Tuesday 19 July 2022

Matchplay round 2

To say that was a disappointing first round was an understatement. Some players (Heta, Anderson) just didn't turn up, while others (Dolan, Gilding) blew leads of various sizes, only the automatic play of Wright got home. Just the two seeds out other than Ando, we thought Aspinall over Humphries had a chance, but Rowby over Clayton isn't one many of us thought was on the cards. So we've got a lot of seed on seed action now, let's go through round 2:

Rodriguez/van den Bergh - Rowby got the big shock as mentioned above, Dimitri easily dispatched a sub-par Callan Rydz. Can't see the conditions (I am guessing it is going to be fucking boiling, IIRC the Winter Gardens isn't the coolest place at the best of times, and it's slightly warm at the moment) affecting either, so a projection of 75/25 Dimitri doesn't seem to need altering. The market's giving Rowby a fraction more chance than that, no bet.

Wade/Aspinall - James overcame Martin Lukeman comfortably enough, not the greatest game and first TV game nerves seemed to play a factor. Nathan took out Humphries, many people's tip to go all the way, but it won't be this year, and I think he'll take out Wade as well, I'm seeing a touch better than 60% chances, sadly he seems 8/13 across the board as Wade's #5 seeding is correctly not being taken seriously.

Wright/Ratajski - Peter mauled Razma losing just four legs, Ratajski was pushed a bit harder by Bunting but looked pretty good. Ratajski has chances, nearer to 40% than one in three, but it's not that much nearer that we can start to look at 2/1 as any sort of value bet. After being all over Wright in round one, it's definitely not one I'd put in any sort of accumulator.

van Gerwen/Cullen - This one's been spicy a few times on TV and after van Gerwen didn't look the greatest against Lewis, there's the chance this might be again. This looks to me to be another case of lay Cullen, he won heavily in round one but that to me looks more like Damon playing badly rather than Joe playing fantastically, I see MvG at over 75% to claim the quarter final spot, so 0.25u van Gerwen 4/7

Gurney/Noppert - Daryl didn't need to play great to eliminate Anderson but did enough, Noppert was pressured by Dolan but pulled away after the second break and somehow ended up with a 100 average. Seems a straight 2-1 in favour of the Freeze, that's roughly the line, so no bet.

de Sousa/Cross - Jose came through last night when many thought he was a seed in danger - maybe the warm conditions suit him? Cross also came from a big hole against Dobey, so maybe a bit of a name on the trophy moment? Looks about the same sort of value as the previous game, Cross a little bit better than 2-1 favourite, not quite 70%, I think 0.25u Cross 8/13 is worth the stab.

Price/Chisnall - Schindler gave a great account yesterday, but Price had just enough quality at the death to get over the line, looking like one or two stray darts shy of a ton average. Chizzy was in a bit of a back and forth game with Huybrechts but Kim continued his poor Blackpool run in the end. Chizzy's live here, I'd say 35% chances, I'm surprised we can only get slightly better than 6/4.

Smith/van Duijvenbode - Michael was one of only two players to need overtime in round one, Dirk meanwhile came out the winner by the odd break in a real high quality tussle with Ryan Searle. Bookies can barely separate them, only giving Smith a tiny edge of less than 55/45, maybe it should be Smith at 11/10 rather than Dirk from where I'm standing. Should be real tight.

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