Saturday 2 July 2022

Trier day 2 afternoon

OK yesterday, Rowby bailing us out of losing the Zonneveld flip and then Lennon surprisingly losing to Wenig, as time is short I'll do the afternoon session now and the evening session in a new post:

Ratajski/Woodhouse - Luke was the beneficiary of a bye and now comes in as a longer than 2/1 dog against back to underrated Ratajski. This seems a little bit unfair on Luke, who's performing pretty solidly and just missing out on some wins a fair few times. Projection actually gives Woodhouse 41%, so this is tempting, but there is a big consistency differential, without a read from a first round game I think there's enough uncertainty that I can make a tight no play in this one.

Cross/Wilson - Wilson got through a bit of a plodding game against Engstrom 6-3 and will need to up his game significantly to stand a chance against another underrated player in Cross. Rob comes in at 1/4 and that is exactly where I think it should be, so no play again.

Aspinall/Wattimena - Nathan will look to move through to round three, and he's up against Jermaine who had no trouble with Ross Montgomery, dropping just the one leg. Market is strongly in favour of Aspinall, around 75/25, which is underrating Jermaine somewhat - 0.1u Wattimena 11/4, he seems above 35% in my projections so it's worth a shot.

Bunting/Bialecki - Another game that's similarly priced - Bunting is doing alright for himself this season and comes in against the young sensation Bialecki, who took out Mervyn King in a game with a few missed doubles all over the place. The price is the same as the match above, but this time it feels fair, Sebastian certainly isn't drawing dead but has some chances, albeit only about one in four.

Heta/Rydz - Two players within the FRH top 20 face off in the afternoon, Heta's another player that's hugely underrated still despite having just won the World Cup, and Rydz is sticking around just in the top 20 and added another grand yesterday with a solid display against Worsley, getting a nice 125 out all on the bull. Looks about two to one in favour of Damon for me, he's a little bit longer than that but nowhere near enough to consider a bet.

Searle/Lukeman - Good matchup this, Searle was making big breakthroughs late in 2021, but has been a little bit quiet this year, whereas Martin was making small progress late in 2021 but 2022 has been the breakthrough year, and was given a decent test by John Michael yesterday but came through in ten legs. Market thinks Searle a little bit more than two in three, that looks close enough to right, I've got it 70/30 in favour of Ryan, Lukeman's got some good results but statistically isn't quite at the levels you might think.

de Sousa/Plaisier - Jose could do with a win here as he's lacked some results of late, he'll face Plaisier who eliminated Jamie Hughes in a good standard back and forth game, not a bad opponent for Wesley who'll look to add more money to increase his European Championship chances, which with some future associate qualifiers already in the books, he kind of needs to do now. Another 2-1 game favouriting the seed, I think I can take another small flier here, 0.1u Plaisier 7/4, I'm seeing well over 40%, good first round performance, playing with confidence, this is a bit similar to the Woodhouse non-punt except all the intangibles are the other way around.

Dobey/Wenig - Lukas was probably the surprise of round one with his win over Steve Lennon, and now faces Chris Dobey, another tough opponent. Seems strongly in favour of Chris this one, I'd go 2/9 if I was setting the book, he's a little bit longer than that at 2/7, it's not really inspiring enough to take a shot though.

Evening session very shortly.

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