Monday 4 October 2021

4/4, beautiful

Well, that went better than expected, much much better. Plenty of players dropping out that you wouldn't have expected, the bottom half of the draw in particular has been blown completely wide open with Wright and van Gerwen dropping out, not got time to wait for a de Sousa/Clayton line to appear (although you'd have to think it's evens?), so will just take a look at tomorrow and come back for the remainder of the last sixteen tomorrow evening.

Chisnall/Smith - Starting off, irritatingly, with a line that looks just fine. The market is seeing this as ever so slightly better than 60/40 in favour of Chizzy, which is maybe two or three points too much in favour of Dave, maybe even a little bit more given the relative performances in the first round, but it's not enough. Chisnall favourite but Ross being a very live dog seems fair to me.

Wade/Bunting - Line seems more or less the same, except with more vig, as the previous game - Wade being favoured as you would expect. Just with the way the additional vig is working makes this a no bet at this time - Bunting probably has a little more than a 40% chance, and 6/4 is all we can get. Bunting looked good though, maybe if his line drifts more to the best price of 8/15 we have for Wade we can think about it, but there is bizarre agreement as to the exact line amongst almost all bookmakers here.

Price/King - Price looked real good in the first round, any time you can average over 100 in double in, you've got to be feeling confident, while King's average was way down, can't really tell why given how much of a dumpster fire dartsdata is to use nowadays, but it's a bit of a concern. 4/1 is a pretty huge price though so I'll have a small nibble, 0.1u King 4/1, he has been playing well enough in 2021 that he shouldn't be that much of a dog in anything apart from the longest of events, I've got a feeling that Gerwyn will just roll, but we'll see.

Searle/Humphries - Bookies have these even, and this should be incredibly spicy between two players very much on the rise. Gun to the head and I'd take Searle, but fortunately there isn't, I'm only seeing it as 55/45 which isn't really enough to take a shot here.

Bottom half tips tomorrow evening, actually in the office then probably not back until later.

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