Saturday 16 October 2021

Euros round 2

Little bit disappointing to not come out better on the betting. King had three clear at tops for 2-0 that would have been 3-0, sure Nathan gifted the same back, but I think he was playing better and was just a bit unfortunate. Cullen was fine, then for the should have beens, Hempel. Man, nice job. I took 100/30 right before the off once I saw that he won the darts, which either means they haven't adjusted from their base price on that news (we've calculated what winning the bull is worth in the past), or that the 7/2 I was looking for was available previously. Either way, it's good. Jose won, although Lewy played some solid stuff and definitely will be in the conversation for young player of the year (although I think that it'll take some effort to remove Rusty from the front of the pack), then Borland won as well. Oh well, it indicates that the process in them being close to bets is fine, even if we didn't quite pull the trigger. Into the last 16 now and this is a big 10k jump in prize money, so huge for a lot of players.

Borland/Cullen - Joe was just fine against Ted, who wasn't on top form really. Borland was able to take out Whitlock with a steady performance. This is a bit of a step up to take out Joe in a longer format though, I see it as just under a one in for shot for William here. He's around 3/1, so the market's fine.

Dolan/Cross - This ought to be a good one between two players just outside the top 20 of the FRH rankings, both of whom can push in with a win. Brendan looked pretty unstoppable against Huybrechts, while Cross was given an interesting test by Keane Barry, match never really looked close but Rob never really got going. The market has this evens, with Dolan just odds on, I similarly can't separate the players.

de Sousa/Humphries - Another very interesting game on here. Mentioned Jose earlier, he probably played a little bit better than he had done in previous games without never really getting anywhere near top gear, while Humphries was pushed all the way in his game with Rydz and looked pretty ordinary in the legs he lost. Market is thinking Luke has a bit more than a 40% shot, that kind of feels right, although the computer's saying that Jose is a much bigger favourite than that at just over 70%. Got to bet this as a result, 0.25u de Sousa 8/13

Searle/Noppert - Another fine game to close the afternoon session. Searle was pushed extremely hard by Michael Smith who was unlucky to lose in a deciding leg, while Noppert just rolled over Ratajski with a five leg spurt that you rarely see against someone of Krzysztof's calibre. This feels like a flip on paper, the market gives the tiniest of edges to Searle, seems fine to me. Could be a sneaky game of the round, although how sneaky it still is given how they did at the Grand Prix is open for debate.

Aspinall/Heta - Mentioned Nathan above. Heta won last on against Clemens in a pretty decent match with neither player doing much wrong at all and just the opening dodgy leg where Clemens was on a nine to break, but couldn't finish in eighteen. Oops. I think Heta should be the small favourite without looking at anything, it's actually Nathan that is, and the computer says it's yet another flip. Oh well.

Price/Gawlas - Gerwyn swept aside Ritchie Edhouse looking great, while Adam was in a not particularly pretty game which started off horribly for both, but did what he needed to get the win. Price is 1/8, if anything that's value by a tick.

van Gerwen/Wade - Michael didn't need much time to finish off Krcmar, getting the two breaks he needed in the first three legs (finished in just 13 visits) and then not letting go from there. Wade was in a spot of bother against Smith-Neale early before a decent run of legs to get back from a 4-2 hole. Michael looks a little short on paper at 4/11, but checking the computer it's actually OK - Wade's over 30% so maybe the line could shade closer to 4/9 to be fair, but we don't get enough on Wade to bet.

Suljovic/Hempel - Final game, Mensur didn't need to do too much against Hunt who really didn't show up, Hempel's magic over Wright we've already talked about. Main question is whether that victory for Hempel has terminally damaged the value. He is 7/4 to beat Suljovic, and I think we can take that easily, 0.25u Hempel 7/4. The computer actually thinks this is 55/45 in favour of Florian, so getting a line that indicates he has less than a 40% chance is great. The worries are that Mensur's actually scoring slightly higher overall - albeit by less than a point, so Florian's got a bit more inconsistency to be concerned about, but that's not going to swing this to not being a bet. Even if we said as a result it was a flip, then we still take the price.

That's it, will also be keeping an eye on the British Open this weekend. Great to see WDF events getting more involved on Dart Connect.

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