Monday 23 July 2018

Matchplay day 3, round 2 projections and bets

Well, Hendo gave us a sweat at least, but that's an 0-4 run on the underdog bets, the correct White tip clawing back two of those plus change for down a little less than half a unit. Not a bad performance by either, Kim playing very well for a change. Elsewhere, Whitlock was pretty mediocre against a worse North, getting just one leg in fifteen darts but still winning 10-2, Wade/Wattimena was fun with both of them playing decently, while Wright did what he needed to do, not entirely sure how he let Jelle win three legs in seven or more visits, but there we go.

New projections:

It looks to be a two horse race in the bottom half between the 2 and 3 seeds, but White will have something to say about it, both of Cross and Wright gaining 7-8% win chances from before the tournament started. Nobody else on this half apart from White gaining exactly 2% has moved much, it wasn't really likely given their chances. Smith's win chance has more than doubled, Anderson's is about that, Gurney's gained 2% as has Lewis, Chisnall's gained 3%... amazing what one played going out will do. So what does this mean for our betting? Round two starts tomorrow and as I'm at a game tomorrow night I'll do the whole round in one:

0.25u de Zwaan 9/4, sure there's always a risk that it's a bit after the lord mayor's show, he did go out to Hogan after beating MvG in the UK Open, but he's been playing decent enough all season that he's very live against Lewis here, who needed every leg before the tiebreak to see off Wilson.

0.25u Chisnall 21/10, Chisnall didn't need to do much against Keegan, but what he did was exactly the same as what Smith did - both of them getting one twelve darter, five fifteen darters and the rest in six visits. As you can see above, Chizzy's been doing just about enough to get up to near a 40% shot at Smith here (as these have gone off a race to 13, if it is race to 11, it may well be at 40%) so being given greater than 2/1 I think we go with it.

Gurney/Cullen's very close to our projections so we'll move on to Anderson, Cullen would have the tiniest of value but it's not much, neither played that great. The Ando game is again close to our lines, Raymond dropped in a lot of head to head win chances due to his tiny sample size, only three legs in a par of fifteen darts isn't really much to worry Anderson.

Wright/Huybrechts is nearly a bet on Wright but I can't get excited about a 3/10 offering, that's 77% against our line of call it 81%. If money comes in on Kim after tonight then maybe, Kim's had a test and Wright really hasn't. Whitlock/Wade has Wade as a slightly shorter favourite than the model is suggesting, then again Whitlock played crap tonight and Wade didn't, so that's enough for me to ignore.

0.5u White 7/4, that much is obvious. Mensur's projections have improved following his solid win over Beaton, but not by that much, White got more legs in par than Mensur did against Hopp. Finally the Cross line looks too close to bet, Webster 4/1 would be half tempting but he didn't set the world alight against Lennon whilst Cross was excellent against King.

That's it for now really. Be back Wednesday I think.

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