Friday 1 July 2022

Long time no post - Trier day 1 picks

Three byes, for fuck's sake PDC, sort your shit out. Will catch up with a ranty post some time next week about the World Cup, Grand Slam and a bunch of other stuff, but for now, let's look at today's 13 games:

Engstrom/Wilson - Not a great deal of data on Johan. Less than 40 legs. Can't really make a great deal out of it, but shorter than 1/2 on James feels right.

Montgomery/Wattimena - Ross has been a bit quiet, Jermaine maybe starting to pick up a bit of form after a long time, similar price to the previous game oddly enough. And it feels right as well.

Hughes/Plaisier - I think we have enough data on Wesley to make a fair assessment, and he's not far off where Hughes is at this point in time. Market agrees though, putting Jamie as a small favourite.

Szaganski/Williams - Nearly a sneaky play on Radek here. Scott's playing some real great stuff in this non-card holder vs card holder match, but around 2/1 on Radek seems a bit unfair. Should be nearer 6/4. Close to an underdog play but not quite, 5/2 I'd probably take.

Zonneveld/Menzies - Not quite sure why Niels is the dog here. Looks 57/43 to me. We can get slightly odds against so will go 0.25u Zonneveld 11/10, added value of Menzies being due a time out as well.

Murnan/White - Ian could really do with a result here, and this one is being priced surprisingly closely. I say that, the model's spitting out 60/40 White and he's 4/6 at the first book I looked at. OK then.

Lukeman/Michael - Should be comfortable for Martin here, as he looks to close in on a Matchplay spot, I'm thinking winning more than three in four, market's even stronger than that in general.

Bialecki/King - Interesting battle of the ages here, and one where Bialecki seems live with just over 40% chances. 7/4 is close to tempting, but not quite enough, King needs a run here so should be keyed in.

Rydz/Worsley - Nothing too interesting here, Callan should cruise home, maybe not quite as easily as the market thinks, but certainly enough where there's nothing tempting on Jon in this one.

Razma/Horvat - Same old same old, Dragutin seems unbackable until he can show us something decent, Razma's looked solid enough of late, round about 1/3 looks about the right ballpark.

Wenig/Lennon - Why is Steve perennially underrated? Should win nearly 80% of the time and he's barely shorter than 1/2. Will take this every day of the week, 0.25u Lennon 4/9

Noppert/Rodriguez - Tough draw for both here. Still kind of weird to think Noppie's unseeded in these, even after three withdrawals pulling other players up into the seeds, but it is what it is. Rowby is undervalued here, 0.25u Rodriguez 11/5, I'm getting over 40% so there is the edge to play here.

Hempel/Brooks - This one's kind of interesting which, iirc when I had a quick look last night, opened fairly tight but has had money come in on Hempel, both had good 2021's but have been quiet in H1 of 2022, looks to me like Brooks has just over 40% so the market seems close enough to correct.

That's it, back tomorrow with round two.

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