Wednesday 6 October 2021

Well, no perfect tournament

We don't expect King to beat Price that often. It just looked like value, few little things one way as opposed to the other and maybe he gets it to 2-2 in sets, then who knows. Quickly on the remaining last 16 games:

White/Labanauskas - Darius seems to have shortened from when I had a look at this yesterday, given Derrick wanted to bet that way. It actually projects a bit closer than I thought it would, and the line of Labanauskas 11/8 actually looks fair enough.

Cross/Ratajski - This should be a good one after Rob got a result that will surely restore some confidence. That said, he still comes in as an underdog, albeit a very small one. Again, the line looks fair enough, this feels about 55/45 in favour of Ratajski.

Noppert/van der Voort - Danny's not going to get a better chance to get to a ranking quarter final than this, and the market sees it as bang on 60/40. This looks about right to me as well, sadly, I was wondering if Vincent was under the radar enough in 2021 and Danny might have finally got a big boost to his perceived value that we could have snuck in a VVDV bet. Alas not.

de Sousa/Clayton - This is a real spicy one and whoever wins this will surely be a huge favourite to reach a major ranking final, the bookies have Clayton as the slight favourite. I'm not sure why Jose is 11/10, he is scoring a tiny bit better, and I'm wondering if I have the edge to bet on de Sousa here. It's incredibly close. If it was 5/4 I'd probably punt without hesitation. Heck, seeing Jose as about a 56-57% favourite is close to enough with the line we have, especially given Jonny's up and down recent form. I think the first round performances are just enough for me to say sit on the fence and enjoy a match between two of the top five players in the world. I guess if you have an odds boost then use it?

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