against Webster, fresh off a Pro Tour final. Bookies have this fairly close, Darren at 4/7, the model hints at a Humphries bet with around a 40% shot, but I wasn't convinced by his display yesterday and can just see Darren closing this one out easily enough.

Beaton/Boulton - Andy got through Cristo Reyes despite only throwing one fifteen dart leg, and comes in against an in form Steve Beaton, who made two semi finals in midweek. The market isn't that impressed by that feat from the Adonis, only giving him around a 60% win chance, then again the model says the same so let's move on. Could end up being a throw the model out of the window and look at form game in retrospect.

White/Hopp - The model absolutely loves White, and hates Hopp, so it should be no surprise that it throws out Ian as a huge favourite, over 70%. The market has this way too close, it's not like Ian didn't win a tournament this week - 0.5u White 8/11

Suljovic/Koltsov - Boris did alright in beating Owen yesterday, half his legs in five visits and the rest in six, and should provide interesting opposition for Mensur, but the Austrian should be too strong. Not feeling the value with Mensur being shorter than 1/4 everywhere and a win shot only in the mid 80% range, could be one for an accumulator just to boost the price but nothing of real interest outside of that.

van Gerwen/Joyce - I don't know whether Joyce at 9/1 is recognising that Ryan can actually play good darts or not, everyone's so hugely odds against versus Michael. It might be worth a micro punt as I think he can get home around one time in six according to the stats, but it's hard to know how Joyce will react to an evening session on stage against the world number one. Suljovic disposed of him with little trouble last time so it could easily be the same story, if Joyce was more convincing against Wilson then I might have risked it, but just one leg in fifteen darts leans me to say no.

Gurney/Marijanovic - Gurney's solidly odds on, the market thinking it's about 80/20, I've got it a little bit closer at 75/25. Taking 4/1 on a 3/1 shot is a bit of thin value, but if I factor in that Robert looked very solid in dealing with an in form Jermaine Wattimena and had two solid displays in midweek, then I'll take a small stab - 0.1u Marijanovic 4/1

Cross/O'Connor - Willie played really well yesterday but this is a step up and a big ask. It's about the same line as the previous game, but I've got Cross with a slightly higher chance of winning, as such I don't think there's even tiny value on Willie against the world champion.

Bunting/Labanauskas - An intriguing match up late in the session, it's a winnable game for both with the bookies rating it as being close as well, Bunting a small favourite. I've got Bunting as a slightly larger favourite, but it's not by much (58% versus 4/5 odds), and Darius only has around 60 won legs in the database, so I'll just avoid this one.

Smith/Klaasen - Another good one to finish on, Klaasen now looks to be into the Matchplay barring some really weird backdoor shenanigans, so should have a bit of freedom. He looked alright yesterday, but will need to produce the same again to stand a chance. Market thinks about 75/25, I think about the same.

That's your lot for today, back later on or early tomorrow with round three.

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