Thursday 7 October 2021

Grand Prix quarters

Let's take a very quick look:

Noppert/White - Thought there might have been value on Ian in this one when I saw Noppie priced up at 4/6, second round match and the quality of the win not withstanding, White's been meh but he's done enough that he shouldn't be too far behind Danny, if behind at all. Then I shove the figures into the master computer and it's 60/40. Oh well.

Ratajski/Clayton - Incredibly tasty matchup, which sees Clayton come in as a near 2/1 on favourite, which is surely prohibitive regardless of how good Clayton has been, simply on account of how good Ratajski is. The master computer backs this up - Clayton's a favourite, but it's only slightly over 55%. That indicates enough quality differential that we can't be tipping Krzysztof unfortunately, although I may have a look at the handicaps for shits and giggles.

Price/Chisnall - Could we see Dave pull the upset here, and get the 95th iteration of "this'll be the best chance Chisnall will ever have to win a major"? Quite possibly. We're not getting an awful price either - 5/2 is indicative of slightly under a 30% chance of winning, whereas I'm thinking it's in the mid to high 30's. It's close but it's not enough when you additionally factor in how convincing each player has been in the tournament to date which surely favours Gerwyn.

Bunting/Searle - Wow, Ryan's the 60/40 favourite. Searle betting party time surely completely gone now. That does actually look fair enough, and there may actually be marginal value in Searle here, but Bunting's done just about enough this year to steer me away from it. The stage has got to be a factor as well - this is by far the biggest game of Searle's career, whereas Bunting has won Lakeside and gone deep at Ally Pally on multiple occasions.

So no bets.

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