Sunday, 29 July 2018

Matchplay final - take a bow son

What an incredible performance by Gary Anderson that was. Seventeen legs won, sixteen of those within fifteen darts, half of those within twelve, that's unplayable. Simply unplayable. It's a minor miracle that de Zwaan was able to get up to twelve legs.

Looking at my stats now, on the year that's pushed Anderson ahead of Cross in overall points per turn by seven hundredths of a point, interestingly, and it's obviously on a more limited sample (although it's 200+ legs), Durrant is still fourth.

In the other semi, it was more of a scrappy affair, with Wright and Suljovic combined hitting 14/30 legs (47%) within fifteen darts, the same percentage of legs that Anderson won within twelve darts. The final should break down very simply - if Anderson plays anything like that tonight, Anderson wins. If Suljovic plays anything like that tonight, Anderson wins. It's going to take Mensur to step things up to what he was doing in the Webster match to even think about keeping it close, and Anderson's going to have to continue to miss doubles at a fairly high rate, and at key points to allow Mensur to step in and nick legs. It's odd that, after de Zwaan was around 3/1, and Cullen was 4/1, that Suljovic is very close to 4/1 for this match. That seems like a bit of an overreaction to Anderson's form yesterday if you ask me - adding one or two extra legs in comparison to the semis and quarters respectively does not really make any difference at all to the likelihood of the better player winning it. Looking back at a tweet I posted before the start of the event, it would only have given MvG an extra 1.3% against de Zwaan comparing the quarters to the final. Not sure what the sweet spot would be for where gives the most increase - clearly van Gerwen would already be hugely favoured. It's not going to make any significant difference to players who are fairly close for obvious reasons.

Looking at Anderson against Suljovic, on whole year data, Anderson is at 75% against Suljovic for tonight's final (to see what sort of difference a longer match makes, if they were to meet in round 1, a match just a bit over half the length, it'd be 70/30. In a standard Pro Tour game it'd be 65/35). If we filter since after the UK Open, it's 74/46 Anderson. If we filter on June and July, it's a staggering 94/6 Anderson, and on just the Matchplay it's 95/5 Anderson. That said, if we just filter on the first three rounds of the Matchplay, it's only 63/37 Anderson. That's how much of a difference last night's games made to projections. I'm not betting on this one so I'll end up down just over a third of a point for the tournament.

Additionally, yesterday's game locks Suljovic into the Grand Slam (he was looking pretty safe given he's won a European Tour event), and also looks to have confirmed Jonny Clayton in as well, as Anderson already had a spot from the UK Open win. Anyone know what happened in the Granite City Open? Radio silence from all and sundry, I can find out who won a minor BDO ranking event in Luxembourg (Roger Janssen getting the cake it seems, looks to be picking up a bit of form) but nothing from one of the more well known opens in the UK.

May as well post up the new FRH adjusted rankings. Suljovic will go past Gurney with a win, but that's the only possible change - Anderson would still be about 25 grand short of Wright if he takes it. So, we have:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Rob Cross
3 Peter Wright
4 Gary Anderson (UP 1)
5 Daryl Gurney (DOWN 1)
6 Mensur Suljovic (UP 1)
7 Phil Taylor (DOWN 1)
8 Michael Smith
9 Simon Whitlock
10 Ian White
11 Darren Webster (UP 1)
12 Gerwyn Price (DOWN 1)
13 Dave Chisnall
14 James Wade
15 Jonny Clayton
16 Joe Cullen
17 Adrian Lewis (UP 1)
18 Mervyn King (DOWN 1)
19 Kim Huybrechts
20 Stephen Bunting (NEW)

Barney, despite getting a win, is out of there. de Zwaan's up to #33, but as it's effectively half way through the season, I'll post down to #50 and list a year to date change:

21 Raymond van Barneveld (DOWN 10)
22 John Henderson (UP 5)
23 Jelle Klaasen (DOWN 4)
24 Steve West (UP 8)
25 Steve Beaton
26 Jamie Lewis
27 Alan Norris (DOWN 14)
28 Kyle Anderson (DOWN 4)
29 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 12)
30 Jermaine Wattimena (UP 8)
31 James Wilson (UP 2)
32 Justin Pipe (DOWN 3)
33 Jeffrey de Zwaan (UP 36)
34 Robert Thornton (DOWN 3)
35 Cristo Reyes (DOWN 5)
36 Keegan Brown (UP 9)
37 Dimitri van den Bergh (DOWN 2)
38 Vincent van der Voort (DOWN 4)
39 Chris Dobey (DOWN 2)
40 Max Hopp (UP 18)
41 Steve Lennon (UP 8)
42 Richard North (UP 2)
43 Jan Dekker
44 Corey Cadby (NEW)
45 Brendan Dolan (DOWN 5)
46 James Richardson (DOWN 5)
47 Krzysztof Ratajski (UP 12)
48 Christian Kist (DOWN 12)
49 Mark Webster (DOWN 10)
50 Zoran Lerchbacher (DOWN 3)

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