Wednesday, 25 July 2018

Matchplay Quarters - Nobody wants this title it seems

Smith and Cross go down, oh wow, it's getting a little crazy, as Seal might say. Bets went decent yesterday, de Zwaan and Chisnall clawing back everything that we'd lost in the first round and making White tonight a freeroll, which he couldn't quite manage - going down too far in the middle of the game, eventually getting back all the breaks he needed but seemingly using up everything to do so and letting Mensur grab the break right back immediately and then throw for the game at 10-8. Oh well, it's break even for all intents and purposes. We're down to the quarters - not adjusting my big full tournament simulator for slightly different results, Wright's now the big favourite as far as the whole tournament goes with a 35% shot, while Anderson, fresh through from a surprisingly tight win against Barney, is the favourite to get through the other half and having a 22% shot overall - so not overly appealing at around evens to win the whole thing. Wright being 7/2 seems a much, much better bet. Even Chizzy maybe - I've got him coming through one in six times, and he's as high as 14/1? I really don't know why the bookies all have Anderson so short.

For the quarters, for which I have adjusted for the round 2 games, tomorrow we've got the surprise package of de Zwaan against Chisnall, and the round 2 results don't change this one much (I wouldn't expect a great deal of change in any game now with Barney being out), Chizzy's a bit over 60% to take it. The market has Dave at 4/6, so let's move on.

The other game in the half is Anderson against Cullen, Joe having probably his best TV showing in his career already, at least in terms of the size of his wins. Here I have this a hell of a lot closer than the market reckons - 4/1? Really? I'm thinking Gary's the favourite, let's not get things wrong here, but I've got Joe at over 30%, and it's more or less a freeroll for him at this stage, which always seems like a psychological bonus - at least in terms of the market, Anderson is expected to win the whole thing. I'm not so sure. 0.25u Cullen 4/1, scary thing is that oddschecker reckon the market's getting even more in favour of the Flying Scotsman. What the heck?

Wright/Whitlock's the first game up on Friday, Peter being a solid favourite with the market putting him at around 75%, maybe a touch less accounting for the vig. He was very impressive tonight, at least in terms of the numbers (I was watching, but was so exhausted after the last 48 hours I fell asleep after the first break lol), and there may even be really tiny value in Snakebite - I'm seeing 77%, which means at 1/3, which looks like it's widely available even if some bookies are slow getting it up after the last game today, isn't necessarily something I'd tip, but if you want to put it into an acca, then you wouldn't be making your bet worse.

Last game is Webster/Suljovic, Darren only actually getting four from eleven legs against Cross in par, but he got them - model would suggest pile in on Webster at north of 2s, but as I've stated many times, Mensur does seem to be playing better than the model suggests, and Webster hasn't been putting up quite the blistering form that I think he can do in Blackpool to date. Both made this stage last year, both were able to hang around, I don't know. I think I'll pass it.

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