Friday 24 May 2024

Day 1 evening session

Harju/Wade - Teemu is a name I've seen around on the Nordic lists for a bit now, have a handful of legs of data on him which float around the high 70's per turn, which isn't really going to trouble someone like Wade in the slightest. I'm almost half tempted to play given the odds - 1/8 is widely available, which I don't think is that ridiculous at all.

Blom/Joyce - Moreno's the last of the qualifiers from yesterday to play, it's someone I've got 30-something legs on, and his numbers are pretty much bang on 80. That's not going to give Ryan any issues, 1/4 given current form doesn't seem too outlandish, although maybe Blom is a tad better than the data I have given yesterday. Great performance against Telnekes in the opener, again like Mol it's probably the case that he got his hardest game first, but unlike Mol, Moreno was consistently in the high 80's throughout the remainder. Think there's enough uncertainty that I can just avoid this one.

de Decker/Doets - Good game against two still fairly young players who are battling it out on the periphery of the Matchplay race, and you kind of feel it's a must win for both. This'd be one I'd pay to see, I was initially "wait, that can't be right" when I saw a projection giving Kevin less than a one in four chance, but while there is a little bit of a consistency issue, his numbers have dropped off alarmingly and he does appear to have quietly gone out of form. I'll use the consistency and give him the benefit of the doubt to not fire on Mike, we can only get 8/15 anyway which is alright but if I drag the actual projection down to, say, 70/30 (and I find it hard to say with a straight face that Doets would actually have less chances than that), it's not really what I'd need.

Cullen/Wattimena - Let's see if Joe can get another bit of a run going here, he's up against a home player in Jermaine which will always give that little bit extra, which might make a difference. I've got this tight, Joe's projecting 55/45 but Jermaine has enough of a consistency advantage that he actually has the higher points per turn in the sample. Nobody's offering significantly longer than evens on Wattimena, looks like a flip to me, so no real bets here.

Meikle/Woodhouse - Ryan's shown the odd flash over the past few weeks after having a real rough time of it, while Luke's looking to get the critical wins to get over the line and into Blackpool. This actually projects close - Meikle only being the slight dog, that said he has an enormous consistency number (bad), so I think I've got to bring him down a few points for that, it's the sort of number where you feel Luke's going to get a couple of free legs which could cost the match. At numbers approaching 7/4 I might have a small personal play for some funking value, but it seems dangerous to recommend as a general bet.

van Barneveld/Menzies - Raymond's looking like he's probably going to be safe for Blackpool following getting a tour title earlier in the year, but probably could do with a couple more wins here and there to make things completely sure, making the final day here would surely be enough, while Cameron's a little bit back and needs to go on a run somewhere to close down what will be a 10k gap after Wade (surely) wins earlier in the session. He absolutely is good enough to do so, Wright as a seed here is somewhat of an opening, and I'm seeing a projection in the low 60's. That's more than enough to bet at the price offered - 0.25u Menzies 10/11

Rydz/van Duijvenbode - God, this one is going to be hard to call, Callan's a tad all over the place and we still don't really know where Dirk is at. The market's having similar issues, giving Rydz the tiny edge, I've got Dirk as ever so slightly better, but this one could really be anywhere. Easy enough to avoid, I don't have the edge needed on Dirk even if I was confident in the numbers, which I'm not.

van den Bergh/Clemens - This is the third time we've seen this game on the Euro Tour this season, and Dimi's won the previous two in deciding legs. This intuitively feels close, I've got it as no more than 51/49 in the Belgian's favour, I guess it's that tight that the play is to see who wins the bull and bet 6-5 correct score on them?

So really little to add here. We'll keep betting Menzies until his form drops massively or he binks something it seems like.

No comments:

Post a Comment