Sunday, 22 July 2018

Matchplay day 2

So Ian White came home, although it was a bit closer than I'd have hoped, but both the underdogs never really got going - Beaton fell into a 2-0 hole and was never really able to threaten the Suljovic throw, while Anderson managed to get 6-1 behind before half trying to get back into it, then missing a dart for a 118 out and that was that - Barney managing to serve out from there with two twenty dart legs. It wasn't pretty. Anderson actually managed more fifteen dart or better legs than Barney did. Oh well. Henderson can still get us into the black tomorrow at least.

Was a pretty uninspiring day throughout - just looking through the games, Webster was gifted quite a lot by Lennon, and will need to step it up in the next round, White was able to put the foot down after being broken with a solid five leg run winning four of those five in fifteen darts, Price showed little signs of life, Cullen not doing anything outstanding to get 7-0 up, West's going to have nightmares about that match for years, he completely outplayed Gurney (West had seven of his ten legs in par, Gurney three from twelve), Gary was competent, just waiting for Bunting to go off the boil, while Cross just murdered King from leg five onwards, that huge out just before the end of the first mini session being a punishing blow when King'd have thought he'd get a shot to go 4-1 up with two breaks.

Adapting the overall win percentage model from a few posts ago, Cross's win now makes him a solid favourite up over 22%, with Smith and Wright at 16%. Ando's now up to 11% with nobody else even as high as 8%. Smith therefore looks to be the amazing each way play at tens, he's only that low on the projections as the model thinks Chisnall will knock him out four times out of ten, get through that and who knows? That White is still available at 50's is astonishing.

All of the results are into the computer, once tomorrow's done I'll reproject all the games, give bets and post updated overall stats. Should be good.

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