Sunday, 1 July 2018

Hamburg day 3 - so close!

Marijanovic gave us a decent sweat, didn't he? Getting a match dart and everything after getting into a 4-2 lead, got to say fair play to Gurney for slotting in an 11 dart leg against the throw where it counts to make it 4-4. Elsewhere, van Gerwen allegedly hit a nine dart leg, White beat Hopp as you would expect, while Lowe missed one dart to end it at 5-4, meaning that he'd have to survive three match darts against Clayton, but did so, so the end result for yesterday is pretty much bang on break even, give or take a hundredth of a unit. Looked a lot better than it did after Thornton won the decider against Wilson (who if he could have killed the last leg in fifteen darts, would have won), Cullen beat Schindler in what looked like an awful game and then Huybrechts edged out Dobey to critically eliminate Norris from the Matchplay. The qualifiers for that are set unless we get a really, really weird champion here to knock Richard North from the last Pro Tour spot, it's been calculated by Burton already so read his Twitter if you want to see more including the seeding situation, I won't repeat it here.

Of the other people that advanced, again, nobody was really killing it apart from MvG, O'Connor looked good again in rallying to beat Rob Cross from 4-2 down with four straight legs, Klaasen looked good in places to eliminate Smith, other than that, I don't know. Rowley looked alright in upsetting King I guess? Bottom half is wide open anyway.

Today's games - van Gerwen/Thornton's about the same price as van Gerwen/Joyce was yesterday, read what you like into what that says about Thornton (or, for that matter, Joyce). This should be routine but I can't see any solid value.

White/Webster is one we've seen three times on the floor this year and White leads 2-1 (it's 7-1 overall), for some reason I thought they'd met in Europe recently, I guess not. White's about a 60/40 favourite which is exactly where the model has things, so let's move on. This is in match and hence draw order, so whoever against van Gerwen in the quarters should be live and maybe worth a tiny punt.

Cullen/Pipe is seen at around 65/35 on the market, there may be tiny value on Joe (I'm getting him at winning a fraction more than two out of three), but that he got dragged into multiple comedy legs yesterday is a worry, he won those but might not today if it repeats. Watch him just roll Pipe 6-1 with all legs in fifteen darts now.

Gurney/Bunting will play the winner of that one after Daryl edged out Marijanovic as detailed above, while Bunting also went the distance with Labanauskas, just about having the better quality and getting a 14 dart kill on throw in the last when it mattered, but that wasn't a game for the ages. This is priced fairly close, Gurney 8/13 and Bunting the reverse, that may be slightly undervaluing Superchin but not by enough for me to start betting him. If you want an acca for fun then you could do worse I guess.

Klaasen/Boulton starts the second half after Jelle eliminated Michael Smith, while Boulton beat Steve Beaton without having to win more than one leg within fifteen darts to do so (a twelve darter with a 121 bull finish in the tenth leg to win it to be fair). It's a big chance for both of these, the market seems to have quite a lot of vig on it, so while betting on Klaasen would be horrible, going on Boulton isn't appealing either. If money comes in on Klaasen and Boulton drifts to 15/8, 2/1 say then go ahead, but right now there's not enough edge to start punting on someone who's won just two out of twelve legs in a par score against a classier player who looks to be trending upwards.

Lowe/Price - will we have the hat trick of bets? Price wasn't massively troubled by Langendorf, but both then and in midweek hasn't thrown anything hugely threatening. While it's working, keep doing it - 0.25u Lowe 23/10, this seems to be another 60/40 or so game ignoring any form/injury issues, so I think this looks good.

Suljovic/Rowley is obviously the second most one sided game on the market with Mensur at around 1/5, there's a fair bit of vig in this market again, not even being able to get 4/1 on Rowley, who you would think could just be happy to reach this stage. Don't want to get into psychology when we can get into numbers, I'm getting Rowley just short of 25%, so if there was value then it'd be here, but it's nowhere near enough to consider a bet.

O'Connor/Huybrechts is the last game of the afternoon, Willie's been one of the stand out players so far, and the market's respecting him, making this around 55/45 in favour of the Belgian. I also have Kim as a small favourite, it's even smaller than the market suggests, so while there's a good argument to make that we should bet O'Connor at 13/10 when the model's giving him about a 47% shot and he's on form, Huybrechts is one of those where he may see that there's a very good chance to make a final here and up his game.

That's just the one bet. It's a bit sparse but sometimes there's just nothing there to be interested in. Should be back for quarter final tips, I plan on watching Spain/Russia at home so should be able to shove the afternoon session into the computer, look at the odds and give some quick analysis. May rework the master computer to make it more efficient, I also intend on updating the Second Division Darts page right now.

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