Sunday 3 July 2022

Trier day 3

More small gains yesterday, beats losses, just keep ticking over. Eight matches going this afternoon, lots of seeds going out yesterday so the tournament is wide open (watch Humphries bink a fourth):

Rodriguez/Clemens - Market thinks this is too close to call. Are they catching up on Rowby, or just not rating Clemens? It seems fine to me, I can't split them either.

Aspinall/Williams - Scott moves on again to face Aspinall, who did for one of our tips yesterday, think the market is catching up to Scott a little bit (especially after his Pro Tour win) but still correctly values Aspinall as a solid player, maybe the line should be slightly tighter than it is, the Williams line looks perfect but Nathan's too short with the vig. Nothing here regardless.

Plaisier/Razma - Wesley crushed de Sousa while Razma overcame Schindler and the German crowd, and it's a big opportunity for both now. Wesley's the favourite and this seems real close to a bet for me. Unibet have it some decimal value that's not converting right the pair, if you can get that then I think it's just about worth it, I have Wesley at just shy of 60%. The 4/5, 8/11 he's at in most larger books isn't quite worth the punt to me.

Cross/Woodhouse - Luke finally moves through to a final day after a big break (maybe ever? Context of tweets I've seen is ambiguous), and gets a tough draw in Cross, Luke's maybe got slightly more chances than the market suggests - 5/2 is available in a few places and I'm estimating his chances at 35%, again like the above it's not quite enough to go against Rob in this spot. Weird spot where Cross dodged a bullet and maybe it's a name on the trophy moment.

Lukeman/Bunting - Martin swept aside a surprisingly under par Searle, Stephen needed every leg and a missed match dart from Bialecki to advance. Looks to me like Bunting should have a moderate edge at not quite 60%, he's 8/11, there really is no value whatsoever today by the looks of things.

Heta/van den Bergh - Damon took advantage of a few missed doubles from Rydz while van den Bergh looked amazing with a 110 average against Hempel who really stood no chance. I think this is our first bet, 0.25u Heta 6/5 available on Hills and VC, I have Damon at 57% which is more than enough to go at a slight odds against price, this is maybe a bit dangerous given Dimitri's performance yesterday and that his two recent tournaments are unranked and hence not in my data, so maybe I underestimate him a fair bit, but it's hard to pick against Damon at odds against against most players.

Humphries/Wenig - Luke was given a decent test by Menzies while Lukas had a checkout extravaganza with a come from behind win against Chris Dobey. I think the run ends here, that sort of finishing seems unsustainable, I'm actually half tempted to take the 1/5 on Luke as this looks 90/10 to me.

White/de Zwaan - Two final leg winners here, Ian taking advantage of uncharacteristic missed doubling from Cullen while Jeffrey dodged a match dart coming from 5-3 down to van Duijvenbode. Big game for both as they both look to rebuild after a couple of lean years, de Zwaan in particular desperately needs to get money on the board as he is going to need the worlds to save his tour card. Ian's a small favourite in the market, line looks spot on.

So just the one bet - if you're on the DvdB hype train then it's understandable if you don't want to play it, but I'm on the Heta hype train so let's go.

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