Thursday 21 July 2022

Matchplay quarters

Not a great couple of bets. van Gerwen won comfortably enough, but de Sousa continuing a return to form out of nowhere gave us a bit more of a set back. Smith falling might be a surprise to the casuals but not to us (or the market), and it gives us a fairly interesting quarter final lineup, let's take a peek:

Wright/van den Bergh - Peter needed overtime against Ratajski, Krzysztof performing better than expected as we thought he might but just missed a couple of key doubles at the death. Dimitri didn't have too much of a problem with Rowby, who I think can be fairly happy with his performance this week. Market has this, to me, surprisingly close with Wright only at 4/5, I'm seeing it a bit further apart, close to 60/40. Maybe ever so slightly better as Wright has a tiny bit more consistency, but nothing to generate a bet.

van Gerwen/Aspinall - Michael shrugged aside Joe Cullen as we thought he might do, while Aspinall was pushed by Wade and won by the odd break. This ought to be fairly comfortable for Michael, Nathan's done alright this week but this feels like a step too far and I'm projecting MvG to win 75% of the time. That's enough for an easy play at 365 as well as a couple of others, 0.25u van Gerwen 4/7

Price/de Sousa - Jose must be liking the warm conditions, getting a big lead against Cross but this time the comeback was prevented, Price was in a little bit of bother against Chisnall yesterday but a good second half showing was enough to move the number 2 seed into the only chalk v chalk matchup we've got. This looks like a 75/25 play again in favour of the Welshman, actually slightly better. Odds are slightly shorter again, but this is worth the shot, 0.25u Price 1/2

van Duijvenbode/Noppert - Dirk got ahead early, then when Smith threatened a comeback after a decent second session, he kept Michael at arms length for long enough to get over the line. Danny had little trouble with Daryl Gurney, and is the only player in the field with back to back ton plus averages for those who like their meaningless statistics. Market has it at evens take your pick, the length of game makes this a pretty trivial play on Hills, 0.25u van Duijvenbode evs, he projects at near 65% which is the best play of the round by far.

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